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House Prices Aren't Allowed To Crash

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I'd like to try something different. Something I believe that we haven't explored yet. I'd like to get the creative juices flowing...

Instead of discussing why house prices are set to fall (or not as the case may be), can we all use some imagination and foresight to do the following:

Produce a short forecast on the quality of life for the average family in the UK for the years 2005-2010. The only rule you must consider is that house prices will not be allowed to drop by more than 5% over that period (the government will do anything possible to prevent it from happening for the purpose of this exercise).

What measures will the government have to take to meet this target, how will it effect the rest of the economy and how will it effect the average family's quality/standard of living?

This thread could be extremely interesting reading. We have lots of extremely educated/intuitive/experienced posters on these boards and so I will not even embarass myself by attempting to predict what would happen but will sit back and learn.

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I'd like to try something different. Something I believe that we haven't explored yet. I'd like to get the creative juices flowing...

Instead of discussing why house prices are set to fall (or not as the case may be), can we all use some imagination and foresight to do the following:

Produce a short forecast on the quality of life for the average family in the UK for the years 2005-2010. The only rule you must consider is that house prices will not be allowed to drop by more than 5% over that period (the government will do anything possible to prevent it from happening for the purpose of this exercise).

What measures will the government have to take to meet this target, how will it effect the rest of the economy and how will it effect the average family's quality/standard of living?

This thread could be extremely interesting reading. We have lots of extremely educated/intuitive/experienced posters on these boards and so I will not even embarass myself by attempting to predict what would happen but will sit back and learn.

Simple, by modifying the ever-extensible tax credit system.

We have,

Working Tax Credit

Child Tax Credit

...we wiill introduce a new strand, the

Mortgage Tax Credit

(You saw it here first :) )

Edited by I don't believe you

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Simple, by modifying the ever-extensible tax credit system.

We have,

Working Tax Credit

Child Tax Credit

...we wiill introduce a new strand, the

Mortgage Tax Credit

(You saw it here first :) )

That might happen!!! :o

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Hasn't that been tried before? I thought that was one of policies that the government abolished in 1998. I could be mistaken on this one though.

Edited by bring_it_on

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Government's plan:

Print more money, hire more people into the public sector,

lie about (rising) inflation, and hope the gilt market does not notice.

Find a way to stimulate property demand by fiddling with taxes and pensions.

In short... do exactly what this government has done

but how much longer can they viably hide inflation? It really would stuff us too, if this little inflation pussycat got out of the bag.

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Government's plan:

Print more money, hire more people into the public sector,

lie about (rising) inflation, and hope the gilt market does not notice.

Find a way to stimulate property demand by fiddling with taxes and pensions.

In short... do exactly what this government has done

Won't this ultimately weaken the pound?

So when our currency is worth tuppence hapney internationally, all that imported tat we've come to love so much might be worth a fortune at the car boot sales.

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Government's plan:

Print more money, hire more people into the public sector,

lie about (rising) inflation, and hope the gilt market does not notice.

Find a way to stimulate property demand by fiddling with taxes and pensions.

In short... do exactly what this government has done

I agree with DrBubb except I do not see a need for them to stimulate property demand. Except maybe through the creation of a house price plunge protection team. (Central Banks crave stability).

But they will add extra ways to tax people to prevent wealth being accumulated too much by the undeserving.

And they will come up with more government projects like ID cards as a way of throwing cash into the economy.

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Government's plan:

Print more money, hire more people into the public sector,

lie about (rising) inflation, and hope the gilt market does not notice.

Find a way to stimulate property demand by fiddling with taxes and pensions.

In short... do exactly what this government has done

DrBubb, I would like some more of your thoughts on this. I have been thinking this is what might happen in the US. I know, I know, Americans allready make much more than many people around the world, and hyper inflatoin would only make that worse. But what I was wondering is, what if the US dollar takes a nose dive. Can we have hyper inflation, AND a rapedly falling dollar? With Iran talking of selling n Euros, and what China has done...The Euro could be the new dollar.

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Hmmm... Much larger tax levels, both direct and indirect, giving rise to wipespread tax evasion. Much larger public sector employment and people receiving social security to create a vast and permanent tranche of VI Labour voters. Cuts in spending on defence and law and order to help pay for it. In short, we become Belgium.

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Anybody selling a house for less than 10% more than they bought it for - Behead them for Economic Terrorism.

Anybody not buying or selling at least one house every 5 years - Behead them and send them to Guantanamo Bay. And charge them for it.

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Government's plan:

Print more money, hire more people into the public sector,

lie about (rising) inflation, and hope the gilt market does not notice.

Find a way to stimulate property demand by fiddling with taxes and pensions.

In short... do exactly what this government has done

Can you explain what you mean by 'print more money' ?

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[quote name='whoops_apocalypse' date='Nov 6 2005, 06:10 PM' post='228826'

Brown is in effect, harmonising our economy by increasing the percentage of national tax take with very little, if any, improvement in public services. To back this up, all I need to do is to remind the reader that on 17th Nov, 1998, eleven Social Democrat/Socialist EU Finance Ministers signed up to a policy document entitled 'The New European Way' which deemed varying national tax systems resulted in the 'distortion of competition'.

