The Threat To The Euro Is Over

[ingermany]

EURO no longer under threat?

I suspect he's right. Sooner or later Germany has to acknowledge that its fate is tied to that of its neighbours. It's not a question of whether to bail out southern Europe. It is a question of "how much would they like?". Once that hurdle is overcome the EURO is safe. I expect the Germans are beginning to realise this is the case and will just have to suck it up. ECB will also print (like Fed and BoE), creating inflation in Germany. They will squeal about it. However I don't think there's an appetite for allowing the EURO to self-destruct. If they were going to pull the plug they would surely have already done so before throwing away hundreds of billions in bail outs.

[vin rouge]

You're smoking crack rocks. There's scarcely any difference between the long-run economic performance of the EU and the USA, real gdp per capita has essentially doubled since 1970. The EU is the biggest and richest single-market in the world.

And the Yanks don't like it because it threatens their own financial dominance as "too big to fail".

[Oliver Sutton]

And the Yanks don't like it because it threatens their own financial dominance as "too big to fail".

We all know what happened to Iraq once they switched to trading oil in Euros.

[frederick]

And the Yanks don't like it because it threatens their own financial dominance as "too big to fail".

It was a nice graph, why does it end in 2006?

Its the denial that tells you the situation, The Spanish finance minister said they would need no bailout 2 weeks before they anounced they needed a bailout, when they tell you there are no problems you have to start really being scarred.

Edited January 9, 2013 by frederick

[R K]

Most amusing thing is that Barosso probably believes it.

The last person Germany are going to tell before they dump it is Barosso.

He's Buffett's infamous 'patsy'.

[dances with sheeple]

Most amusing thing is that Barosso probably believes it.

The last person Germany are going to tell before they dump it is Barosso.

He's Buffett's infamous 'patsy'.

Yes, that sounds about right I think. Scary days ahead?

[snowflux]

Most amusing thing is that Barosso probably believes it.

The last person Germany are going to tell before they dump it is Barosso.

He's Buffett's infamous 'patsy'.

Paddy Power, Germany first country to leave the euro, 22/1. Fill yer boots!

[Quicken]

It seems that the Telegraph has stopped doing daily updates to it's debt crisis live pages this year, so perhaps they're drinking the Euro kool-ade now?

Q

[copydude]

Paddy Power, Germany first country to leave the euro, 22/1. Fill yer boots!

It won't be before the elections . . . Merkel has too much political capital tied up in Europe.

But it will be crunch time after that. The choices for Germany (and others) are permanent handouts to to the South and probably writing off a lot of Greek debt. (Some commentators believe 50%). Or simply to stop throwing good money after bad.

Ireland and Portugal are already kicking up about one country getting all the debt forgiveness.

I think the German elections will be interesting, because the Eurozone will be a big campaign issue.

[dances with sheeple]

It won't be before the elections . . . Merkel has too much political capital tied up in Europe.

But it will be crunch time after that. The choices for Germany (and others) are permanent handouts to to the South and probably writing off a lot of Greek debt. (Some commentators believe 50%). Or simply to stop throwing good money after bad.

Ireland and Portugal are already kicking up about one country getting all the debt forgiveness.

I think the German elections will be interesting, because the Eurozone will be a big campaign issue.

Hard to put that genie back in the bottle?

[Game_Over]

All the countries constituting the EU have been at peace with one another since founding/joining the EC/EU. These are countries that had previously been almost constantly at war with one another. The EU is, on the whole, a force for good, and I can only hope that it is able to resist the attempts of nationalists such as you to destroy it and take us back to the bad old days again. For the sake of your children as well as mine.

I think you will find that Germany was physically divided and occupied until 1990

Which kept the peace in Europe for 45 years.

It is only now just over 20 years since Germany was reunited

and we are once again on the brink of huge political and social conflict in Europe.

What you think I am is irrelevant to historical facts and the reality facing us today

and what I fear is likely to happen bears no relation to what I would like to happen.

Are you really unable to understand that?

??????

[Game_Over]

You're smoking crack rocks. There's scarcely any difference between the long-run economic performance of the EU and the USA, real gdp per capita has essentially doubled since 1970. The EU is the biggest and richest single-market in the world.

So since we abandoned the Commonwealth their percentage of World trade has increased by 50% and the EU has fallen by 50%

The EU and Euro are inexorably reducing Europe to an economic basket case.

Having problems with the chart, however, what it shows is that in 1n 1973 the Commonwealth and EuroZones share of World trade were 10% and 25% respectively - they are now 15% and 15%.

