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bambam

Never-Never Land

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My income is six figures, but I get the impression that families we know have two six-figure incomes, which I think makes all the difference. Plus people tend to have kids later and have saved and cashed in on HPI. We've saved, but no HPI gains.

There are enough with not only the million quid house but also an X5 or two.

Not everyone living in the Southeast is glugging champagne on their mew'ed gains... I think there are lots of people on good money just trying to do their best for their kids. I know several (ourselves included) who are taking it steady knowing full well what the future holds...

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Not everyone living in the Southeast is glugging champagne on their mew'ed gains... I think there are lots of people on good money just trying to do their best for their kids. I know several (ourselves included) who are taking it steady knowing full well what the future holds...

I wasn't talking about mewed gains, but just trading up. If you are 45 with two kids and two good incomes, then that million pound house won't have cost you anything like a million, because it will be your second or third house.

I earn good money, but I am 30, and HPI hasn't done anything for me.

The irony of course is that the 45-year-old professional couples haven't made out from HPI either, because they always want a bigger house, which costs relatively more money than it would have done 20 years ago.

And then when the kids grow up, they will be begging for a deposit (absent any HPC).

So there really isn't any wealth created here, not for most people.

Edited by bambam

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I wasn't talking about mewed gains, but just trading up. If you are 45 with two kids and two good incomes, then that million pound house won't have cost you anything like a million, because it will be your second or third house.

I earn good money, but I am 30, and HPI hasn't done anything for me.

The irony of course is that the 45-year-old professional couples haven't made out from HPI either, because they always want a bigger house, which costs relatively more money than it would have done 20 years ago.

And then when the kids grow up, they will be begging for a deposit (absent any HPC).

So there really isn't any wealth created here, not for most people.

I also earn good money, but what good is it really? honestly? I suppose the only good thing is that my wife can stay at home and take care of our kids... Thats it. We'll never move, and we'll save every penny for our kids to make the best of a bad lot.

We need a crash, I don't care if I go into negative equity, we'll all be better off for it... (got about 40% equity but if we crash 90% i still think we'd be better off in the long run).

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Incidentally Woking is not a bad area, better trains than Guildford and much cheaper.

There are a couple of bad estates in/around Guildford, and it doesn't seem to put people off.

Woking has its Pakistani area, which seems to be expanding towards the town centre (as I understand it it's normal to marry in this community a cousin from Pakistan, so presumably numbers would tend to increase year-on-year), but aside from the rather obvious weed (and others, I guess) dealing, they seem pretty harmless.

Town centre is fugly, and not really much in the way of posh shops for ladies who lunch, which Guildford does much better at. Although to live in the centre of Guildford is ridiculously expensive, so I'm not sure how many people really benefit from that, relative to the fact of 10 minutes on the train from Woking to Guildford.

I agree totally. I am constantly banging on to people that they need to think about the exact area that they are living in rather than the town or postcode, but most people think the other way.

In my area, the classic cases are the people who choose to pay £400k for a semi that directly fronts the six-lane A3 Kingston by-pass 'because it is in Surbiton'. It's not in Surbiton, it's actually the other side of Tolworth from Surbiton and they could have bought the same house down a quiet cul-de-sac in Worcester Park for the same money and benefitted from the zone 4 travel.

I love where I live, but if I can't afford that bit of Surbiton, I'd much rather live somewhere totally different instead of live in one of the other parts that I don't like at all.

I wonder how many people are living in the not-so-nice north area of Guildford feeling smug when really they could have a much nicer location in a good part of Woking?

This happens every I guess, but it is obviously intensified because of Surrey-snobbery.

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The irony of course is that the 45-year-old professional couples haven't made out from HPI either, because they always want a bigger house, which costs relatively more money than it would have done 20 years ago.

And then when the kids grow up, they will be begging for a deposit (absent any HPC).

So there really isn't any wealth created here, not for most people.

There are only two groups that have benefitted from HPI.

The first are those who were in their final home before 2000. This is mainly going to be people who are now 60+, because most people who are younger were still scrabbling their way up the 'ladder' by then with the rungs getting wider apart. The younger ones have still ended up with houses worth a fortune, but they have put a hell of a lot more in than the older ones who just sat back and watch their 'investment' grow.

