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Smurf1976

Auckland Appartments Crash

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http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=348

Another one from Oz EA Neil Jenman. It seems that Auckland (New Zealand) is crashing...

...

Apartments that once sold for $200,000 are now reported to be selling for “under $130,000”.

Last month, respected New Zealand property analyst, Kieran Trass, predicted that Auckland apartment prices would fall by up to 40 per cent by the end of 2006

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http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=348

Another one from Oz EA Neil Jenman. It seems that Auckland (New Zealand) is crashing...

...

Apartments that once sold for $200,000 are now reported to be selling for “under $130,000”.

Last month, respected New Zealand property analyst, Kieran Trass, predicted that Auckland apartment prices would fall by up to 40 per cent by the end of 2006

Yep, a classic example of over supply to a market (chinese students in particular) that has just disappeared. The worst thing is that there are thousands more to be completed. You can image the scene in 5 years time, there'll be acres of appartment blocks; empty or being used as crack dens, it'll look like some grim eastern european sink estate. The NZ housing market in general is still going though, although floating rates are now over 9%. My view it's still speculation, particularly in the regions combined with healthy employment rates. Imbalance in the economy is massive though and will only take one shock for things to turn sour IMO.

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40% by the end 2006. Now that's a crash!

I like the name of the site too "Promoting ethics in real estate!" Fat chance, :lol: but you have to admire the guy for trying.

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Fascinating stuff - 35% fall in that particular flat. As NZ and Oz seem to be 12 months ahead of us this is - say it in a Mr. Burns voice - excellent news.

Standby for similar things happening right across Wales.

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A friends is thinking of investing in Wellington New Zealand, does anyone have any info on what the house market is like there? He is aware of Aucklands problems but is not worried by it.

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A friends is thinking of investing in Wellington New Zealand, does anyone have any info on what the house market is like there? He is aware of Aucklands problems but is not worried by it.

Like everywhere else, wellington has boomed in the past 5-6 years. Not sure what the exact average price is now but tstats can be found at http://www.realenz.co.nz.

Some very expensive areas of the city; Roseneath, Wadestown, Oriental bay etc where properties run into the millions. May have done its dash here. Other areas on the outskirts not so overpriced but have to be very selective.

Hose prices MAY hold up well. Reasons:

Economic

1. Is the capital and as such holds government - average salary is high and alot of investment is going into the city.

2. Good university city, will always be a call for student rents.

3. HOWEVER, do not underestimate the trend to move business out of Wellington for places such as Auckland or Australia. Wellington is the a*se end of nowhere and the weather sucks. The airport is closed frequently in the winter because of storms and fog.

4. Peter Jackson has had massive effects on areas such as Miramar.

Geographic

1. Wellington is trapped between the sea and hills, there is limited land and there is one road in and out. God help them if there's a major earthquake. Therefore land in the city will always be in demand as long as 3 above doesn't happen. Gettting into the city from outside is therefore a pain.

Generally good but would not rush in at the moment, if you do be very selective. My view property will come off over the next few years.

LL

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Like everywhere else, wellington has boomed in the past 5-6 years. Not sure what the exact average price is now but tstats can be found at http://www.realenz.co.nz.

Some very expensive areas of the city; Roseneath, Wadestown, Oriental bay etc where properties run into the millions. May have done its dash here. Other areas on the outskirts not so overpriced but have to be very selective.

Hose prices MAY hold up well. Reasons:

Economic

1. Is the capital and as such holds government - average salary is high and alot of investment is going into the city.

2. Good university city, will always be a call for student rents.

3. HOWEVER, do not underestimate the trend to move business out of Wellington for places such as Auckland or Australia. Wellington is the a*se end of nowhere and the weather sucks. The airport is closed frequently in the winter because of storms and fog.

4. Peter Jackson has had massive effects on areas such as Miramar.

Geographic

1. Wellington is trapped between the sea and hills, there is limited land and there is one road in and out. God help them if there's a major earthquake. Therefore land in the city will always be in demand as long as 3 above doesn't happen. Gettting into the city from outside is therefore a pain.

Generally good but would not rush in at the moment, if you do be very selective. My view property will come off over the next few years.

LL

This is old news (discussed before and is isolated -Auckland Apartments) - NZ market is still growing rapidly and the Reserve Bank Governor is getting angry about it. Inflation - particularly wage inflation is rising rapidly and there are more rate rises to come - even in december. The Balance of payments is 8% of GDP and expected to go to 10% by next year or soon after.

NZ is a disaster waiting to happen - last October quarter the NZ economy borrowed 8+ billion dollars. Australia with an economy 6 times larger borroed 4.3 billion - go figure.

I'm a kiwi living in OZ and things are looking very bad over there - do not buy - wellington included - I think 2008 when the boomers retire will trigger even greater falls in house prices as they all cash out at the same time to no buyers in an attempt to fund thier retirement. My feeling is long term - housing is a poor option and even in a crash - I wouldn't buy.

Heard of penny shares? People buy them cos they're cheap - they're cheap for a reason...

Edited by user_s1

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User_s1 - I read that the NZ economy is going really well. The debt is coming from the housing sector with wanna be property moguls lining up for the slaughter a number of whom are Aussie economic geniuses(sp) buying property where the rent exceeds the mortgage (for now) thanks to steve mc knight.

My missus is from Wellington and she says that weather is atrocious. Now living in Sunny Queensland she can't ever imagine living in "windy" wellington where you get up in the dark, cold windy rain to go to work only to return in the dark cold windy rain.

Saying that I'm toying with the idea of moving to the South Island. Something about clean country air and lack of road rage..... :D

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I like the name of the site too "Promoting ethics in real estate!" Fat chance, :lol: but you have to admire the guy for trying.

I appreciate the sentiment but you should take a second look at Inman. I've read their articles regularly for the past year and they're serious about going after the b.s. in the RE business. How many industry insiders would post something like this:

INVESTORS WARNED TO GET OUT QUICK

Sell now before prices fall further.

Despite a massive effort from spivs and spin-doctors, the truth of the property market is becoming clear. The bust is here and it’s likely to get worse. Much worse.

Euphemisms, such as “soft landing” and “correction”, are simply cover-up-cliches for a crash that is constantly being denied.

Well, not any longer.

There’s a new message for property investors who want to get-rich-quick. Get out quick.

Aussie Home Loans chief, John Symond – in an interview with Graham Davis on Channel Nine’s Sunday program – has given a clear warning to property investors. Get out of the market. Do it now and do it fast because the decline in prices “will go on for several years”. The boom is long gone.

Australia’s most respected (and accurate) property analysts, Australian Property Monitors (APM) praised John Symond for speaking so frankly. “A comment like that wouldn’t help his own business, so he’s calling it how he truly sees it,” said APM’s Louis Christopher.

And Sydney’s Daily Telegraph said,“Mr Symond has built his business on trust. So his warning should be heeded.”

But not the spivs. They want us all to keep investing in property.

The Real Estate Institute’s Rowen Kelly fronted the television cameras on the weekend. Like an usher in a burning theatre, Kelly tried vainly to hose the flames burning his commissions.

And in today’s press John Symond is being accussed of “scaremongering”.

Well, he’s probably guilty. If a man sees smoke in a theatre and yells “Fire!” he’s going to scare a lot of people.

And save them.

http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=351

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  • 339 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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