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Has The Market Been Called....

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For all the housing market theorums, statistical analysis, and charting, have the HPC members cakked the market wrongly? Many proponents called June 2004 the peak. Was that correct and on what basis? Many more propents called August 2005 the month that all YoY figures went negative. Even more called 2005 the start of the big falls with BTL new builds being the epicentre. With real hard falls now being posposed to the end of next year and DrBubbs cruise speed of 1% falls being but by half...Why have some many intellectual economists called it wrong?

despite all this doubt I remain resolute - i will not buy at these prices.

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I'm gutted by the findings in the latest land registry report, but I'm feeling the same as you.

I couldn't afford to buy last year and what's changed, I still can't afford to buy but now it's 5% more then it was last year.

Fark it I say, keep pushing them up it won't go on forever I can handle any little lable soceity wants to stick on me.

I'm off to find out what mum is making for tea tonight. <_<

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For all the housing market theorums, statistical analysis, and charting, have the HPC members cakked the market wrongly? Many proponents called June 2004 the peak. Was that correct and on what basis? Many more propents called August 2005 the month that all YoY figures went negative. Even more called 2005 the start of the big falls with BTL new builds being the epicentre. With real hard falls now being posposed to the end of next year and DrBubbs cruise speed of 1% falls being but by half...Why have some many intellectual economists called it wrong?

despite all this doubt I remain resolute - i will not buy at these prices.

Agree, its pretty frustrating. I've changed my mantra a bit. I've been saving like mad for a few years now and have been gearing myself up to buying in the next year or two. I'm now coming round to the idea that I'll hold out renting as long as prices remain at (medium and long term) unsustainable levels. Bare in mind that all the time you are renting off a LL for sub 5% net (after repairs etc) and you have your savings earning 5% in ISAs etc, that you are making money at your LL's expense. He is subsidising your housing.

Don't overestimate the feeling of being "settled" in your own place. If you have to move cos of your job it will probably cost you £10k in stamp duty, solicitors and surveyers fees. Even if you only move once every 10 years thats a grand a year. Most of my mates seem to move every 3 years...thats £3k+ a year. Your settled feeling will quickly be replaced by a feeling of being trapped.

Just sit down and do the basic maths to restore your views. Calculate the living expenses of Mr average. Calculate his net wages. Work out what he can get together as deposit and what he can afford in mortgage repayments. You will probably find he cant live! Ask yourself where the money is coming from. Remind yourself that debt is currently rising at £7billion a month or £125 for every man woman and child....there you have your answer.

Many people believe that the longer things remain like this the less the chance of a crash. In reality the debt mountain is worsening. The UK spends £11 for every £10 it earns. I firmly believe that the BOE's policy of tickling things along without reacting properly to debt is storing up trouble for the future.

James.

Edited by jpidding

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There's no doubt in my mind that prices in London peaked in July 2004 and have come off by 5% since then. Not a massive drop, but remember it's the latter stages of a bear market that really hurt.

If my prediction is correct and it bottoms in 2010, that's when you'll be seeing the 20% drop; ie, when every last bull has thrown in the towel.

Also July 2004 was the peak in consumer spending.

Buubles over-shoot at the top,and under-shoot at the bottom.

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For all the housing market theorums, statistical analysis, and charting, have the HPC members cakked the market wrongly? Many proponents called June 2004 the peak. Was that correct and on what basis? Many more propents called August 2005 the month that all YoY figures went negative. Even more called 2005 the start of the big falls with BTL new builds being the epicentre. With real hard falls now being posposed to the end of next year and DrBubbs cruise speed of 1% falls being but by half...Why have some many intellectual economists called it wrong?

despite all this doubt I remain resolute - i will not buy at these prices.

My 2p.

1/ In reality, we all know interest rates should be higher, the £ continues to fall internationally, and the only way to stop that is to raise rates. If we had a political neutral mechanism of setting rates they would be higher.

2/ The level of debt is slowly strangling the economy, we havnt had the forced sales which have characterised the last house market cycles, YET. If interest rates were at a realistic level this would be happening now.

3/ The false hope of market renewal due to SIPP is not yet shown to be what it is - false.

4/ A link on HPC showed a studio selling in Sutton for £52k. Thats probably a forced sale and gives an indication of what should be happening in the market. Lower market transactions indicate to me that if left to its own devices the market should be correcting now.

If prices hold for now, they cant forever. This doesnt show that the crash scenario is wrong, just that the interference of the govt will stop at nothing to try to stop it, unsuccessfully.. ...eventually, and with adverse effects for the wider economy. My own opinion, when the crash starts I expect it to be faster than previous cycles, its going to be a rough ride.

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I do not believe the market has been called wrong.

Prices are far above equilibrium and they will gradually be restored.

However, I expect the time required for price decline to equilibrium will be LONG.

The reason? The driving force are interest rates and real rates are low and will stay low. Thus, the decline will be slow, erratic,and will sometimes give the impression that prices are rising. Even the 1989-1995 crash, driven by high interest rates was not clear at the time and there were many false calls that the market has turned.

After a long period of time, I expect real losses for property investors (after inflation) to be substantial and then it will feel like a crash.

I expect rising inflation, wages and interest rates, static or slightly falling nominal prices, for years to come.

In the meanwhile, property is not best choice for investment. Inflation protected securities should be best choice.

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For all the housing market theorums, statistical analysis, and charting, have the HPC members cakked the market wrongly? Many proponents called June 2004 the peak. Was that correct and on what basis? Many more propents called August 2005 the month that all YoY figures went negative. Even more called 2005 the start of the big falls with BTL new builds being the epicentre. With real hard falls now being posposed to the end of next year and DrBubbs cruise speed of 1% falls being but by half...Why have some many intellectual economists called it wrong?

despite all this doubt I remain resolute - i will not buy at these prices.

Hiya shaker,

Firstly - I need the link to that piccy for my desktop pic of the month!.....good to see you back on form with those piccys! (bl00dy trumpton - what were you thinking!)

I'd bear in mind that this particluar bubble has taken at least 7 years to work itself up and will no doubt take as long to work itself down. Property is such a slow dinosaur, unlike dotcoms et al that worked themselves to a frenzy in the blinking of an eye - and went *pop* just as quick.

We have some other points to consider with this bubble - the governement didnt step in and prop up dot-coms.....this governemnt has made it its goal to support HPI at all and any costs.....but its not working.

Repossesions and bankruptcies are rising at an alarming lick. This begs the question - if house prices are still rising why didnt they sell the property to clear the debt?....because the house is not worth anything near what they paid (or borrowed) against it - hence they get repo'd or bankrupted.

That is the surest and simplest sign to me that this bubble has ran its course.

....slowly slowly catchy monkey.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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