I know people who paid under £250k in the 90s still living in the same house that is worth £1.5m+ today.

The second group tend to be younger, but are BTL or doer-upper investors who have got the timing right with buying and selling.

HPI has been a pain in the a*** for everyone else, not that most of them would admit it!

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I also earn good money, but what good is it really? honestly? I suppose the only good thing is that my wife can stay at home and take care of our kids... Thats it. We'll never move, and we'll save every penny for our kids to make the best of a bad lot.

Good money is almost irrelevant now because you are not 'competing' against other earners to buy houses but instead against people with massive mortgages or big savings accounts from selling other houses (either their own or parents).

Going back to my favourite example from another thread of a local road of £750k+ semis. If there are 60 houses down that road, I'd be surprised is there were more than 2 or 3 with a household income of £200k+, another 10 with £150k+, the next 10 with £100k+ and the other half would earn either nothing or very average salaries. The lack of income makes very little difference to their ability to afford the houses and therefore to the value of those houses.

We need a crash, I don't care if I go into negative equity, we'll all be better off for it... (got about 40% equity but if we crash 90% i still think we'd be better off in the long run).

I agree, but I think a lot needs to change before that can happen, at least in Surrey/SW London. At the moment it seems that every house around here is pounced on as soon as it goes on the market. The vendors can ask another 10% more than the last vendor over-priced his place at, and it will still go to sealed bids above that asking price!

We'd need an absolute tightening of mortgage lending criteria and a big hike in interest rates. I am not sure how they can even do the former when so many commentators are already bleating that the banks are not lending enough and that is strangling the housing market as it is!

We'd also need to get control of banker's bonuses and inheritances. At the moment if houses prices came off, say, 20% how many people are there sitting on piles of cash from these sources waiting to invest because of the poor returns they are getting keeping it in the bank?

With these factors removed, I think we could get back closer to the old model (i.e. those who earn more buy better houses), but at the moment we are so far removed that it is hard to see how we get there.

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All you lot trying to live in the South East certainly are being scr*wed, I dont envy you.

Interesting to note now 3 members of my extended family have moved up to Newark on Trent over the past 3 years

from London. 2 of them can commute 1 or 2 days a week and otherwise work locally/home. The other one did

a daily commute for over a year :blink: now that was hardcore.

There is a curious mix of people in that town with a strange blend of local chavs and yummy mummys, that goes for the

shops in town, restuarants etc. London money is certianly flowing North....

Fact is if you are on good money, you can afford to buy this for cash do the pros outweight the cons?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38781719.html

it must be galling to see what you get in london by contrast......

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Its a different world down there.

Where I live (town in durham) my detached 4 bed (admittedly a wimpy-estate-house) can be had for about 150k. When they were built in 1998-2000 they were 90k, so HPI around here has been badish but not catastrophic.

I work in IT and if i wanted to go permie (im a contractor) i'd get about 45k.

All the programmers in my office are on 40k ish.

My point is that a man with a decent job up here can still afford to buy a decent house - I dont believe thats true down south any more.

I also have friends on minimum wage who with the help of tax credits have bought houses.

So a man with 3 kids up here on 12k can have a better standard of living than a man on 50k in the south east.

Surely this can't last?

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PS. i was talking about this a week ago with my brother, who lives in Wadhurst but works for a bank in the city as a project manager, and we reckoned the "Wadhurst Premium" is about 44k - he needs to earn 44k more higher tax bracket money pre tax than me to buy the same size house as me and pay for his commute.

Its mad...

Edited by ItsColdUpHere

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Can concur with the above - we lived in Blackpool for a while.

Newbuild estate on North Shore, mostly 4 bed detached Barratt boxes.

Partner's parents bought for 115k some years back. Most of the estate was inhabited by people who moved there to "get rid of their mortgages" and this one was no exception - house in Rickmansworth sold for 250k so netted 100k + from that move. Extra bedroom, detached, not semi, and ironically almost all the neighbours were Southerners.

One guy living nearby with his partner worked in Central London and commuted weekly. I can't understand how anyone could do that. Extreme example perhaps. Nor can I fathom anyone who does the weekly commute and lives in a flat/bedsit for five days a week on their own. What for? Living for the City?

