Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
I Told You So

Lets Be Honest

Recommended Posts

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

Totally agree.

In the last year studios in Swindon have gone from around £70K to £60k

1 Bed flats from around £90K to £75k

2 Bed houses from about £125k to £110k

Not been looking at any other properties.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

At times like these, it's best to trust the anecdotals and see what's happening around you.

And don't forget, the VIs are out to get you!

:ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree.

In the last year studios in Swindon have gone from around £70K to £60k

1 Bed flats from around £90K to £75k

2 Bed houses from about £125k to £110k

Not been looking at any other properties.

Swindon is down -4% for the quarter - according the the BBC site!

0.1 on the year I think it said...hmmmmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

Much the same with house prices in Australia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At times like these, it's best to trust the anecdotals and see what's happening around you.

And don't forget, the VIs are out to get you!

:ph34r:

The problem is all the figures are fiddled.

Good indicators are Sanford Street and Burnet Close.

They both have a large number of properties of the same design.

Sanford street contains a plaza with 1 and two bed flats that look more like hotel rooms and burnet contains a large number of 1 bed cluster houses.

Very few have moved this year compaired to 20 or 30 per year prior to 2005.

Some of these properties are now on the market from £10-20k less than last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect that figures are fiddled too. I suppose they could be accurate for the UK as a whole, but lets face it; when you are faced with so many different figures and statistics where do you look for the truth?

The estate agents window? (it certainly wouldn't come from their mouths! :lol: )

Where I live in Preston, Lancs prices are truly down on 12 months ago when we were very busy looking.

Average 3 bed semi seems to have dropped from the 185k mark to 155-165k mark.

Same areas, same quality etc. The local property section of the paper still claims prices on the up though :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

Not necessarily true for parts of Nth London unfortunately. Volumes are extremely low, asking prices are stupid but barely changing but house prices (in terms of selling prices) do not appear to be coming down much at all, more like 5% than 15%, although each one is different I suppose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem is all the figures are fiddled.

...

Yes, the figures are fiddled...there are people out there trying to make a living! You can't blame the VIs for manipulation of figures. They are trying to suck as many people into the market with the 'IT'S BOTTOMED OUT, BUY NOW!' trick. And it's working. My belief is that people will get suckered, buying in now with what they believe is a discount, which will simply be realised as tomorrow's market value.

As I said, look around you for the real story. Ask friends who are buying & selling; check nethouseprices and see what places are ACTUALLY selling for, versus asking price. It's far more comforting, I assure you... ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the north west has fallen over a bit.

house for £140k in april sold for £110k

one advertised at 140k again in summner.

not sold at £129k and falling.

wages. stagnant at around a realistic £18k per man.

how they expect people to buy these silly priced homes is quite funny.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Beckenham yesterday, I walked past a new build block of 'yuppie' looking flats (built around 2002). 4 'for sale' boards and two 'to let' boards. Opposite this block was another lego-set, built this year. "last few remaining" etc.

I'm guessing that a lot of these have been bought off-plan and they want to cash in quickly but haven't received the offers.

But, and I may sound like broken record, something needs to force these 'investors' to sell, otherwise they're just going to sit on the property and let it.

It's like the breaching of a dam but I don't see whats going to create forced sellers.

Still believe a horrible crash will come though. 50%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

West London is a big place. No doubt you're looking at undesirable fringe properties in somewhere grotty like Hayes, Acton or Brentford. Prices are stagnant and (incredibly) rising in better parts of West London.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Beckenham yesterday, I walked past a new build block of 'yuppie' looking flats (built around 2002). 4 'for sale' boards and two 'to let' boards. Opposite this block was another lego-set, built this year. "last few remaining" etc.

I'm guessing that a lot of these have been bought off-plan and they want to cash in quickly but haven't received the offers.

But, and I may sound like broken record, something needs to force these 'investors' to sell, otherwise they're just going to sit on the property and let it.

