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Jason

Land Reg: +3.52% Yoy, +5.2% Qoq

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Mmm...the figures are pretty strong.

On the detail, terraced houses in Devon have gone up £172 in the three months. I have gained £1,650 in interest on savings in the same period so the figures are OK for me.

The noticeable feature for me is that new build flats are falling pretty hard. Bell-weather movement?

Edited by Starcrossed

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Mmm...the figures are pretty strong.

On the detail, terraced houses in Devon have gone up £172 in the three months. I have gained £1,650 in interest on savings in the same period so the figures are OK for me.

The noticeable feature for me is that new build flats are falling pretty hard. Bell-weather movement?

Hi,

Going to have a mill over it myself sometime this week. Yep, bell-weathers I will be looking for is ;

London-vs-South East-vs-North and Wales-vs-regional trends, new builds, 1m+ homes, one bedroom and studio flats, UK's poorest and wealthiest neighbourhoods.

Boomer

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The average property in Poole, Dorset has gone up by £17974 over the year!!

Better grab my coat and leave the area or ask my boss for a 100% payrise :)

PS - Everything looks fine to me, maybe the BOE should now raise interest rates to curtail this boom once and for all before they have to get too radical later on!!!

Edited by Shamus

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I thought I would start a new thread with the results.

Link: http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/libr...ppr_q3_2005.pdf

I'll be looking at the figures later!

Mmm, and it's not just the lack of mix-adjustment. All regions are up YoY. All property types are up YoY except for new flats. Transaction volumes are down on last year, but that was at the tail-end of the boom -- they're at a pretty normal level.

All in all, I'd say it was very bad news for the bears. There's no sign at all of a crash in these figures, or even of any significant price reductions anywhere in the country. And if you STRed in London a year ago, you're now looking at having to spend an extra 4.5% to get back into the market.

As an aside, you can see the effects of the stamp duty changes very clearly. There's an 8% increase in transactions of between £100,000 and £120,000, and a 19% decrease in the £120,000 to £150,000 band.

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Oh, and don't forget that these figures essentially predate the interest rate cut on 4 August -- very few of the transactions that completed in Q3 will have been agreed after the interest rate cut. So you won't really see its effect in the Land Registry figures until next quarter.

Mmm, and it's not just the lack of mix-adjustment. All regions are up YoY. All property types are up YoY except for new flats. Transaction volumes are down on last year, but that was at the tail-end of the boom -- they're at a pretty normal level.

Before someone picks me up on it, by "all regions" I meant the ten standard regions. There are a dozen or so individual local authorities that have fallen a bit, mostly in the South West or around London.

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So.. it isn't here yet...

We can see that...

But don't forget that the economy is not geared as it used to be..

The growth from public debt based spending has turned into a fall in public spending due to high debt levels.

We can see that interest rates are heading up. Based on global and domestic economy performance.

We can see the current debt burden begining to hit people too hard.

and we can be sure that if current prices are maintained that personal debt levels would have to climb to horrific levels.

Also, I will be honest.

I earn £22,500 a year..

A profesional man of 32 in Devon.

I cannot afford at todays prices.

Even if I can manage the debt, which I could.

I would have to borrow 5.77 times my salary to buy a new build two bed flat.

So I can't

Thats just the way it is.

So, life is hard..

But I have fun.

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Guest Alright Jack

So are we going to finally lay this to rest then ?

NO HOUSE PRICE CRASH. NOT NOW, NOT EVER.

[ Is that also the opinion of I Don`t Believe You ]

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So are we going to finally lay this to rest then ?

NO HOUSE PRICE CRASH. NOT NOW, NOT EVER.

[ Is that also the opinion of I Don`t Believe You ]

Hi,

Phew, thanks for that Jack! All is ok now. I should just not question things ever. Never, ever. I don't know where I would be without your help.

Cheers,

Boomer

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Guest The_Oldie

So are we going to finally lay this to rest then ?

NO HOUSE PRICE CRASH. NOT NOW, NOT EVER.

Why not log is as "I don't believe you" now and say the same again :rolleyes:.

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Ceredigion flats have plummeted. Thats bound to have an affect on all properties in that area in the future.

That's based on exactly seven flats. It's far too small a sample to be significant.

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I am surprised with the figures, I must admit.

I don't believe that prices will stay this high but they have defied gravity longer than I expected.

I believe the sentiment factor can be judged by what people hope for.

6 months ago every post by TTRTR was peppered with references to IR drops and to me this showed a certain desperation.

Nowadays, I come back again and again to the likelihood of IR rises and stop myself with the realisation I am doing the same - playing the round with one club.

Prices will come down but I am less confident of when.

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I see the straw clutchers are already at it in the few replies so far.

Just face facts, there is no house price crash.

The economic conditions are just not there to trigger a crash. Any crash is at least 12 months off.

God knows why you just can't accept this fact. I was a bear until February this year, when I realised I had fallen for all the cobblers that is spewed out on here.

If you truly go and have a look at the facts, you will see it for yourselves. The most likely scenario until IRs raise significantly or unemployment rockets is stagnation. Any change to this is at least 12 months off before it would feed through and affect house prices.

And I don't own a property, having found my self renting by circumstances, I now find after 18 months I have probably 'lost' £35k + stamp duty and all the other stuff if I was to buy back in.

