George Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Check it periodically against American and Canadian dollar. Its dropped about 20% since I last checked!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Control Freak Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Check it periodically against American and Canadian dollar. Its dropped about 20% since I last checked!!!!! Are you sure you don't mean 2% ?? It is 1.74 at the moment, and has not been above 1.95 this year. If the last time you checked was around the 1920's then I guess you could be correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashIsUnderWay Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 The rest of the world is showing what they think of our MPC policy. And by so doing, they will eventually change it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Check it periodically against American and Canadian dollar. Its dropped about 20% since I last checked!!!!! Just look at the relationship between the $ IR and £ IR they are a bit close for comfort. Besides the UK has had about 12 months of increasingly bad economic news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geranium Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Are you sure you don't mean 2% ?? It is 1.74 at the moment, and has not been above 1.95 this year. If the last time you checked was around the 1920's then I guess you could be correct Isn't 1.95 down to 1.74 a drop of nearly 11%? I guess the real question is - at what point does the MPC get concerned about a weaker £ and put up interest rates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Isn't 1.95 down to 1.74 a drop of nearly 11%? I guess the real question is - at what point does the MPC get concerned about a weaker £ and put up interest rates? I suspect the MPC would like to see the £ slide a bit further to help UK exporters, but if it goes too far inflation will run away. Personnally I think they are taking a risk of the £ tanking against the $ if the $ IR passes the £IR. A distinct possibility at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tempest Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 We could see some fireworks in the currency markets I suspect if, as is expected, MPC holds rates tomorrow at 4.50% and the Fed tightens .25% to 4.25% in Dec and another 0.25% in Jan/Feb. Interest rate parity. I don't care what concerns exist about US deficits/economy etc at the same rates I would have thought investors would prefer dollars at that time. Or do the F/X experts here think this is all priced in? We haven't had a run on the pound for a while. Would spice up the back end of winter and set things up nicely for the spring housing market... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Posted November 9, 2005 Author Share Posted November 9, 2005 Are you sure you don't mean 2% ?? It is 1.74 at the moment, and has not been above 1.95 this year. If the last time you checked was around the 1920's then I guess you could be correct No 20% about from Candian dollar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
werewolves Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 (edited) No 20% about from Candian dollar. Ooooh, I see... The Canadian (Moosey) dollar. And I thought that you had lost the plot. My apologies... Edited November 9, 2005 by werewolves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shermanator Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Well, it's obvious that investors believe that British interest rates are not going to rise, especially in relation to the USD. Consumer spending is weak, housing market has stagnated and inflation is benign. Funny, at the beginning of the year most 'experts' were predicting the USD had a one-way ticket downwards. Just proves my point, that if everyone has bought into a certain position, the opposite will happen. I'm still quietly confident with my prediction of a hybrid Japanese style deflation, coupled with Argentinian style debt default/ruination of greedy middle classes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murpaul Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Ooooh, I see... The Canadian (Moosey) dollar. And I thought that you had lost the plot. My apologies... Can anyone see why, other than that the MPC are a bunch of muppets, is there anything to cause Canadian to rise so dramatically? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 No 20% about from Candian dollar. It was 2.04 beginning of October. 2.07 today. Strong employment figures and prospect of higher rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IPOD Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 (edited) Can anyone see why, other than that the MPC are a bunch of muppets, is there anything to cause the Canadian dollar to rise so dramatically? Apart from record high natural gas and oil prices, you mean? (Canada produces a lot of both) Edited November 9, 2005 by IPOD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted November 9, 2005 Share Posted November 9, 2005 Apart from record high natural gas and oil prices, you mean? (Canada produces a lot of both) As far as I'm aware they import none. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IPOD Posted November 10, 2005 Share Posted November 10, 2005 As far as I'm aware they import none. This is not strictly correct, they do import some, but very small amounts: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/canada.html ENERGY OVERVIEW Minister of Natural Resources: John Efford Oil Reserves (2005E): 178.8 billion barrels (of which 95% are oil sands) Oil Production (2004E): 3.1 million bbl/d, of which 2.4 million bbl/d was crude oil Oil Consumption (2004E): 2.3 million bbl/d Net Oil Exports (2004E): 0.8 million bbl/d Oil Exports to the United States (Jan. - Nov. 2004E): 2.1 million bbl/d, of which 1.6 million bbl/d was crude oil Oil Imports from the United States (Jan. - Nov. 2004): 155,000 bbl/d, of which 24,000 bbl/d was crude oil Natural Gas Reserves (1/1/05E): 56.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) Natural Gas Production (2002E): 6.6 Tcf Natural Gas Consumption (2002E): 3.0 Tcf Net Natural Gas Exports (2002E): 3.6 Tcf Natural Gas Exports to the United States (Jan. – Oct. 2004): 2.9 Tcf Natural Gas Imports from the United States (Jan. – Oct. 2004): 0.2 Tcf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILikeBigBoobs Posted November 10, 2005 Share Posted November 10, 2005 The Pound is actually quite strong and on a rising trend against the Euro and Yen, mainly due to IR expectations. Commentators do seem to think it's around 10% overvalued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted November 10, 2005 Share Posted November 10, 2005 (edited) since it was devalued in 1948 from $4 to $2.80 the subsequent drop in the pound has been solely due to higher inflation here in the intervening period....even though there have been blips along the way eg 1985 when it fell to $1.05!..................Vis a vis the Swiss Franc the story is different..Dropped from about 16 SF to about 2.40SF!....same with Japanese Yen Edited November 10, 2005 by Michael Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockdoctor Posted November 10, 2005 Share Posted November 10, 2005 Canada has lots of commodities (not just oil and gas). Benefit of a huge land area encompassing some very old rocks (lots of time to get mineralised). Commodities are booming so their economy gets stronger and takes the currency with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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