Properties now in a fair amount of -ve equity, partner's father died, mother moved down here. At one point those houses were on the market for 240k and selling for 195k, this one sold quickly at 165k - 50k nominal profit over about 9 years. Rest of the estate appears to still be in fantasy land with prices over 200k. Blackpool was always going to be hit hard.

But I draw a parallel between Farnham (7 miles from us) and Blackpool in that both are about 50% nice areas, could be "anywhere" and about 50% shite areas. The destination in Farnham is the bit near Castle Street which is walkable to the train station. It's also ruined by traffic. 4 miles the other way from us - Alton, just inside Hampshire. Personally - I'd pick Alton over Farnham any day. Lovely little town.

But it doesn't have that Surrey postcode - Surrey does seem to attract some "snobbishness" but then to be fair, having lived down South, it *is* the nicest of the home counties by a mile - people in Hertfordshire would disagree, but they're wrong, frankly.

In the same manner if you need to commute... Welwyn Garden City (Herts) is much cheaper than Farnham (Surrey) is. Or, maybe Brentwood/Ingatestone (Essex). Oh, but the Essex postcode.... actually, 90% of Essex is lovely, it's just the urban bits we see on TV like Basildon and Harlow that let it down.

We'll be moving in a few months and one of the reasons I stay in IT is because it is portable and I can work from home (or even abroad). I earned the same money living up North as down South. Where I am is not important.

But even though the broadband here (rural) is shite, having thought this through, I simply cannot move back somewhere cabled/urban. Once you've lived in the countryside, there is no going back. Our place looks like a "home" and has space and privacy, the urban areas we've lived in just have houses.

While I'm not defending house prices, if you insist on living within walking distance of one of the top towns' stations (Godalming, Haselmere, even Farnham) there can only be so many houses that qualify which are always going to get bid up and surely with the way London is now, there must be a fair amount of flight from the inner zones to places further afield with people tolerating the commute to come home to somewhere nice.

So perhaps the key lies in breaking those ties with London.

Edited by DTMark

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We'd also need to get control of banker's bonuses and inheritances. At the moment if houses prices came off, say, 20% how many people are there sitting on piles of cash from these sources waiting to invest because of the poor returns they are getting keeping it in the bank?

They're likely to be smarter, and less inclined to use their capital.

They're certainly likely to be much smarter than all the others in recent times, and still today, who've not been satisfied with low returns on savings accounts, who've actively removed their 'piles of cash' to invest in alternative investments at high prices. eg: BTL at today's prices and other investment schemes, such as those multi-million pound wine schemes)

I've not suffered such low rates on capital to go buy at 10%-20% off. There may be quite a significant drop off from people who haven't been spooked to remove their savings from lower return savings accounts, who feel the same way. Much more likely when they've already been prepared to hold strong on it so far.

And with 10% then 20% falling prices of course comes the change in overall sentiment, with people expecting more, and those already exposed having to offload or screech about their losses, making those with capital more cautious.

I think even Merv or others at the BoE/FPC ect have hinted they recognise there is an issue with low rates fuelling malivestment. Financial Mail had a story the other day of another saver who says she's been forced to move her savings out of the banks and into other investments for higher yield. More capital out of the banking system.

UK banks face up to £50bn shortfall - FT.com (Nov 29 2012)

I think we can safely assume it's much more than that hazy guess.

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.....I wonder where all the Surrey set move to once they no longer require the stressful commuting London job, do they realise the gains from their property profits and head to new exciting places with a few pounds in their pockets to spend living out their peaceful retirement without worry........maybe new business should be looking to follow them.....follow the money? ;)

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38781719.html

it must be galling to see what you get in london by contrast......

It certainly is! 3,500 sqft for £400k! In my area you might scrape 1,000 sqft for that money if you were happy to live in a flat. If you want a house, you'd be down to one of the tiny 750sqft ones.

I make that £533 per sqft compared to about £110, and we are talking the outer suburbs here, not a prime part of west London!

By the way, was it always called Newark-on-Trent or is that a recent addition like Staines-upon-Thames?