[Game_Over]

This is the best chart I can quickly find for the US share of global GDP

presumably it fell after 2007?

but as everyone else is in the sh*t - possibly not by much.

Someone will probably be able to find a better chart

but the key point is - economically the EU and Euro have been a disaster for Europe

and we will now see the political consequences of this playing out over the next 10-20 years.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Game_Over

[copydude]

but the key point is - economically the EU and Euro have been a disaster for Europe

Absolutely, Game Over.

Or to put it another way, it's been pretty good for only one (1) country in the whole Eurozone.

But I am not sure I subscribe to conspiracy theories about Germany deliberately 'taking over'.

The fact is, the whole mindless expansion of the EU was pushed by NATO, in an attempt to reverse-engineer the iron curtain right up to Russia's borders. We are all really dealing with the legacy of that. From East Germany to the Baltics and Greece . . . all these countries lost their low-cost advantages and traditional Eastern focussed markets overnight. East Germany - used to build all the rolling stock for Russian trains - has never recovered. (Now Russia buys from China.) Latvia and Estonia lost exports of sprats and tourism overnight. (Don't laugh, sprats were significant revenue at one time.)

NATO, plus the EU politburo, has screwed half of Europe, and the IMF is only now applying the thumbscrews and the kiss of death.

I don't know how anyone can believe that this will end well.

[Game_Over]

Absolutely, Game Over.

Or to put it another way, it's been pretty good for only one (1) country in the whole Eurozone.

But I am not sure I subscribe to conspiracy theories about Germany deliberately 'taking over'.

The fact is, the whole mindless expansion of the EU was pushed by NATO, in an attempt to reverse-engineer the iron curtain right up to Russia's borders. We are all really dealing with the legacy of that. From East Germany to the Baltics and Greece . . . all these countries lost their low-cost advantages and traditional Eastern focussed markets overnight. East Germany - used to build all the rolling stock for Russian trains - has never recovered. (Now Russia buys from China.) Latvia and Estonia lost exports of sprats and tourism overnight. (Don't laugh, sprats were significant revenue at one time.)

NATO, plus the EU politburo, has screwed half of Europe, and the IMF is only now applying the thumbscrews and the kiss of death.

I don't know how anyone can believe that this will end well.

I don't see it as a conspiracy - I see it as inevitable demographic, social and political forces playing out over a timespan measured in decades and centuries.

The political reasons behind the founding of the EU and the creation of the Euro are widely accepted by those who understand these matters

what is now becoming apparent is that things have not worked out to plan and that rather than averting conflict in Europe the whole project is now in danger of creating the conditions for consequences it was supposed to prevent.

Trouble is, the architects of the project and those whose pockets it has stuffed with gold are now utterly unwilling or unable to change course in order to avert disaster.

The USA wants Germany tied into a Western European political, economic and military block that is capable of siezing and holding eastern Europe and facing down a potentially resurgent Russia.

It wants this because it doesn't want the cost and sacrifice of yet another large scale military intervention in Europe.

Our sovereignty and freedom are a small price to pay - apparently.

We are doing what we have always done, which is participate to the extent that we prevent any one country in Europe dominating Europe and then threatening us - perfidious Albion.

We have been prepared to pay a high economic price to achieve this, but ultimately are not prepared to sacrifice our freedom as this would defeat the object of the exercise.

IMHO.

[snowflux]

I don't see it as a conspiracy - I see it as inevitable demographic, social and political forces playing out over a timespan measured in decades and centuries.

The political reasons behind the founding of the EU and the creation of the Euro are widely accepted by those who understand these matters

what is now becoming apparent is that things have not worked out to plan and that rather than averting conflict in Europe the whole project is now in danger of creating the conditions for consequences it was supposed to prevent.

Trouble is, the architects of the project and those whose pockets it has stuffed with gold are now utterly unwilling or unable to change course in order to avert disaster.

The USA wants Germany tied into a Western European political, economic and military block that is capable of siezing and holding eastern Europe and facing down a potentially resurgent Russia.

It wants this because it doesn't want the cost and sacrifice of yet another large scale military intervention in Europe.

Our sovereignty and freedom are a small price to pay - apparently.

We are doing what we have always done, which is participate to the extent that we prevent any one country in Europe dominating Europe and then threatening us - perfidious Albion.

We have been prepared to pay a high economic price to achieve this, but ultimately are not prepared to sacrifice our freedom as this would defeat the object of the exercise.

IMHO.

You're contradicting yourself. Why would the US want a strong EU if a strong EU would be creating the conditions for conflict?

[oracle]

Every time the ECB has been tested eventually it has delivered.

Don't fight the Fed is one saying, don't fight the ECB could be another.

