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Gas Is Running Low As Chill Continues


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Did anybody see this from the Department of Energy and Climate Change?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/policies-are-putting-a-cushion-between-energy-prices-and-household-bills-davey

Apparently by raising our energy prices they are in fact reducing them!

I read a good critique of this and have copied it below.

Department of Energy and Climate Change

There is food for thought in the title of the ministry itself but it has released a document today of which the central message is this.

Recent increases in energy bills have mainly been driven by rising international prices for fossil fuels, particularly gas, not energy and climate change policies

So we have an immediately application here of Jim Hacker’s

Never believe anything until it is officially denied

After all gas prices in the United States halved according to the EIA which unless I am wrong is not a rise and is also international!

Still energy minister Ed Davey is not deterred by such a reality as under his own name he tells us this.

Global gas price hikes are squeezing households. They are beyond any government’s control

Perhaps he should talk to the United States government!

If we move on from his rhetoric I spotted this in the release.

The picture for businesses is less positive

As (if we move on from Ed Davey’s fantasies) the picture for households has been price rise after price rise we wonder how things could be worse or excuse me “less positive”. We soon find out.

Businesses that are medium-sized users of energy currently face energy (gas plus electricity) costs that are on average 21% higher as a result of policies. By 2020 they will be 22% higher as a result of policies.

Large energy-intensive users currently face energy costs that are on average between 1 and 14% higher as a result of policies. By 2020 the impact is estimated to be between 6 and 36%.

As one of the issues facing our economy is how we can be more competitive going forwards there is plainly an issue here. After all we have just seen released today another poor set of trade figures for 2012 as a whole to remind us of the importance of this subject.

In 2012, the UK’s current account deficit was £57.7 billion.

If I may briefly refer to other themes,re-balancing anyone?

Number Crunching

We are told that official policy will reduce bills by £416 per annum in 2020. As I peruse the list I am intrigued as to how I will save £71 per annum via building regulations as you see I live in a property built in the 19th century?! Also how the “products policies” I have never heard of will save me £166 per annum? Or how having a Smart Meter will save me money?! I also recall a conversation with the heating engineer I have found to be reliable on the new “efficient” condensing boilers “It might last ten years if you are lucky and they give me plenty of work…” which did not exactly fill me with confidence.

On the other side of the balance sheet we see that official policies are expected to raise prices by some £258 per annum. These do look substantial and likely as opposed to the fantasies in the benefits column.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/what-on-earth-is-happening-with-uk-energy-policy-and-prices/

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another 300 yesterday.

2600 left.

Presumably they have fixed the pipeline now. Does anyone know?

Update.

Normally Britain can store up to 15 days' gas supply, but that has run down to a few days amid freezing weather. While that is not an immediate problem because Britain is constantly importing gas and is also producing some gas from the North Sea, fears of a fuel crunch were heightened on Friday morning when a pump failure caused the temporary shutdown of the UK-Belgium pipeline. The gas was flowing again by noon but not before the British wholesale gas price soared by more than 50% to 150p a therm, with the price stabilising to about 100p when the pipeline reopened.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/22/wholesale-gas-prices-soar-after-pipeline-forced-to-close

Edited by Secure Tenant
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Presumably they have fixed the pipeline now. Does anyone know?

Update.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/22/wholesale-gas-prices-soar-after-pipeline-forced-to-close

That's last friday not this friday.

But your point is valid. If there is an interupt once stock hits zero we have problems.

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Denmark has one of the smallest, most monocultural populations of any European country (it uses its language as a political tool with which to keep immigration close to zero - try asking for a benefit application form translated into Hindi and you won't get very far). While it certainly isn't an autarky, a higher proportion of its GDP is consumed internally than with most other developed countries. The products and services it does sell overseas are mainly niche market products in relatively small quantities and with a customer base that is largely immune to economic volatility, e.g. tourism, premium agricultural products (e.g. cheese and bacon), medicines, high-end consumer electronics and designer furniture (oh, and not to mention wind turbines - Denmark is the world's biggest exporter of the things). Fishing and aviation in The Faroes and Greenland bring in a significant amount, too.

In short, due largely to a combination of good luck and policies that would be deemed unacceptable by the international community if we tried them (e.g. demanding that all immigrants, including intra-EU ones, pass an 'A' level in English language at grade A*, or IELTS level 7.5, before being allowed to live and work here), the Danish economy can absorb the extra-costs imposed by the eco-Nazis. That, in turn, is why it is one of the few places in the world where they are taken seriously.

Not to mention the massive contribution to its GDP and trade balance generated by a certain shipping company beginning with M.

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another 300 yesterday.

2600 left.

Stocked jumped yesterday to 2850, up by 250, what with factories and offices closed and everyone leaving the heating off and going out for the day.

I don't know how cold it will be this week, but it reasonable to say we will be could be running on willpower by Friday.

It's not unknown for us to use 600 from stock a day.

Long term stocks are at 1%. Effectively ZERO. 2300 in "medium term" stocks is about 25% - at max flow that would last 3 days. Short-term stock is effectively zero... just a small amount used to maintain even pressure.

Edited by RufflesTheGuineaPig
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Stocked jumped yesterday to 2850, up by 250, what with factories and offices closed and everyone leaving the heating off and going out for the day.

I don't know how cold it will be this week, but it reasonable to say we will be could be running on willpower by Friday.

It's not unknown for us to use 600 from stock a day.

Long term stocks are at 1%. Effectively ZERO. 2300 in "medium term" stocks is about 25% - at max flow that would last 3 days. Short-term stock is effectively zero... just a small amount used to maintain even pressure.