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It certainly is! 3,500 sqft for £400k! In my area you might scrape 1,000 sqft for that money if you were happy to live in a flat. If you want a house, you'd be down to one of the tiny 750sqft ones.

I make that £533 per sqft compared to about £110, and we are talking the outer suburbs here, not a prime part of west London!

By the way, was it always called Newark-on-Trent or is that a recent addition like Staines-upon-Thames?

When I bought my first house in Consett in 1994 it worked out at £25 a square foot.

Basically free...

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Its a different world down there.

Where I live (town in durham) my detached 4 bed (admittedly a wimpy-estate-house) can be had for about 150k. When they were built in 1998-2000 they were 90k, so HPI around here has been badish but not catastrophic.

I work in IT and if i wanted to go permie (im a contractor) i'd get about 45k.

All the programmers in my office are on 40k ish.

My point is that a man with a decent job up here can still afford to buy a decent house - I dont believe thats true down south any more.

I also have friends on minimum wage who with the help of tax credits have bought houses.

So a man with 3 kids up here on 12k can have a better standard of living than a man on 50k in the south east.

Surely this can't last?

Those £40k programmers would probably earn £60k in London, but the London/SE housing market is not designed for people earning normal salaries like that, it is ruled by the (many) people that earn 5 or 6 times that and buy several houses or by those with large amounts of unearned cash.

I don't think we will ever get to a situation where someone one £12k can buy a house in the SE, but we certainly need to get back to one where someone earning £50k can. It looks a long way off at the moment.

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They're likely to be smarter, and less inclined to use their capital.

They're certainly likely to be much smarter than all the others in recent times, and still today, who've not been satisfied with low returns on savings accounts, who've actively removed their 'piles of cash' to invest in alternative investments at high prices. eg: BTL at today's prices and other investment schemes, such as those multi-million pound wine schemes)

Some are likely to be, but I think there are a lot of people with a lot of money who arent. A lot of the people who are getting passed down large wedges of 'pre-inheritance' from their parents are getting it on the proviso that it is invested in property because that is the asset class that has done so well for the parents themselves. Of course, the offspring don't have to follow this advice, but there is no reason to think that many of them have much financial nous of their own to think any differently. Why would they?

It is the same with the huge bonus earners. Some of them got to their positions through blind luck and even the ones who are financially bright can't wait to invest in property in my experience. Again, not all of them by any means, but enough to make a difference.

And with 10% then 20% falling prices of course comes the change in overall sentiment, with people expecting more, and those already exposed having to offload or screech about their losses, making those with capital more cautious.

Hopefully. This is certainly what has happened in past crashes, but when I look back at the minor crash of 2007, all I remember people saying was that it would come back and they wouldn't be taking any money out of property unless they had to. I don't believe it is different this time, but I do think it will take quite a long period of sustained falls before people will shake themselves out of the 'property always goes up' mentality.

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But I draw a parallel between Farnham (7 miles from us) and Blackpool in that both are about 50% nice areas, could be "anywhere" and about 50% shite areas. The destination in Farnham is the bit near Castle Street which is walkable to the train station. It's also ruined by traffic. 4 miles the other way from us - Alton, just inside Hampshire. Personally - I'd pick Alton over Farnham any day. Lovely little town.

Long commute times to London from either, but that much worse from Alton.

But it doesn't have that Surrey postcode - Surrey does seem to attract some "snobbishness" but then to be fair, having lived down South, it *is* the nicest of the home counties by a mile - people in Hertfordshire would disagree, but they're wrong, frankly.

In the same manner if you need to commute... Welwyn Garden City (Herts) is much cheaper than Farnham (Surrey) is. Or, maybe Brentwood/Ingatestone (Essex). Oh, but the Essex postcode.... actually, 90% of Essex is lovely, it's just the urban bits we see on TV like Basildon and Harlow that let it down.

I took my Grandma out to lunch in Essex (Ongar) before Christmas. Honestly I couldn't wait to get back to Surrey, no joke. One of the comments I overheard from the next table was 'You've done well for a bank robber's son Harry'. The table on the other side of me were making Carry On-style comments to the waitress. Even though there's a buttload of 4x4s around here, even the car park seemed that much more vulgar with ostentatious sports cars.

