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George

What The Hell Has Happened To The Pound?

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Check it periodically against American and Canadian dollar. Its dropped about 20% since I last checked!!!!!

Are you sure you don't mean 2% ??

It is 1.74 at the moment, and has not been above 1.95 this year. If the last time you checked was around the 1920's then I guess you could be correct :)

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Check it periodically against American and Canadian dollar. Its dropped about 20% since I last checked!!!!!

Just look at the relationship between the $ IR and £ IR they are a bit close for comfort. Besides the UK has had about 12 months of increasingly bad economic news.

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Are you sure you don't mean 2% ??

It is 1.74 at the moment, and has not been above 1.95 this year. If the last time you checked was around the 1920's then I guess you could be correct :)

Isn't 1.95 down to 1.74 a drop of nearly 11%?

I guess the real question is - at what point does the MPC get concerned about a weaker £ and put up interest rates?

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Isn't 1.95 down to 1.74 a drop of nearly 11%?

I guess the real question is - at what point does the MPC get concerned about a weaker £ and put up interest rates?

I suspect the MPC would like to see the £ slide a bit further to help UK exporters, but if it goes too far inflation will run away. Personnally I think they are taking a risk of the £ tanking against the $ if the $ IR passes the £IR. A distinct possibility at the moment.

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We could see some fireworks in the currency markets I suspect if, as is expected, MPC holds rates tomorrow at 4.50% and the Fed tightens .25% to 4.25% in Dec and another 0.25% in Jan/Feb. Interest rate parity. I don't care what concerns exist about US deficits/economy etc at the same rates I would have thought investors would prefer dollars at that time. Or do the F/X experts here think this is all priced in?

We haven't had a run on the pound for a while. Would spice up the back end of winter and set things up nicely for the spring housing market... :)

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Are you sure you don't mean 2% ??

It is 1.74 at the moment, and has not been above 1.95 this year. If the last time you checked was around the 1920's then I guess you could be correct :)

No 20% about from Candian dollar.

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No 20% about from Candian dollar.

Ooooh, I see... The Canadian (Moosey) dollar.

And I thought that you had lost the plot. My apologies...

:o

Edited by werewolves

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Well, it's obvious that investors believe that British interest rates are not going to rise, especially in relation to the USD. Consumer spending is weak, housing market has stagnated and inflation is benign.

Funny, at the beginning of the year most 'experts' were predicting the USD had a one-way ticket downwards. Just proves my point, that if everyone has bought into a certain position, the opposite will happen.

I'm still quietly confident with my prediction of a hybrid Japanese style deflation, coupled with Argentinian style debt default/ruination of greedy middle classes.

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Ooooh, I see... The Canadian (Moosey) dollar.

And I thought that you had lost the plot. My apologies...

:o

Can anyone see why, other than that the MPC are a bunch of muppets, is there anything to cause Canadian to rise so dramatically?

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No 20% about from Candian dollar.

It was 2.04 beginning of October. 2.07 today.

Strong employment figures and prospect of higher rates.

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Can anyone see why, other than that the MPC are a bunch of muppets, is there anything to cause the Canadian dollar to rise so dramatically?

Apart from record high natural gas and oil prices, you mean? (Canada produces a lot of both)

Edited by IPOD

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Apart from record high natural gas and oil prices, you mean? (Canada produces a lot of both)

As far as I'm aware they import none.

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As far as I'm aware they import none.

This is not strictly correct, they do import some, but very small amounts:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/canada.html

ENERGY OVERVIEW

Minister of Natural Resources: John Efford

Oil Reserves (2005E): 178.8 billion barrels (of which 95% are oil sands)

Oil Production (2004E): 3.1 million bbl/d, of which 2.4 million bbl/d was crude oil

Oil Consumption (2004E): 2.3 million bbl/d

Net Oil Exports (2004E): 0.8 million bbl/d

Oil Exports to the United States (Jan. - Nov. 2004E): 2.1 million bbl/d, of which 1.6 million bbl/d was crude oil

Oil Imports from the United States (Jan. - Nov. 2004): 155,000 bbl/d, of which 24,000 bbl/d was crude oil

Natural Gas Reserves (1/1/05E): 56.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)

Natural Gas Production (2002E): 6.6 Tcf

Natural Gas Consumption (2002E): 3.0 Tcf

Net Natural Gas Exports (2002E): 3.6 Tcf

Natural Gas Exports to the United States (Jan. – Oct. 2004): 2.9 Tcf

Natural Gas Imports from the United States (Jan. – Oct. 2004): 0.2 Tcf

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since it was devalued in 1948 from $4 to $2.80 the subsequent drop in the pound has been solely due to higher inflation here in the intervening period....even though there have been blips along the way eg 1985 when it fell to $1.05!..................Vis a vis the Swiss Franc the story is different..Dropped from about 16 SF to about 2.40SF!....same with Japanese Yen

Edited by Michael

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Canada has lots of commodities (not just oil and gas). Benefit of a huge land area encompassing some very old rocks (lots of time to get mineralised).

Commodities are booming so their economy gets stronger and takes the currency with it.

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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