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crash 2005

Disturbing Trend Appearing In Land Registry Report!

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Looking at table 5 of the latest report clearly indicates that this bubble is only being supported by increased borrowing. (in all regions) The percentage of mortgaged properties by region, in all regions is rising! and rising steadily.

which is only serving to inflate prices,

It may also be due to Mortgage Equity Withdrawals too.

OH DEAR

Interest rates could hit hard next year.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/libr...ppr_q3_2005.pdf

Edited by crash 2005

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Looking at table 5 of the latest report clearly indicates that this bubble is only being supported by increased borrowing. (in all regions)

Which is only serving to inflate prices,

It may also be due to Mortgage Equity Withdrawals too.

OH DEAR

Interest rates could hit hard next year.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/libr...ppr_q3_2005.pdf

Possibly we are "going Irish": parents MEWing their previously mortgage-free houses to help their kids get on the ladder? This would help to explain the bottom end of the market holding up somewhat.

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Interesting, I wonder why the land registry has held back on this data,

Bottom of table 5

Note:

Figures for the third quarter of 2005 will be available in the next report.

Is it due to a dramatic increase, due to the heavy Remortaging seen last month, Which pushed up the number of mortgage approvals by any chance.

Debt consolidation etc...

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Looking at table 5 of the latest report clearly indicates that this bubble is only being supported by increased borrowing. (in all regions) The percentage of mortgaged properties by region, in all regions is rising! and rising steadily.

which is only serving to inflate prices,

It may also be due to Mortgage Equity Withdrawals too.

OH DEAR

Interest rates could hit hard next year.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/libr...ppr_q3_2005.pdf

Yes, this is a very peculiar trend.

Given that the UK clearly did not produce new FTBs in numbers sufficient

to fill 3% of all UK properties in short period of three quarters, it must mean

that the public MEWing much faster than it pays off mortgages.

This is a classical recipe for a financial pyramid scheme.

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Just had a look at this: % of mortgaged properties in England & Wales:

Jul-Sep 04 75.2

Oct-Dec 75.1

Jan-Mar 05 76.7

Apr-Jun 05 78.1

Maths might be a bit iffy but I make that a 3.7% increase. So why worry about a 3.5% YoY increase in prices if it goes with a 3.7% YoY increase in mortgaged properties? Talk about unsustainable.

And yes, why does it say "Figures for 3rd Quarter in next report"? Is there some delay in collecting these numbers?

Edited by munro

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Possibly we are "going Irish": parents MEWing their previously mortgage-free houses to help their kids get on the ladder? This would help to explain the bottom end of the market holding up somewhat.

I think this is a major part of the market. I'm the only bear in my family my brother is a Conveyancer in Oxford . His company has had their best year however he has also sold his house and his girlfriend her flat to move in together. Parents effectively bought both places (full asking price) for their children (also as an investment :D ). Anyway brother also said alot of his work was also parents buying for their offspring. Surely this will have an effect higher up the ladder because this money will need to be paid back unless very generous parents.

Incidently my dad offered a 15% deposit for me, I declined at the moment.

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Thanks to the those who have highlighted that the low volume selling of good quality housing stock is what has kept inflation above our hopes. We should find comfort in our credible collective analysis of what is actually happening. I believe we are on the right track.

With regards to the disclaimer on page 11, refering to additional data... The same thing appeared on the same page of the Q2 2005 report.

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Just had a look at this: % of mortgaged properties in England & Wales:

Jul-Sep 04 75.2

Oct-Dec 75.1

Jan-Mar 05 76.7

Apr-Jun 05 78.1

Maths might be a bit iffy but I make that a 3.7% increase. So why worry about a 3.5% YoY increase in prices if it goes with a 3.7% YoY increase in mortgaged properties? Talk about unsustainable.

...

Ponzi's mother would be proud. Who would have thought his idea might come to this? The pyramid of all pyramids.

The problem is that there is no way to gauge for the end of the boom if it creeps up like that. 3% rise in mortgaged properties over three quarters moves us to 78% at the moment. If the same pace continues for 3 more years we will have additional 12% in mortgaged properties and the total figure of 90%. It is unlikely that the bubble does not burst before that but still possible I would say.

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I think this is a major part of the market. I'm the only bear in my family my brother is a Conveyancer in Oxford . His company has had their best year however he has also sold his house and his girlfriend her flat to move in together. Parents effectively bought both places (full asking price) for their children (also as an investment :D ). Anyway brother also said alot of his work was also parents buying for their offspring. Surely this will have an effect higher up the ladder because this money will need to be paid back unless very generous parents.