Ah, but it looks like LNG is tracked separately? LNG is up to 636 mcm following recent deliveries from Qatar - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/02/uk-britain-gas-price-idUKBRE93107U20130402

Guess we'll just have to save the popcorn until next time

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Guess we'll just have to save the popcorn until next time

Wow, who would have guessed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9967019/UK-prompt-gas-prices-slide-by-up-to-15pc.html

Gas prices slid by up to 15pc on Tuesday to a two-week low as flows from North Sea pipelines and stocks of liquefied natural (LNG) gas at terminals rose sharply, although cold weather was expected to drive demand until next week.

So apparently we are not going to run out in 6 days as originally promised. Even though it's still freezing.

It's almost as if it was always b0llocks about "running out". Just traders trying to manipulate the price.

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Ah, but it looks like LNG is tracked separately? LNG is up to 636 mcm following recent deliveries from Qatar - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/02/uk-britain-gas-price-idUKBRE93107U20130402

Guess we'll just have to save the popcorn until next time

LNG enters the gas system at a vastly reduced rate compared to other sources as regasification capacity in limited.

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Wow, who would have guessed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9967019/UK-prompt-gas-prices-slide-by-up-to-15pc.html

So apparently we are not going to run out in 6 days as originally promised. Even though it's still freezing.

It's almost as if it was always b0llocks about "running out". Just traders trying to manipulate the price.

Someone's counting chickens.

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Restarting the system after a pressure drop requires them to turn off every mains gas valve in the affected area and turn them back on one at a time, a street at a time, after engineers have visited every single premises in that street. I kid yee not. It happened Christmas 2011 to a small town. A few thousand houses. They had to draft in hundreds of gas engineers from across the country, who worked round the clock over the Christmas period reconnecting customers. With all the manpower they could get, it took over a week.

Presumably if it ever did happen on a national scale they'd have to find some way to shortcut it; possibly emergency legislation requiring every household to turn off their own gas valves and not to turn them back on until instructed to do so.

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Presumably if it ever did happen on a national scale they'd have to find some way to shortcut it; possibly emergency legislation requiring every household to turn off their own gas valves and not to turn them back on until instructed to do so.

Can't do it. Some people won't know how to, some people won't be home, some people will simply ignore it.

If we optimistically assume just 1% of people are out, 1% of people do it wrong and 1% don't bother, that's 3%. My small town has 4000 houses. That means 120 houses would become potential bombs. In a tiny town.

The ONLY way to do it is to go door to door.

Remember that in recent years we've seen the damage a gas-leak explosion can do.

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Can't do it. Some people won't know how to, some people won't be home, some people will simply ignore it.

If we optimistically assume just 1% of people are out, 1% of people do it wrong and 1% don't bother, that's 3%. My small town has 4000 houses. That means 120 houses would become potential bombs. In a tiny town.

The ONLY way to do it is to go door to door.

Remember that in recent years we've seen the damage a gas-leak explosion can do.

The problem is that given the costs and timescale you've described a few "granny bombs" might be the price we have to pay.

Hypothetically one could require everyone to switch off by say next Sunday, have a week of random spot inspections (backed up with £5,000 fines for anyone who ignores it) and a massive publicity campaign encouraging people to check with neighbours and elderly relatives.

The alternative is tens of thousands of deaths from the cold.

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The problem is that given the costs and timescale you've described a few "granny bombs" might be the price we have to pay.

Hypothetically one could require everyone to switch off by say next Sunday, have a week of random spot inspections (backed up with £5,000 fines for anyone who ignores it) and a massive publicity campaign encouraging people to check with neighbours and elderly relatives.

The alternative is tens of thousands of deaths from the cold.

Yes I know. What you need to realise is one person cocking up and blowing their house up tends to take down 3 or 4 houses either side and smash every window in the street.

The fact is no-one has any idea what they could do. I imagine they would argue about if for a few days then f*ck it up. Probably try your plan, have several houses blow up and some kids die, then revert back to visiting every house in the country.

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Presumably if it ever did happen on a national scale they'd have to find some way to shortcut it; possibly emergency legislation requiring every household to turn off their own gas valves and not to turn them back on until instructed to do so.

If they cut the gas supply to large industrial consumers then turn off all the CCGT and run rolling power cuts this will reduce both industrial and domestic demand (as most boilers wont work without electricity) to a level at which domestic production plus limited imports will suffice.

Many of the CCGT can switch to burning fuel distillate although there would need to be some form of pricing mechanism to make it viable.

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If they cut the gas supply to large industrial consumers then turn off all the CCGT and run rolling power cuts this will reduce both industrial and domestic demand (as most boilers wont work without electricity) to a level at which domestic production plus limited imports will suffice.

Many of the CCGT can switch to burning fuel distillate although there would need to be some form of pricing mechanism to make it viable.

Yeah I said this a few pages back. Essentially you have rolling blackouts before the gas gets cut off.

There is, however a chance of a gas cut-off were pipeline imports from France/Norway to cease completely.

It's why most countries have strategic reserves... so the can't be held over a barrel by the guys next door.

The big question in my mind is... "how much gas do the French have in stock".

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Restarting the system after a pressure drop requires them to turn off every mains gas valve in the affected area and turn them back on one at a time, a street at a time, after engineers have visited every single premises in that street. I kid yee not. It happened Christmas 2011 to a small town. A few thousand houses. They had to draft in hundreds of gas engineers from across the country, who worked round the clock over the Christmas period reconnecting customers. With all the manpower they could get, it took over a week.

Water got into the gas main.......every gas meter had to be changed and as you said each household turned on one at a time. ;)

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Apparently there was water coming out of the back of some of the gas cookers. ;)

That's a lot of water.

I imagine all the cookers and boilers needed work too.

But anyways, a large part of the problem is when you turn the gas back on, people have left stuff switched on.

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  • 429 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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