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Sell The House And Rent Till The Prices Drop?

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Has anyone out there sold their house with the expectation that the prices are likely to drop over the next few years? If prices do drop by 20% as expected, then this could reap some huge returns.

I would welcome your thoughts on this subject.

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Has anyone out there sold their house with the expectation that the prices are likely to drop over the next few years? If prices do drop by 20% as expected, then this could reap some huge returns.

I would welcome your thoughts on this subject.

You maybe onto something there!

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Has anyone out there sold their house with the expectation that the prices are likely to drop over the next few years? If prices do drop by 20% as expected, then this could reap some huge returns.

I would welcome your thoughts on this subject.

Presuming you're not just trolling...

There are many STRs on this site (Sold To Rent) and I for one am anticipating more than 20% drops!

;)

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Has anyone out there sold their house with the expectation that the prices are likely to drop over the next few years? If prices do drop by 20% as expected, then this could reap some huge returns.

I would welcome your thoughts on this subject.

Might be a bit late for this, to actually sell most homes in this market often requires large discounts on both asking and last years peak prices.

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It is good to hear that there are already people following this strategy. How long do you anticipate you should stay 'sold' for?

I wouldn't wait too long.

If you are trying to sell at the moment, ask the Estate agent what is a realistic price to sell

they would have a better idea, then any of the media trying to influence the market.

the EA may even kiss you for it.

Edited by burnt before

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It is good to hear that there are already people following this strategy. How long do you anticipate you should stay 'sold' for?

There are many threads on this topic - I suggest you do a few searches.

Calling the bottom of the market is tricky...do you get back in when it's affordable for you, or wait till prices hit 3 times salary? Your call.

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Someone has suggested to me that rather than going through the costs and hassle of selling to rent, I should 'insure' myself against a house price crash by selling a spread bet. Apparently these things are based on the average house price, so that when the average house price falls I can make back the money that I am loosing by owning my house.

Edited by Market Observer

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No point, just look back at what falls the indices showed last time around - when property halved in value in many places.

An SB based on a contrived index - won't work.

Edited by OnlyMe

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With estate agent fees, solicitor fees, stamp duty, removal fees and the rest, it could cost a tidy sum to sell my house and buy another in a couple of years time.

True, depends on whether you were looking to move over the time frame and how much overvaluation you perceive there to be though.

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True, depends on whether you were looking to move over the time frame and how much overvaluation you perceive there to be though.

If there is a crash then it would suggest that significant gains could be made over a fairly short time frame.

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STRs are guilty of the same greed that drives BTLs. You've got a house, so live in it you greedy *******!

Is it really worth risking your home & sanity selling up just in case the market crashes? What if it doesn't and prices continue growing at 2%? Not only will you have to make up the difference in price, you'll have all the additional expense of buying again.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Has anyone out there sold their house with the expectation that the prices are likely to drop over the next few years? If prices do drop by 20% as expected, then this could reap some huge returns.

I would welcome your thoughts on this subject.

Yes, advise your goodself. <_<

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STRs are guilty of the same greed that drives BTLs. You've got a house, so live in it you greedy *******!

Is it really worth risking your home & sanity selling up just in case the market crashes? What if it doesn't and prices continue growing at 2%? Not only will you have to make up the difference in price, you'll have all the additional expense of buying again.

If you do not plan to act according to whether you think house prices are going to crash. Then what is the point of even considering the subject? In fact why are you on this site. Or is it just to hurl abuse?

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STRs are guilty of the same greed that drives BTLs. You've got a house, so live in it you greedy *******!

Is it really worth risking your home & sanity selling up just in case the market crashes? What if it doesn't and prices continue growing at 2%? Not only will you have to make up the difference in price, you'll have all the additional expense of buying again.

I quite agree. If you can afford to live in your house then stop thinking of it as an investment and try making money in an honest way! If only people had this attitude in the last 10 years then we wouldn't be in this over-inflated market in the first place.

I don't want to make money at other people's expense (even if their greed does make me think they deserve it). I just want to be able to buy a sensible house at a sensible price. It's not an investment, it's a place to live.

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To Market Observer:

ONLY if there is a crash, which is a relatively rare thing. If, rather, HPs experience a slow leak over a few years, then you'd have to wait longer to get a bargain, IMO. Remember, everyone is thinking the same way:

Sell now (@ a high price) > immediate crash (wouldn't that be nice?) > Buy low

And feeling smug afterwards. But *everyone* wants to do this; who doesn't?

A crash scenario is not quite that simplistic. From what I've seen, bubbles - be they in the stock market or housing - burst in downward jags:

- Somewhat large drop (10% or less).

- People who had been waiting on the sidelines rush in to buy, which pushes prices up again for a while.

