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zorn

You Were Right

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Everyone here who was looking at the Halifax's fairly bullish figures of late was saying that they were obviously fiddled, and the Land Registry figures would show the real picture. And you were right. The Halifax's non-seasonally-adjusted increase from June to September was 2.4%. And the Land Registry's figure from Q2 to Q3 was 5.2%. So the Halifax figures are much lower than the real increases. Better allow for this bias when looking at future Halifax figures.

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True.. and ouch :)

Still, the argument is not about where current prices are at the moment.

Its about what they represent.

and if the current prices were sustainable then I would not be here. I have never been so arrogant as to presume to know the true timing for a reduction in prices, but I do know that prices will reduce.

We can all see that current prices are not sustainable.

That is a fairly blanket statement, but it is one that I believe is the case.

The economy is struggling with the debt and governmental overspends of the last few years.

Sentiment in the greater people is not one that prices will drop and it is still possible to borrow enough to buy.

But that is not the key point.

Low inflation has and will continue to strangle the housing market as people try to move up the ladder.

Rising interest rates are going to hopefully persuade FTB's that debt is real.. very real.. and they must be sure that they can afford the debt.

The economy cannot afford the debt. we are seeing that on the high street.

The economy needs the money to be spent where it has always been. not to suddenly shift.

Every little shop.. Every little taxable revenue, every restaurant and investment..

None of these still exist in a world that they are geared to expect.

We are still in a low Interest Rates and low inflation world, one that is building an unsustainable level of debt.

We can see the effect as higher IR's are called for globally.

You see the world needs investment, not in the form of debt on rapidly spiraling house prices that only drain the economy... but in the form of earned money, put into business, to make the business grow.. To make more money.

High House prices are here, but as they are a massive drain on the economy can they be sustained??

and with more people going bankrupt now then in any time in history.. can they people sustain the debt required for todays house prices??

IR's are going up, not this month.. but they will have to.

The country is entering a time of crisis, as is the world economy...

and house prices have always been swept along with the economy no matter which direction it heads..

House prices, they don't fall in recession, they cause recessions then they fall.

We will need more recessive tendancies it seems.

buying now is to embrace huge debt in a time of global economic downturn.

In a time when the only thing being resisted is inflation.

It is the MPC's primary goal to resist inflation.

So they cannot reduce the size of the debt out there.

Their only choice is to reduce the size of the debt required for others.

Part of that will be a rise in IR's to mean that less is borrowed.

and more is invested.

They have no other option.

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Guest The_Oldie

I never said that. I've always said that all the indices are reflecting a flight to quality, and who knows whether they would go up down or sideways. (But I also think they might all be fiddled, mainly by agents and solicitors holding back reporting key sales to smooth their figures and especially developers not reporting the lost value of the kick-backs they offer.)

Interesting thought that :rolleyes:.

I took a lowish offer when I sold my house early this year and it took over four months before the sale was listed on the land registry. I must say that I thought it was most convenient for those with a vested interest in maintaining the housing bubble that a sale at a lowish price was not available for the public to view until after the peak summer selling season.

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Everyone here who was looking at the Halifax's fairly bullish figures of late was saying that they were obviously fiddled, and the Land Registry figures would show the real picture. And you were right. The Halifax's non-seasonally-adjusted increase from June to September was 2.4%. And the Land Registry's figure from Q2 to Q3 was 5.2%. So the Halifax figures are much lower than the real increases. Better allow for this bias when looking at future Halifax figures.

What absolute hogwash. The LR figures are not mix-adjusted and hence do not take into account the mix of properties that are changing hands at any one time. It stands to reason that only the best property will sell during a market slump, and this is what the LR is reflecting.

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I thought the BBC article said that house prices went up 3.5% YoY for England and Wales; what's thise about a quarterly rise of 5%?

Is that on the LR site? No, it's not

LRPO 22/05 08/11/2005

BLAENAU GWENT AND MERTHYR TYDFIL TOP PROPERTY PRICE FIGURES AGAIN

Land Registry’s latest residential property price figures, published today, 8 November, show that house prices in Wales once again rose significantly compared to other regions.

The July to September figures show that houses prices in Wales rose by 7.42 per cent compared to the same period last year. Blaenau Gwent rose by 27.98 per cent and Merthyr Tydfil by 27.75 per cent. This is the third consecutive quarter that these two authorities have topped Land Registry’s property price figures. Wrekin in the West Midlands saw the greatest reduction with house prices falling by 6.29 per cent.

The average house price in England and Wales for the quarter is £194,589 an average rise of 3.52 per cent compared to the same period in 2004.

The following information can be found in the report:

England and Wales

· The average price increased by 3.52 per cent from £187,971 in 2004 to £194,589 for the same period in 2005.

· All economic regions in England and Wales show an increase in average prices.

· The volume of sales decreased by 15.41 per cent from 309,101 in 2004 to 261,481 for the same period in 2005.

· 1,140 properties over £1 million were sold compared to 1,230 for the same period in 2004.

· 78,559 properties were sold for less than £120,000 compared to 95,190 for the same period in 2004.

Greater London

· The average property price increased by 4.47 per cent from £287,470 in 2004 to £300,329 for the same period in 2005.

· The volume of sales decreased by 15.87 per cent from 39,692 in 2004 to 33,393 for the same period in 2005.

· 634 properties over £1 million were sold compared to 727 for the same period in 2004.

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Interesting thought that :rolleyes:.

I took a lowish offer when I sold my house early this year and it took over four months before the sale was listed on the land registry. I must say that I thought it was most convenient for those with a vested interest in maintaining the housing bubble that a sale at a lowish price was not available for the public to view until after the peak summer selling season.