It's like the breaching of a dam but I don't see whats going to create forced sellers.

Still believe a horrible crash will come though. 50%

Unemployment is cyclical and there are indications that it's likely to rise. In Australia the various bank forecasts are pointing to weakness and in the UK there is the retail slowdown, loss of manufacturing jobs etc. In Australia only today another factory closure was announced with lots of jobs to go.

If unemployment rises then there's the trigger for forced sales. Remember that markets are made at the margin so it only needs to be 1 or 2% having to sell and down it crashes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

West London is a big place. No doubt you're looking at undesirable fringe properties in somewhere grotty like Hayes, Acton or Brentford. Prices are stagnant and (incredibly) rising in better parts of West London.

I think we all know that good property, priced reasonably will sell even in an unsure market like we are in now.

I have to agree with the initial comment. The VIs are not to be relied upon because they compare current data with the most convenient other data available to make their forecasts.

I'm seeing stagnation currently, but property I have monitored in the Surrey/Greater London region I have been monitoring has seen falls of circa 10p.c in the last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At times like these, it's best to trust the anecdotals and see what's happening around you.

And don't forget, the VIs are out to get you!

:ph34r:

And when you get ill don't worry about that scientific medicine stuff. Do like your Great Aunt says and chew an eye of newt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree.

In the last year studios in Swindon have gone from around £70K to £60k

1 Bed flats from around £90K to £75k

2 Bed houses from about £125k to £110k

Not been looking at any other properties.

I think Swindon is a great example to watch as it seems to be well ahead of most cities. Looking at the new LR figures some places (Wales in particular) look to be where Swindon was 1.5 years ago, that is rising fast. The reason I think Swindon is worth looking at is that it has high employment yet relatively cheap housing, so why is it dropping?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

Last June I had a buyer lined up for my 2 bed flat at £162K. A few days after the offer was made Merv made him big speech about 30% falls, the headlines were splashed all across the Daily Mail, The Express etc and my buyer immediately pulled out.

The property remained on the market for a couple more months with no takers, so I gave up. To be honest the place needed a spruce up (I'd let it out for a year while I back packed around Asia) and it was on a busy road.

Earlier this this I decided I really wanted to move areas, and was determined to get a completed sale, i spent about £3,500 modernising the place. I just wanted to maximise my chances of getting a sale.

Put it on the market in May at £165K - after a while I reduced it to a more realistic £160K. About 9 viewings later (some 6 weeks after I'd first put it on the market) I got an offer of £156K which I accepted. About 3 months later I completed on the sale, but only after the buyer had 3 attempts at getting a mortgage which ended up with the buyer's parents borrowing the money for him via a BTL mortgage - this then resulted in the mortgage company basing their valuation and loan amount on projected rental income. They then agreed to lend £10K less than the buyer was needing, leading to a reduction in their offer to £153K !!!

So, having spent money making the flat look immaculate, I ended up having to accept a lower offer than I'd received 1 year earlier when the place didn't look anywhere near as nice.

It's a tough market out there - but the only people who truly appreciate this are those that are trying to sell !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Beckenham yesterday, I walked past a new build block of 'yuppie' looking flats (built around 2002). 4 'for sale' boards and two 'to let' boards. Opposite this block was another lego-set, built this year. "last few remaining" etc.

I'm guessing that a lot of these have been bought off-plan and they want to cash in quickly but haven't received the offers.

But, and I may sound like broken record, something needs to force these 'investors' to sell, otherwise they're just going to sit on the property and let it.

It's like the breaching of a dam but I don't see whats going to create forced sellers.

Still believe a horrible crash will come though. 50%

If you think people bought off plan and have mortgages, then no rental income (you said To let signs?) or rental income below mortgage costs plus maintenance expenses plus no prospect of capital growth may well drive people to sell eventually if not exactly in panic...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Horsham, asking prices are similar or slightly less than last year.