I've always thought up towards Milton Keynes had the best value for commuting.

E.g., there's a shorter commute from here

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38508815.html

to London than from say central Guildford, and the annexe alone is about the same size as you'd get for the money in Guildford....

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Hopefully. This is certainly what has happened in past crashes, but when I look back at the minor crash of 2007, all I remember people saying was that it would come back and they wouldn't be taking any money out of property unless they had to. I don't believe it is different this time, but I do think it will take quite a long period of sustained falls before people will shake themselves out of the 'property always goes up' mentality.

Yep, our neighbours up the road sold their business for £50 million and bought a new house for about £5 million. They put their house up for sale at the weakest time, I think 2007, but nobody bought at their rather lofty asking price, so rather than cutting the price they let it out, and it's still AFAIK being rented. They didn't believe that prices would stay even slightly depressed.

Just a few doors down, a similar house sold with asking price of £750k (I think there's was similar) in a week last month, so they were right.

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It certainly is! 3,500 sqft for £400k! In my area you might scrape 1,000 sqft for that money if you were happy to live in a flat. If you want a house, you'd be down to one of the tiny 750sqft ones.

I make that £533 per sqft compared to about £110, and we are talking the outer suburbs here, not a prime part of west London!

By the way, was it always called Newark-on-Trent or is that a recent addition like Staines-upon-Thames?

Commonly referred to as Newark

That particular house in Newark is 5 minutes walk to the train station and 1hr 20 into london KC. These sort of houses are being almost exclusively bought by londoners The sort of commutes this thread was mentioning earlier, make the idea of living in Hindhead look totally daft in comparison (local schools are a bit sh1t mind you)

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Long commute times to London from either, but that much worse from Alton.

I took my Grandma out to lunch in Essex (Ongar) before Christmas. Honestly I couldn't wait to get back to Surrey, no joke. One of the comments I overheard from the next table was 'You've done well for a bank robber's son Harry'. The table on the other side of me were making Carry On-style comments to the waitress. Even though there's a buttload of 4x4s around here, even the car park seemed that much more vulgar with ostentatious sports cars.

I've always thought up towards Milton Keynes had the best value for commuting.

E.g., there's a shorter commute from here

http://www.rightmove...y-38508815.html

to London than from say central Guildford, and the annexe alone is about the same size as you'd get for the money in Guildford....

LOL - where was this, Smith's? (the fish restaurant - brother used to live in Fyfield a mile up the road from there, and for interest, or not, Jade Goody lived in one of the newbuilds off the right turn just after that roundabout, behind the petrol station)

I know what you mean, you need to get to deeper Essex (e.g. futher away from London away from the home counties overspill), but even places just off the beaten track like Good Easter are lovely.

Round here, some people pronounce the word "off" as "awf" which grates a little. "Come again?" but you don't imagine that their parents were bank robbers.

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Yep, our neighbours up the road sold their business for £50 million and bought a new house for about £5 million. They put their house up for sale at the weakest time, I think 2007, but nobody bought at their rather lofty asking price, so rather than cutting the price they let it out, and it's still AFAIK being rented. They didn't believe that prices would stay even slightly depressed.

Just a few doors down, a similar house sold with asking price of £750k (I think there's was similar) in a week last month, so they were right.

The longer prices have been going up, the longer it will take to get into people's heads that they could actually go down significantly.

I was young at the time of the early-90s crash, but I do remember people saying how they'd had their fingers burnt on property, and it would be a long time before they bought back in. It stands to reason really, it was only 10 years or so since the last major crash so it was at the forefront of people's minds.

Now in 2013 it has been over 20 years since the last serious correction so a lot of people don't remember it all and those that do have the bad memories softened by the long period of massive growth afterwards. The slight dip in 2007 has done us no favours in this regard - instead of showing people that property prices can go down, it seems to have left the message that they are resilient even in the face of the credit crunch!

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The longer prices have been going up, the longer it will take to get into people's heads that they could actually go down significantly.

I was young at the time of the early-90s crash, but I do remember people saying how they'd had their fingers burnt on property, and it would be a long time before they bought back in. It stands to reason really, it was only 10 years or so since the last major crash so it was at the forefront of people's minds.

