RufflesTheGuineaPig Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 inflation only erodes debt if it involves wage inflation...? This thread should have stopped there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 (edited) They were talking about that 4 years ago quelle suprise, it marked the top in the cross trade, not sure what else would be expected at a top other than everyone assuming continuation a certainty, you cant develop a top or a bottom without saturation Edited January 17, 2013 by Kandinski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 (edited) Is this just garbage? Of course it's garbage! These guys are in the stock distribution business, they tell their customers what they most want to hear. Which isn't to say they're automatically wrong about everything. The veritable sea-quakes of liquidity that Bernanke, Abe et al are unleashing on the world are bound to drive markets higher. And core inflation too. As for the rest of the 'prediction'? Here's what Investec had to say at the start of 2012. In its latest economic forecast, the Confederation of British Industry said it expects the British economy to expand 0.9% in 2012, followed by a "modest" 2% rate of growth projected for 2013. Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities, said that a recent series of positive economic data has contributed to a more promising outlook for Britain. In particular, January's better-than-expected surveys among purchasing managers for the manufacturing and service sectors have buoyed sentiment. "The CBI's latest forecast does look feasible, assuming that [the data] we've seen over the past month or two aren't flash in the pan," Shaw said. Edited January 17, 2013 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 More in the mail this morning http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2264174/Sterling-dives-month-low-euro-amid-worries-UK-economy.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 There she blows sub 1.20 € 1.1956 € 1.1928 - perhaps the recent articles about the UK debt ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Since the week ending March 5th 2009 when we did the first batch of QE sterling Then USD 1.40 Eur 1.12 Yen 1.40 Now USD 1.59 +13.6% Eur 1.19 +6% Yen 1.43 +2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 1.15 today against the mighty euro , when does this become serious enough for our leaders to act , Max was discussing it last night on RT with regards to phoney inflation numbers reporting along with a host of bearish views. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/currencies/will-the-pound-slump-against-the-dollar-62430 "The pound is headed to 90c against the dollar", says Paul Thomason of the Elliott Wave Market Service. That's a prediction that's bound to get every UK investor's head turning. God knows what that will do for domestic inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
campervanman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 1.15 today against the mighty euro , when does this become serious enough for our leaders to act They acted. They caved in to UKIP and the Tory right. Since the referrendum announcement the pound has fallen by 5%. UKIP/white van man types interviews on the BBC about petrol price increases never seem to mention that they are causing their own inflation. Thick as sh!t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GloomMonger Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They acted. They caved in to UKIP and the Tory right. Since the referrendum announcement the pound has fallen by 5%. UKIP/white van man types interviews on the BBC about petrol price increases never seem to mention that they are causing their own inflation. Thick as sh!t. Are you suggesting government policy should be dictated by the markets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 2 things that may trigger U.S., global correction http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-things-that-may-trigger-a-significant-correction-2013-01-29? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 FX carnage out there today. A sea of red against everything but the yen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toto deVeer Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 (edited) 2 things that may trigger U.S., global correction http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-things-that-may-trigger-a-significant-correction-2013-01-29? Sterling is caught in a vice. If the BOE does not take a hawkish stance towards interest rates there will be a currency collapse. This event could trigger a very significant rise in rates - creating a greater debt (interest) burden than the UK could sustain. This would be the equivalent of a nuclear meltdown - from an economic perspective. The US on the other hand, has the world's most robust and resilient economy - still. With all its problems the US is still the powerhouse economy. But the main danger is a complete political breakdown - a breakdown of the rule of law. This is a real possibility - for sure. The country is strung as taunt as a piano wire - I've never seen anything like it before. State legislatures are creating laws to arrest federal officials - the President is under assault from multiple directions, and the banks continue looting the country with impunity. Something is going to snap. So I don't agree with the Marketwatch analysis - the risks there are political - which could lead to an economic collapse. Compare this to the UK where the risks are economic - which could lead to political problems. Edited February 1, 2013 by Toto deVeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyracantha Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 FX carnage out there today. A sea of red against everything but the yen. Feck me - you aren't kidding! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Feck me - you aren't kidding! What has changed so much in what's seems a few days to make people change their views so much on GBP is it the threat of yet another war against somebody somewhere nobody really cares or knows anything about but which may engineer a poll boost or have we just become so debt ridden there is no hope left Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toto deVeer Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What has changed so much in what's seems a few days to make people change their views so much on GBP is it the threat of yet another war against somebody somewhere nobody really cares or knows anything about but which may engineer a poll boost or have we just become so debt ridden there is no hope left Imminent credit downgrade Expected policy of BOE Governor Carney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Feck me - you aren't kidding! -1.5% against the Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingermany Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 1.15 today against the mighty euro , when does this become serious enough for our leaders to act , Max was discussing it last night on RT with regards to phoney inflation numbers reporting along with a host of bearish views. They won't act, because inflation caused by devaluation doesn't count according to MPC. They won't raise rates or stop QE to maintain GBP relative value, at least they haven't so far. Either way the BoE and Cameron will blame Europe. Poor UK export performance=fault of weak EZ.. Expensive imports=fault of strong Euro (bad Germans). They will never admit to the folly of ultra lax monetary policy and the encouragement of unsustainable debt. Cameron still repeating mantra of "have to get the banks lending" just like Brown's "it started in America". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohreally Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sub 1.15 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toto deVeer Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Maybe collapsed Sterling combined with hundreds of thousands Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants will turn the UK into the economic powerhouse of Europe... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 (edited) EUR/GBP back to where we were in 2009/2011. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBPEUR=X#symbol=;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined; Edited February 1, 2013 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They won't act, because inflation caused by devaluation doesn't count according to MPC. They won't raise rates or stop QE to maintain GBP relative value, at least they haven't so far. Either way the BoE and Cameron will blame Europe. Poor UK export performance=fault of weak EZ.. Expensive imports=fault of strong Euro (bad Germans). They will never admit to the folly of ultra lax monetary policy and the encouragement of unsustainable debt. Cameron still repeating mantra of "have to get the banks lending" just like Brown's "it started in America". It's exactly what they want. Tempt more foreigners to buy "cheaper" houses in London, make ex-pats with sterling pensions feel they have to return home and buy UK property and make people thinking of leaving the UK stay here because abroad looks more expensive. Even now though sterling is still ahead of what it was v the Euro when we started QE in 2009 and since then European property has plunged. So sterling has held up well against something! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 If you look at that extract against some currencies the pound is near its 52 week high. In many of them its right bang in the middle of its 52 weeks range. In some of them its near its 52 week low. Just a little context Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's exactly what they want. Tempt more foreigners to buy "cheaper" houses in London, make ex-pats with sterling pensions feel they have to return home and buy UK property and make people thinking of leaving the UK stay here because abroad looks more expensive. Even now though sterling is still ahead of what it was v the Euro when we started QE in 2009 and since then European property has plunged. So sterling has held up well against something! Six months ago I thought I was holding too many Euros, now I think it's probably about right . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Six months ago I thought I was holding too many Euros, now I think it's probably about right . I saw the post where you had sold your Euros but must have missed where you went back in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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