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undersupply

Ft Says Stagnation

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Just have a 5 minute read through what the papers said during the last crash here--->http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/frequentl...d-questions.php

Make a nice cup of tea (or coffee) and chill... happy in the knowledge that the media just talks crap.

They only write what is topical at the time, be it positive news when things look grim and negative reports when things are going well.

Accept what you see with your own eyes which are real price reductions in the market, EA's under pressure and increased forced sales.

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Just have a 5 minute read through what the papers said during the last crash here--->http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/frequentl...d-questions.php

Make a nice cup of tea (or coffee) and chill... happy in the knowledge that the media just talks crap.

They only write what is topical at the time, be it positive news when things look grim and negative reports when things are going well.

Accept what you see with your own eyes which are real price reductions in the market, EA's under pressure and increased forced sales.

EA's are only interested in selling property, so they reduce exorbitant prices to con-vince buyers to buy.These are not "real" price drops.

Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove, FT, and LR measure house prices and these give a truer picture when you take them all together over a 3 month period.

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I note the BBC's business page is somewhat quiet about this survey reporting a fall in annual HPI. The land registry and Halifax figures have had the full "signs of recovery in the housing market" treatment, and a prominent link, in the last few weeks. :angry:

Edited by Leodhasach

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Just have a 5 minute read through what the papers said during the last crash here--->http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/frequentl...d-questions.php

Where do you think we are now in terms of newsflow/sentiment? Somewhere around 1990-1991?

Not sure where we are on that timeline in terms of the figures, if we assume year-on-year HPI is currently zero. Eg taking the average of Hometrack's asking prices -3.5% YoY and Land registry's sold prices +3.5% YoY.

It's tricky because last time the bullish headlines continued even when the year-on-year stats went negative, which seems telling in itself....

18 months ago, the idea of 0% annual HPI would have been unthinkable wouldn't it? Seems to have been a huge shock to consumers at least, who seem to have realised double digit HPI won't continue forever after all and they'd better curb their spending habits and think of another way to save for retirement.

Maybe an HPC feels unlikely now (outside HPC.co.uk), but in 18 months time we'll look back and think differently?

Edited by geranium

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No one wins or loses...

But....

Delayed figures.

Now going into the worst 6 months for the property market on it's seasonal cycle.

Sentiment is now negative in the general population.

transacton numbers massively down on last year.

So I'd declare those figures an early 1-0 for the bears. And I'd say there are many more goals coming their way.

Nomadd

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But....

Delayed figures.

Now going into the worst 6 months for the property market on it's seasonal cycle.

Sentiment is now negative in the general population.

transacton numbers massively down on last year.

So I'd declare those figures an early 1-0 for the bears. And I'd say there are many more goals coming their way.

Nomadd

Hmmm - you've been renting for 17 years so it's a bit rich claiming "an early 1-0". For a 25yr old perhaps. But in your life you're about 13-4 behind.

At your time of life you should be living almost cost free with a nice wedge of equity behind you.

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I note the BBC's business page is somewhat quiet about this survey reporting a fall in annual HPI. The land registry and Halifax figures have had the full "signs of recovery in the housing market" treatment, and a prominent link, in the last few weeks. :angry:

Amazing isn't it. The FT survey is the most reliable indicator of prices paid in the housing market, yet the BBC ignores it completely - not bullish enough I guess.

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Amazing isn't it. The FT survey is the most reliable indicator of prices paid in the housing market, yet the BBC ignores it completely - not bullish enough I guess.

Indeed. My attitude to some of the UberBears who claimed that the BBC is controlled by BTLs and Gordon Brown used to be "get a grip!!" Now I'm starting to wonder... :o

Just off to check for bugs under my office desk now - I'm getting too close to the truth, and Gordy might have me erased.... :lol:

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Hmmm - you've been renting for 17 years so it's a bit rich claiming "an early 1-0". For a 25yr old perhaps. But in your life you're about 13-4 behind.

At your time of life you should be living almost cost free with a nice wedge of equity behind you.

