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House Price Crash Forum

Figures Are Meaningless

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What meaning can be attached to the 'average' house price stats, whether Land Registry, Halifax, Nationwide etc? I've just looked at the 12 month changes in my region on the Land Registry web site:

Chiltern -14.2%

South Bucks +5%

Aylesbury -3.3%

Wycombe +11.5%

It appears that prices have crashed in the Chiltern area and jumped in the Wycombe area. Sample size - around 400 properties each.

Average change across region -1%.

The headline figure shows an annual change of +3.5%

Meaningless I suggest!

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That's what I was wondering too.

If you had an index of "Average Price of shirts" and in one year a particular fashion for, let's say, Ralph Lauren shirts, then the average price of shirts would probably go up.

The analogy for this that I can think of is that over the last couple of years there has been a "fashion" for overpriced shoebox flats sold for more than equivalent houses, so more transactions at higher values, meanwhile at the bottom of the market, where the "normal" buyer is priced out, there would presumably be less transactions than normal.

Fair enough it's a trite example, but as you say, what meaning can actually be attached to "average house prices"?

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