- If the economy is recovering at this point, then there is no further crash or it is delayed significantly.

- OTOH, if the economy is softening, interest rates are going higher (such as may be starting to happen now), things stay uncertain for a while until a clearer trend emerges.

- It's only when people start to experience real job losses that a true crash happens (if things have been teetering on the brink). For example, when the high-tech bubble burst circa 2000, all those dot-com companies went bust, resulting in 10,000s of job losses. That, more than anything, got the crash on its way.

Similar with the brutal recession + jobless recovery of the early '90s. People losing their jobs and not getting another one for months or years, meant the housing market HAD to crash. People walked away from mortgages worth more than their devalued homes, because they had no choice.

This time around, UNLESS there are significant job losses and/or an actual recession, it may take a while for an HPC to kick in. Too early to tell yet.

My 2p.

Lake

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To Market Observer:

ONLY if there is a crash, which is a relatively rare thing. If, rather, HPs experience a slow leak over a few years, then you'd have to wait longer to get a bargain, IMO. Remember, everyone is thinking the same way:

Sell now (@ a high price) > immediate crash (wouldn't that be nice?) > Buy low

And feeling smug afterwards. But *everyone* wants to do this; who doesn't?

A crash scenario is not quite that simplistic. From what I've seen, bubbles - be they in the stock market or housing - burst in downward jags:

- Somewhat large drop (10% or less).

- People who had been waiting on the sidelines rush in to buy, which pushes prices up again for a while.

- If the economy is recovering at this point, then there is no further crash or it is delayed significantly.

- OTOH, if the economy is softening, interest rates are going higher (such as may be starting to happen now), things stay uncertain for a while until a clearer trend emerges.

- It's only when people start to experience real job losses that a true crash happens (if things have been teetering on the brink). For example, when the high-tech bubble burst circa 2000, all those dot-com companies went bust, resulting in 10,000s of job losses. That, more than anything, got the crash on its way.

Similar with the brutal recession + jobless recovery of the early '90s. People losing their jobs and not getting another one for months or years, meant the housing market HAD to crash. People walked away from mortgages worth more than their devalued homes, because they had no choice.

This time around, UNLESS there are significant job losses and/or an actual recession, it may take a while for an HPC to kick in. Too early to tell yet.

My 2p.

Lake

Lake,

Thank you for your enlightened analysis. You may well correct that it is too early to tell whether house prices will crash. In that case I would imagine that it would be better to hedge the value of the average house through the market at spreadfair than to become a STR.

Not only would I avoid the cost of selling and buying, but also the prices offered on the spreadfair market are current above the current house price. So I could make money even if house prices just stay constant.

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If you do not plan to act according to whether you think house prices are going to crash. Then what is the point of even considering the subject? In fact why are you on this site. Or is it just to hurl abuse?

I wasn't hurling asbuse at you specifically. If the said abuse hadn't been commented out, you'd have seen that it was plural.

As for acting according to what I think the market is doing, I am. I'm sitting tight hoping for a crash, so I can get on the ladder. At the moment I don't see it going that way.

Greed is worthy of abuse.

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I wasn't hurling asbuse at you specifically. If the said abuse hadn't been commented out, you'd have seen that it was plural.

As for acting according to what I think the market is doing, I am. I'm sitting tight hoping for a crash, so I can get on the ladder. At the moment I don't see it going that way.

Greed is worthy of abuse.

How long are you going to wait?

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How long are you going to wait?

Until I can afford to buy perhaps?

Does it ever occur to many people on this forum, that a vast number of people would love to buy a home, and some would even buy at inflated prices, but they just CANNOT AFFORD to. It's not a case of timing a potential crash, certainly not in my case. I have no choice but to sit and wait.

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Lake,

Thank you for your enlightened analysis. You may well correct that it is too early to tell whether house prices will crash. In that case I would imagine that it would be better to hedge the value of the average house through the market at spreadfair than to become a STR.

Not only would I avoid the cost of selling and buying, but also the prices offered on the spreadfair market are current above the current house price. So I could make money even if house prices just stay constant.

You omit one important factor in all of this - do you WANT TO MOVE?

You seem to be talking about the whole scenario in a purely speculative, financial manner.

I would NEVER advise anyone to STR for purely speculative reasons.

I STR'd because I WANTED to move and am enjoying the flexibility of renting in an area I may buy in one day.

I will probably move to another area next year to suss that out, too...

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I understand what you are saying about only becoming an STR if I am planning to move anyway. The fact is that I am not. So in order to avoid the cost of selling, but still have a hedge against the potentially falling housing market, it looks to me that the spreadfair housing market is a pretty good bet.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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