Now in 2013 it has been over 20 years since the last serious correction so a lot of people don't remember it all and those that do have the bad memories softened by the long period of massive growth afterwards. The slight dip in 2007 has done us no favours in this regard - instead of showing people that property prices can go down, it seems to have left the message that they are resilient even in the face of the credit crunch!

Sales volumes will be massively down outside prime areas though? The difficulty in selling property now is educating many sheeple about economic/credit realities? Can`t help feeling there will be quite a few buyers of 750k houses that are going to regret their decision in the coming years.

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Sales volumes will be massively down outside prime areas though? The difficulty in selling property now is educating many sheeple about economic/credit realities? Can`t help feeling there will be quite a few buyers of 750k houses that are going to regret their decision in the coming years.

HMRC seem to be calling in more debts these days if Celeb bankrupts anything to go by. I was always told they are the main power to be obeyed.. Inland Revenue.

Someone recently petitioned for bankruptcy with this address (below) in Esher Surrey. Oh but it's Surrey. It'll always stay up because of so many people having capital savings to replace all those who try and sell at just a few % below current asking prices. Let's see what happens when more home-owners want or need to sell, just those looking , and note property coming to market was up 22% nationally last year, and 29% in London and the South East, according to Righmove last month.

Ignoring the higher leveraged owners, I don't know how some of these owners in better financial positions can resist. Trading down from a mid-bracket house currently valued at £700Kish, to something smaller at £350K, to bolster their financial positions. More prepared to cut more to do so when buyers thin on the ground. Spooking more owners to come to market. There's going to be a market move I'm sure of it. I suspect I'm seeing signs of it in my own area (outside Surrey) with notably more mid-bracket homes coming to market.

Against property values being pumped up a couple of trillion pounds on high leverage in the boom. And Merv saying banks need £10s of billions more to absorb new losses.

http://www.rightmove...country=england

Last sold: 10 December 1999. £460,000

Zoopla's archive (which ties in with the unfurnished pics still in Righmove's archive - probably the Rightmove pics harvested when it was listed to rent in 2011):

http://www.zoopla.co...10-8jg/22373132

Previously listed for rent on 12th Oct 2011

£2,947 pcm - 6 bedroom property

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Sales volumes will be massively down outside prime areas though? The difficulty in selling property now is educating many sheeple about economic/credit realities? Can`t help feeling there will be quite a few buyers of 750k houses that are going to regret their decision in the coming years.

That is true, but the problem is that many more areas have been forced into the 'prime' category this time because the real prime areas are so far out of control. The feeling of most people around here is that while 'the north' may be hit, their own area will be totally safe because of the current demand. 'The north' of course is used to refer to any area more than 25 miles from London and current demand is always used as a valid indicator of future demand.

I don't bother even talking basic economic realities as it makes me quite unpopular. It seems to no-one really believes that they could not afford the monthly payments on their £400k mortgage if interest rates go up certainly no-one gets the connection that if a lot of people cannot afford their mortgages then house prices might even fall.

Huge sums of money are being talked about here by people who earn a fraction of it but no one thinks anything can possibly go wrong. I can't imagine too many £10k earners in 1983 seriously trying to buy £150k houses so why do we have all of these £30-£40k earners today talking about spending £500k? The reason is that they are convinced that the price will double again in the next 20 years and the bank or their parents back them up.

Obviously, if that £10k earner had bought a £150k house in 1983, they would have been laughing now, but they would never have been able to get the money in the first place.

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LOL - where was this, Smith's? (the fish restaurant - brother used to live in Fyfield a mile up the road from there, and for interest, or not, Jade Goody lived in one of the newbuilds off the right turn just after that roundabout, behind the petrol station)

I know what you mean, you need to get to deeper Essex (e.g. futher away from London away from the home counties overspill), but even places just off the beaten track like Good Easter are lovely.

Round here, some people pronounce the word "off" as "awf" which grates a little. "Come again?" but you don't imagine that their parents were bank robbers.

Yeah it was Smiths.

Lots of black cabs parked outside people's houses I noticed on the way back through Abridge - proper black cab man land.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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