Last LR recorded 4 bed detached sale in my West Yorks town was 263K Feb. We sold at asking for 249.950K completed 1st July. Still not recorded at LR, but other sales in the same town completed in September are being recorded at LR.....funny old world :ph34r:

Edited by Catch22

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Blaenau Gwent rose by 27.98 per cent and Merthyr Tydfil by 27.75 per cent

The dot.coms of the property market save the day for the Halifax, Nationwaide and LR figs. :lol:

78,559 properties were sold for less than £120,000 compared to 95,190 for the same period in 2004

The figures are even more stark for the sub-£60k, the speculators and desperate FTB's really are bidding up the bottom end or the bottom end isn't selling - see comment on LR thread.

Is there anywhere else for this type of activity to occur and skew the overall figs?

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Are these figures based on the highest offer received for ALL properties listed for sale regardless of whether or not a sale was completed? If not, they are not a valid representation of the market.

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Everyone here who was looking at the Halifax's fairly bullish figures of late was saying that they were obviously fiddled, and the Land Registry figures would show the real picture. And you were right. The Halifax's non-seasonally-adjusted increase from June to September was 2.4%. And the Land Registry's figure from Q2 to Q3 was 5.2%. So the Halifax figures are much lower than the real increases. Better allow for this bias when looking at future Halifax figures.

Lowest annual volume since 1975 though. What could that mean is coming?

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What absolute hogwash. The LR figures are not mix-adjusted and hence do not take into account the mix of properties that are changing hands at any one time. It stands to reason that only the best property will sell during a market slump, and this is what the LR is reflecting.

Any evidence for this from last time round?

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QUOTE - "and with more people going bankrupt now then in any time in history.. can they people sustain the debt required for todays house prices??"

This to me (at least) is the real pointer. The amount of repos (actioned) and personal bankruptcies hasnt started rising......it has gone ballistic!

It seemed that one day everything was fine and dandy on planet HPI and then - BANG.....it just went t!ts up overnight.

We are standing at "record levels" of bankruptcies, and as we all know, the HPC hasnt started yet. I hate to think what these figures are going to be standing at in 12 months.

For Charlie and some of you guys old enough to remember - think Boys From The Blackstuff.....them days are coming back - mark my words.

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and especially developers not reporting the lost value of the kick-backs they offer.)

How do these kick-backs etc. work? Do you, or the builders, have to pay the tax man tax on this generous gift?

Peter.

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My name is Yosser Hughes; give us a job! :angry:

I think you will find it is pronounced "gissa job" (in Merseyside, not in Hampstead or Islington of course.) :)

Edited by Scooter

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Everyone here who was looking at the Halifax's fairly bullish figures of late was saying that they were obviously fiddled, and the Land Registry figures would show the real picture. And you were right. The Halifax's non-seasonally-adjusted increase from June to September was 2.4%. And the Land Registry's figure from Q2 to Q3 was 5.2%. So the Halifax figures are much lower than the real increases. Better allow for this bias when looking at future Halifax figures.

Do you honestly believe that? Look around you. Do you really observe prices currently increasing at an annualised rate of 22.5% a year between 2004 and 2005?

For example, most houses that were advertised at, say, £250,000 in the middle of 2004 now achieving completed sales prices of around £306,000? If you are not observing this in the majority of cases, I would suggest that the LR figures bear no representation of what is happening or being observed in the market-place. (the reason for this I'm not entirely clear on, and wouldn't really want to speculate).

My experience (South East) is that houses that were sold at around £250,000 a year ago now complete at around £220,000 to £230,000.

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Everyone here who was looking at the Halifax's fairly bullish figures of late was saying that they were obviously fiddled, and the Land Registry figures would show the real picture. And you were right. The Halifax's non-seasonally-adjusted increase from June to September was 2.4%. And the Land Registry's figure from Q2 to Q3 was 5.2%. So the Halifax figures are much lower than the real increases. Better allow for this bias when looking at future Halifax figures.

excuse me zorn!...but the land reg data is about 3 months out of date when it's published.

...besides most of the figures are b0ll0cks anyway.....there are lots of them to try and give people what's known in the trade as "overload"

succinctly put....this means increasingly large numbers of conflicting reports with varying methodology the public don't understand,so as to distort the true picture.

...lies,damn lies and statistics....and lots of them in other words.

......you have to look elsewhere like the repo data for a true picture of what is happening.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

I think if old Zorn was hit on the head by an acorn & was then told by the government that the sky was falling in, if there was an "official" statistic to back it up - he'd believe it & regurgitate it ad infinitum.

He reminds me very much of Squealer, the pig who is the mouthpiece for Napoleon (i.e. Stalin) in Orwell's Animal Farm.

"Our Leader, Comrade Napoleon," announced Squealer, speaking very slowly and firmly, "has stated categorically-categorically, comrade-that Snowball was Jones's agent from the very beginning-yes, and from long before the Rebellion was ever thought of."

"Ah, that is different!" said Boxer. "If Comrade Napoleon says it, it must be right."

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I think you will find it is pronounced "gissa job" (in Merseyside, not in Hampstead or Islington of course.) :)

I wonder if you'd mind providing us with an employment opportunity. Thenks awfully.

frugalista

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

For Charlie and some of you guys old enough to remember - think Boys From The Blackstuff.....them days are coming back - mark my words.

The days of brilliant television. I remember people being greatly moved by Yossa and Mrs C would be in tears for him. Really showed the true social destruction in one hell of a recession, something I can never forgive Thatcher for. Made the 70s look like paradise

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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