Is that going on the London Loser theory that the normal age to buy is 8?

Edited by since the beginning

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EA's are only interested in selling property, so they reduce exorbitant prices to con-vince buyers to buy.These are not "real" price drops.

Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove, FT, and LR measure house prices and these give a truer picture when you take them all together over a 3 month period.

Houses I've been watching in my area over the last 9 months show a true picture of the market, albeit only in north Liverpool. I firmly believe that different areas will have already seen a change, or will in the near future. With regards to your point about the major trusted (if that can be used in this context) reports, barring the Land Registry report (which imo is at least 3 months behind todays market) the others have vested interests in property. I do not believe they can be relied upon for any truth whatsoever, considering there are potentially billions of pounds at stake.

Whats a little white lie in comparison to ££££?

Edited by Nem

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Houses I've been watching in my area over the last 9 months show a true picture of the market, albeit only in north Liverpool. I firmly believe that different areas will have already seen a change, or will in the near future. With regards to your point about the major trusted (if that can be used in this context) reports, barring the Land Registry report (which imo is at least 3 months behind todays market) the others have vested interests in property. I do not believe they can be relied upon for any truth whatsoever, considering there are potentially billions of pounds at stake.

Whats a little white lie in comparison to ££££?

Hmmm,

Thats a conspiracy step too far , all those surveys are listed on this site as are the news reports from the last crash, which you pointed out.

If they had no credibility surely this site would be the first to ignore them.

Can't see how the FT have a vested interest, maybe you can explain.

Surely stagnation is the worst case scenario for vested interests as the volume of sales falls. falling house prices would increase the volume of sales, if the laws of supply and demand apply.

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Indeed. My attitude to some of the UberBears who claimed that the BBC is controlled by BTLs and Gordon Brown used to be "get a grip!!" Now I'm starting to wonder... :o

Just off to check for bugs under my office desk now - I'm getting too close to the truth, and Gordy might have me erased.... :lol:

Sentiment really is the key driver. What I think is really telling is that in a technically "neutral" market, i.e. neither rising nor falling, people's view is really quite downbeat. And I don't mean HPCers here, I mean the general populace. Hooked on ever-rising prices, even a stagnant market causes them untold difficulties.

HPCers have argued this point for a while now, it doesn't take forced selling, unemployment or IR rises to kick off the downward spiral. A simple stall will set the car rolling backwards... the MEW juice has run out, and gravity exerts once more.

as for the beeb, well...! I don't go for out and out conspiracies, covert telephone calls and sneaky memoes and the like. More that they are institutionally scared of the government, particularly after the Hutton Report - oh, and the journos & editors have all cashed in on the boom and feel-good Britain. They're as scared of it ending as the readership are

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If such an equilibrium was to be found by decreasing prices and more buyers, I would expect prices to drop from their current levels by about 30%. At this point you would expect a dramatic rise in the proportion of FTB's, which would then help current homeowners more up a rung. However, in the last 6 months we've seen a small chunk of recently mortgaged owners really feeling the pressure. To quote GB we're still in the "Boom" phase, so what is the catalyst for the increased pressure and phenomenal increase in reposessions?

Fuel prices and inflation aren't as low as we've had for the last few years, but they're far from budget breaking increases at least imo. I certainly don't see this being the stick that broke the camels back, when it comes to paying your mortgage. It can only be because people have overstretched themselves to breaking point. Ok.. people have been doing this for years, yet from the timing it seems to be trying in at the end of fixed rate terms and the increased payments eek away at any disposable income that have left people at breaking point financially. As time has gone on the ability to mortgage above your means has got easier and easier. In the next year we should see even more increases in the amount of forced sales.

All of this is just pure speculation of course, as I'm no rocket scientist nor DrBub but I can see things happening. Should the market be more or less in the same position next year, I'll be the first person to say "Hey! I was wrong" however I'm more inclined at the moment to say the current confidence in the market is just propped up by spin.

Edited by Nem

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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