So I am kicking myself, but all I'm trying to do is save a few other mugs from buying into the propoganda of the HPC mentalist bears. Even Dr Bubb, the discreditted one, is softening his position, realising there ain't no crash on the horizon !!

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So are we going to finally lay this to rest then ?

NO HOUSE PRICE CRASH. NOT NOW, NOT EVER.

[ Is that also the opinion of I Don`t Believe You ]

Sorry Sire, the peasants are STILL revolting.

PS: Jack, did you like the DISCRETE use of capitalisation in the previous sentence?

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Ok, everyone. I have added some of the data to my excel spreadsheet (well, data that applies to me).

It's at the start of this thread!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

The economic conditions are just not there to trigger a crash. Any crash is at least 12 months off.

I`d say that would be about right. As the economy tanks next year and people realise things are getting bad the downhill ride gathers speed.

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Guest Alright Jack

Hello 'I don't believe you'. :)

Does 'not ever' include the past?

You don't have to believe me, I am just saying that I am surprised at your resiliance inspite of month after month of evidence to the contrary.

Have you looked at the actual development cost of building houses these days ? I suspect not (go and do this, you will be amazed how expensive it really is!). I know that development cost and market value are not necessarily one and the same thing, but in the long run they must bear some material relationship.

'Not ever' doesn't include the past obviously because we have seen a downturn before (google 1989 recession or house price crash) The situation today doesn't look anything like 1989 as all the experts have been saying for a while now.

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I`d say that would be about right. As the economy tanks next year and people realise things are getting bad the downhill ride gathers speed.

Hi,

Yes, there is a long way to go. I know it gets repeated everytime but here we go again ;

The boom took 7-10 years to rise. We have seen the past year go from 20% to 3% HPI as transactions fell heavily and the economy has weakened, repocessions and bankrupctcies up. That would suggest a peak or plateau of the market. We are at the top of the hill, my gut feeling is looking downward on the negative side of the slope now. The downside is looking around 3-4 years at least. None of the other UK HPC's went from start to end in a year. Patience, patience. I can of course be pursuaded otherwise, maybe if a big economic boom occurs now, if the fiscal and trade defecits slow markedly, if more of the independent analysis and academics come out on the side of rising prices. Definitely not the right time now mind to be listening to EA's or mortgage lenders at this juncture. You can't sell a house instantly, housing markets are not like shares or currency or gold.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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...but we aint looking at a 1990's style crash!!!!

we are looking at a 1980's style crash!....complete with brixton riots and miners strike!!!(or the modern day equivalent of)

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well..

We could...

but the crash is only the title of the site..

What we are measuring are the economic forces in place..

Why, because we want homes.. that much is true...

Not a weird perspective.

See what happens when Interest rates go up..

(note.. if they don't and in a few months when Americas match our current rates you should see the pound fail and IR's do a 1990...

It needs a trigger, domestic economic collapse is a slow horrid process.. its happening..

but luckily the MPC has seen the need to raise rates to save the economy and now the Americans will force their hands..

so your £170,000 basic two bed flat for the FTB's

£859.54 at 3.5% repayment £495.83 interest only

£1108.21 at 6% repayment £850.00 interest only..

That should put of some FTB's.. and that is 6%

the Americans promise at least 5%, chances are 5.5% minimum..

So how close do you think we will let them get..

and quite where in gods name do you think that people can find that sort of cash...

the average wage is a take home of about £1500 a month..

and that is not the average property..

Who are you going to sell your three bed at £250,000 to..?

no ones wages are going up with inflation..

someone who had your nice 3 bed flat has not had their £180,000 two bed mortgage deflated with inflation enough to move up..

£250,000 for a three bed??

the average house? three bed.. in devon

£1629.72 repayment.. marvelous..

£1250 interest only..

High house prices were created because Interst rates were very low and enough people made vast amounts in such a short time that it buoyed up the market.. high prices stop people from upsizing.. that takes a while to hit

Those forces are gone..

Those that have not spent their equity are unlikely to start now.

Interest Rates are heading up.

First Time buyers are struggling hugely with debt.

The economy and high street specifically are struggling with reduced spending.

Bills are up, fuel etc.. taxes are up..

The ladder does not work without inflation reducing the first mortgage enough to ease moving to a bigger mortgage.

Essentially, as always, high house prices can work.. But it is only short term..

Then the whole mechanics of the housing market fail.

The debt hits the economy..

and the good economic times that cause the boom change.. Good times never last for ever.

We are here because this has happened before.. time and time again..

And the MPC has sworn not to allow inflation to grow..

House prices are a mtter of opinion, but debt is real.

Debt is real?

Look at the high street and the people going bankrupt.

Deb tis very real..

Those here, we listened to the head of the Bank of England, the head of the MPC, Mervin King..

We listened top history..

We have seen the press releases of the last crash..

and

we are confident.

Most of all we are right..

and its bleeding obvious that we are.

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Well these figures obviously do not bode well for us indivuduals who would like to purchase a house at a reasonable price. However, I still believe that a HP correction is on the way, it is just being drawn out by the VI's, government and the general sentiment of this country.

How much longer can this market be maintained by mounting personal debt levels, and with affordability already under question I do not honestly see how prices can continue to increase, houses will only sell so long as their is someone to buy them <_<

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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