Incidently my dad offered a 15% deposit for me, I declined at the moment.

Do you live at home? Do you think your parents were telling you something?

Parents giving, tax free, a lump sum to kids to enable them to buy is a great way of avoiding inheritance tax later in life.

How many higher rate tax payers are there now? Millions - all doing their best to legally avoid yet more tax.

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How many higher rate tax payers are there now? Millions - all doing their best to legally avoid yet more tax.

Hrm, IHT is charged at 40% regardless, even if the person was also in the upper band he can't give away untaxed income anyway :)

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Do you live at home? Do you think your parents were telling you something?

Parents giving, tax free, a lump sum to kids to enable them to buy is a great way of avoiding inheritance tax later in life.

How many higher rate tax payers are there now? Millions - all doing their best to legally avoid yet more tax.

No don't live at home. Wouldn't be a gift either would have to pay back.

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Here's the data for East Anglia back to year 2000, and it can be clearly seen that there is a definite upward trend, especially in the last 6 months of this data.

I have to wonder what the 3 months to date figure is, which they have held back, especially with the massive Mewing over the last few months to effectively consolidate debts,

When you put this data into excel and graph it, it looks bad!

Most regions show similar data trend, some better some even worse.

date range % of properties mortgaged in east anglia

july - sept 00 67.9

oct - dec 00 68.4

jan - mar 01 68.4

apr - jun 01 70.5

july - sept 01 68.2

oct - dec 01 70.8

jan - mar 02 70.1

apr - jun 02 72.1

july - sept 02 71.2

oct - dec 02 71.4

jan - mar 03 70.9

apr - jun 03 72.9

july - sept 03 71.3

oct - dec 03 69.7

jan - mar 04 69.3

apr - jun 04 71.0

july - sept 04 70.3

oct - dec 04 70.4

jan - mar 05 73.1

apr - jun 05 74.4

JUL - SEP 05 ......... 79% ??????? maybe

Edited by crash 2005

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Update to the above figures back to 1998

MY GOD IT GIVES A LONG TERM AVERAGE OF AROUND 70%, yet its risen 4% above trend in the last 6 months of data

Here's the data for East Anglia back to year 1998, and it can be clearly seen that there is a definite upward trend, especially in the last 6 months of this data.

I have to wonder what the 3 months to date figure is, which they have held back, especially with the massive Mewing over the last few months to effectively consolidate debts,

When you put this data into excel and graph it, it looks bad!

Most regions show similar data trend, some better some even worse.

date range % of properties mortgaged in east anglia

jan - mar 98 69.1

apr - jun 98 70.8

jul - sept 98 70.2

oct - dec 98 69.0

jan - mar 99

apr - jun 99

july - sept 99 69.3

oct - dec 99 67.8

jan - mar 00 67.5

apr - jun 00 68.4

july - sept 00 67.9

oct - dec 00 68.4

jan - mar 01 68.4

apr - jun 01 70.5

july - sept 01 68.2

oct - dec 01 70.8

jan - mar 02 70.1

apr - jun 02 72.1

july - sept 02 71.2

oct - dec 02 71.4

jan - mar 03 70.9

apr - jun 03 72.9

july - sept 03 71.3

oct - dec 03 69.7

jan - mar 04 69.3

apr - jun 04 71.0

july - sept 04 70.3

oct - dec 04 70.4

jan - mar 05 73.1

apr - jun 05 74.4

JUL - SEP 05 ......... 79% ??????? maybe

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No-mortgage STRs skewing the figures?

Ignorant Steve: Tax avoidance is to be applauded. That's why we have tax accountants. If the government wishes to raise more tax, they should just say so. But raising taxes is not a vote winner.

Edited by gone west

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anyone remember this headline:

Credit card debt has fallen for the first time in 10 years (people paid more back than spent), whilst mortgage lending had seen record figures for a single month (yet houses weren't selling?)

therefore has the land registry report revealed what actual went on?

have people effectively MEWed in order to consolidate debt on cards etc

is that why there has been a sharp increase in % of mortgaged properties?

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This may sound harsh, but I think its time for an economic re-adjustment of a relatively painful order. Sometime pain is neccessary, and no matter how much avoiding goes on it will get there. Better to get there before Mum and Dad MEW their life away for their kids over priced house than after.

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Sorry to be a bore (knackered and bit stupid) but could someone explain this in simple terms to me (and lurkers)?

Is this a new thing?

Thanks chaps

Yes, I am also confused. What is this a percentage of? Is it the percentage of houses bought during the period with the use of mortgages or is it the percentage of total housing stock on which a mortgage is held? The former I pressume?

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