Quality properties are selling. But, there is a huge number that are not with the supply increasing by the day. I am tracking properties that have been on and off the market since March 2004. I've seen many for-sale boards taken down but the property is still listed as for sale.

The Nationwide data shows prices are 9.5% less than last year in the area (non-adjusted) but the locals are only aware of the National figures therefore they still think that prices are rising.

Friends and colleagues are aware how hard it is to sell but the same three statements keep coming up: "Interest rates are going down", "I've read/saw that Prices will go up next year", "Renting is a waste of money".

I have no doubt that the spin is working ie. people have confidence. Given that the market is all about confidence the stalemate continues.

I don't see any significant change until peoples confidence is dented which would happen if the facts were accurately reported.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

hi, i am new to this forum though have been reading posts here for quite a while now. I can't believe what land registry figures are showing and looking around where i live doesn't match with it. 5.1% quarterly increase in birmingham, my a55!! nothing is selling here. Asking prices slashed by 7 to 10 % and still properties are there on market for 4-5 months. A few properties which were sold earlier have come back to market. Is it called a bounce back?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Swindon is a great example to watch as it seems to be well ahead of most cities. Looking at the new LR figures some places (Wales in particular) look to be where Swindon was 1.5 years ago, that is rising fast. The reason I think Swindon is worth looking at is that it has high employment yet relatively cheap housing, so why is it dropping?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Swindon is a great example to watch as it seems to be well ahead of most cities. Looking at the new LR figures some places (Wales in particular) look to be where Swindon was 1.5 years ago, that is rising fast. The reason I think Swindon is worth looking at is that it has high employment yet relatively cheap housing, so why is it dropping?

The reason this is because the wages are very low.

Most jobs pay around £12-15k a year for unskilled work, but there are a lot of unskilled jobs.

Place like

Intel

Zurich

Nationwide

Burmah Castrol

National Power

PHH

Motorola

Have teams of people just answering the phone and inputing data into computers.

The better paid jobs are at honda, but they are only around the £20k mark.

There are obviously better paid jobs, and I probably just about have one of those.

Most of the big earners commute.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where I live in West London I know for a fact that I could buy a flat for 10% to 15% less than summer 2004 by looking current asking prices and nethouseprices so why get stressed about all these manipulated figures.

In the not to distant future intersest rates will have to rise (strength of £, inflation US interest rates etc) then we will see a real acceleration in the crash.

Dont be fooled by all the VI's, lets face it only last month every so called expert said IR's would be 4% shortly :lol:

Hi,

Absoultley. I have been pleading my daughter not to buy this year and the penny dropped with her when we viewed a two bed flat at East Sheen, London, near to my area . The appartment she was looking at was on at £179K and was infact bigger than the flat she had looked at in the same block, 10 months earlier at £199K. I have seen this all before. Just go and look at the headlines of the previous crashes here. People didn't know prices were falling until maybe two years after the market top and the Estate agents and mortgage lenders were still touting soft landings etc., It's there in black and white, they (particulalrly the Nationwide and Halifax) forfieted their credibility in the previous crashes. Do not fall for it. It should become increasingly obvious over the coming year.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hi, i am new to this forum though have been reading posts here for quite a while now. I can't believe what land registry figures are showing and looking around where i live doesn't match with it. 5.1% quarterly increase in birmingham, my a55!! nothing is selling here. Asking prices slashed by 7 to 10 % and still properties are there on market for 4-5 months. A few properties which were sold earlier have come back to market. Is it called a bounce back?

What we are seeing is a distortion of the real picture. As you said, nothing's selling around your way despite reductions. The crucial fact is that volumes have fallen drastically and properties that ARE selling are higher end, quality homes. This pushes up the mean value of the LR's figures and voila, we have 'higher prices.'

Keep tracking those average and 'entry-level' homes, cos they're crucial for propping up the market...and they aren't shifting (lack of FTBs and BTLs). ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.