Ultimately they have shown willingness to deal with the issues (eventually) even if how they will be accounted for is yet to be resolved. If will probably be by a combination of different measures slowly over time.

IMHO this is good news for HPCers as my guess is that attention will now become more focused on the smaller economies such as the UK. There have been a number of posts alluding to this over the past few days...

This greater attention could prove interesting.

they have been delivering with other peoples money(and blood,for that matter).that is the problem.

other people are now getting the sense that they are being mugged.

theft and dodgy dealings are not a good way to make friends and influence people.

Edited January 9, 2013 by oracle

[oracle]

You're contradicting yourself. Why would the US want a strong EU if a strong EU would be creating the conditions for conflict?

bought-off politicians?

..or a set-up?

knowing full-well what the founding fathers had initially been fleeing from,the latter is a possibility....albeit a bit of a gamble.

[The General]

You're contradicting yourself. Why would the US want a strong EU if a strong EU would be creating the conditions for conflict?

Because as long as there is a strong EU, Germany is tied in and won't shift the paradigm to side with Russia etc. The US petro dollar based empire is already shaky enough without that

[oracle]

I don't see it as a conspiracy - I see it as inevitable demographic, social and political forces playing out over a timespan measured in decades and centuries.

The political reasons behind the founding of the EU and the creation of the Euro are widely accepted by those who understand these matters

what is now becoming apparent is that things have not worked out to plan and that rather than averting conflict in Europe the whole project is now in danger of creating the conditions for consequences it was supposed to prevent.

Trouble is, the architects of the project and those whose pockets it has stuffed with gold are now utterly unwilling or unable to change course in order to avert disaster.

The USA wants Germany tied into a Western European political, economic and military block that is capable of siezing and holding eastern Europe and facing down a potentially resurgent Russia.

true to a degree,but germany/italy still have designs on holy roman empire 2.0.

...which would like to eliminate both US and russia to gain global hegemony.....with nuclear weapons the take-out would be quite a long-lasting affair too,if both reciprocate then all their massive oil and grain exports will be glow-in-the-dark and not much use to anyone else outside their domestic populations.

mad mullahs make a convenient proxy for vented spleens.

this is realpolitik....and I'm sure there are a few smart enough yanks and russians who know what the score is....and hopefully to stop it spreading.

Edited January 9, 2013 by oracle

[oracle]

Because as long as there is a strong EU, Germany is tied in and won't shift the paradigm to side with Russia etc. The US petro dollar based empire is already shaky enough without that

...as long as germany are in charge of the EU,problem is the PTB there don't really do power-sharing.(tbh it's mainly the vatican arm doing that....the german people as a whole are mainly completely clueless about their leaderships manoevrings).

Perhaps the german people need a bit of enlightenment on what their political class are up to.......

...frankly most would baulk at the prospect of what is being attempted,and it is a very high stakes game of poker

[Game_Over]

You're contradicting yourself. Why would the US want a strong EU if a strong EU would be creating the conditions for conflict?

Because US foreign policy has been a disaster for at least 100 years

[Game_Over]

Because as long as there is a strong EU, Germany is tied in and won't shift the paradigm to side with Russia etc. The US petro dollar based empire is already shaky enough without that

Germany can never side with Russia

someone once described the history of the 20th Century as the struggle between German and Russian nationalism - forget who.

The co-operation in the 1930's was a short truce due to both nations being international pariahs

both expected the other to double cross them at some point.

The flash point has always and will always be who gets to dominate eastern Europe.

[Game_Over]

true to a degree,but germany/italy still have designs on holy roman empire 2.0.

...which would like to eliminate both US and russia to gain global hegemony.....with nuclear weapons the take-out would be quite a long-lasting affair too,if both reciprocate then all their massive oil and grain exports will be glow-in-the-dark and not much use to anyone else outside their domestic populations.

mad mullahs make a convenient proxy for vented spleens.

this is realpolitik....and I'm sure there are a few smart enough yanks and russians who know what the score is....and hopefully to stop it spreading.

TBH I think we should let Germany get on with it this time.

We should never have fought them in either WW1 or WW2 IMO.

It was their fault that we did and they lost both times as a result.

Perhaps they have learned their lesson and perhaps we have learned our lesson.

[zugzwang]

Germany can never side with Russia

someone once described the history of the 20th Century as the struggle between German and Russian nationalism - forget who.

The co-operation in the 1930's was a short truce due to both nations being international pariahs

both expected the other to double cross them at some point.

The flash point has always and will always be who gets to dominate eastern Europe.

Is that where all the gold's buried?