I have long thought that the only way the EU could function in the long term would be by total harmonisation of everything.

Regulations, laws, wages, taxes and prices.

It can, logically, be no other way.

Anyone who would seek to tell you otherwise is either a fool or lying.

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I'd like to try something different. Something I believe that we haven't explored yet. I'd like to get the creative juices flowing...

Instead of discussing why house prices are set to fall (or not as the case may be), can we all use some imagination and foresight to do the following:

Produce a short forecast on the quality of life for the average family in the UK for the years 2005-2010. The only rule you must consider is that house prices will not be allowed to drop by more than 5% over that period (the government will do anything possible to prevent it from happening for the purpose of this exercise).

What measures will the government have to take to meet this target, how will it effect the rest of the economy and how will it effect the average family's quality/standard of living?

This thread could be extremely interesting reading. We have lots of extremely educated/intuitive/experienced posters on these boards and so I will not even embarass myself by attempting to predict what would happen but will sit back and learn.

No idea how they'll do it, but the picture for those of working age is grim. We will become a country in which a significant, and very visible, cohort of fit 60/70/80 somethings live, either alone or in pairs, in the vast majority of big detached family homes. Their streets will be patrolled by private security guards and will be cleansed of noisy small children. Their roads will have speed humps and allocated parking spaces. There will be severe noise restrictions. Cities will become more obviously segregated with the poorest herded into what remains of council/HA stock. Anyone with money or get-up-and-go will move to the nicer areas on the fringes of the areas inhabited by the older generation.

Because there are large numbers of them they and their interests will dominate the political discourse. They will vote large sums for the NHS and for pensions. There will be more ASBOs and more clamp-downs on the poor and on those claiming benefits.

Manufacturing/productive industry will continue to be run down. Service industries that cater for the old will increase. More people will be employed as cooks/cleaners/retirement home care staff. There will be more disabled parking bays in city centres and they will be more strictly policed.

Those in work will pay higher taxes and will see their projected pensions cut. The retirement age will rise. More and more people will rent from btl stock owned by the older generation. They will work all hours to support their mortgages. They will not be unionised as they will not be able to afford to withdraw their labour in any circumstances, because if they do they will fall behind with their mortgage payments. They will continue to be told it is all a matter of market forces and it's always been really hard to get on the property ladder.

The birthrate will plummet. There will be more and more overcrowding as families are crammed into one-bed appartments. The press will pay no attention to this as these families will be concentrated in marginal areas developed on brownfield sites, out of site of the older and wealthier.

There will still be nett immigation because workers from underdeveloped countries will still be able to come over here for a few years, live in squalor, and go home with a significant amount of money. This option is not available to the indigent population of working age who will become more depressed.

Those with real drive and intelligence will emigrate if they can't find a way into the privileged classes. Either way they will pull up the ladder behind them, as the upper echelons of New Labour has collectively done.

Those with good, well-paid jobs they like will hang onto them and retire later, blocking the way for the young. The country generally will be increasingly sclerotic, obsessed with the past, and unable to generate new ideas in any field (except medical advances in care of the elderly and their ailments).

The young will become increasingly bitter and disaffected. After a while they will stop buying housing as they will see what a scam it is, after seeing their contemporaries crucified by high mortgage payments. They will start to value other things in life than money. They will cease to be active economic agents and will go in for a form of internal exile from the world of work. They will choose life rather than selling their soul to pay off a lifetime's debt burden for a poky little one-bed executive appartment, knowing full well they will never be able to buy a house.

Some people will inherit loads of money and they'll be alright. For the rest - well, guys, you're being conned, but you already know that.

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http://www.skipton.co.uk/publicity_campaig...in_a_decade.asp

The skipton projected that the 1 trillion of debt would grow to 1.6 trillion in a decade by 2015.

The effects projected? - a population with no realist retirement, unable to afford children, and huge housing costs facing a grim treadmill.

Since publishing this report in 2004 the debt mountain has already grown to over 1.1trillion

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Awww thanks guys for the replies - I do try and do a nicely turned phrase! Certainly I've done my own calculations and the answer is - getting my income up to the point that I can afford the cheapest nastiest one-bed flat round here would destroy my quality of life. I'd also be too scared to go out at night and would need some serious home insurance, and I reckon my car insurance would go up as well. And I'd be too embarrassed to take anybody home and admit I'd actually bought said appartment. All that for a 25 year life sentence of enforced slavery and constant worry that I can keep making ends meet? No thankyou. So for the moment I do more or less what I want to do, work when I have to, and let my landlady take the strain. I'm not thrilled about renting but I'm paying no more now than I was two years ago, and there's no shortage of rental property round here. Why wreck my quality of life to earn slightly more so I can rent more space, which I don't actually need?

It isn't often remarked on but bull arguments are invariably underpinned by the assumption that however eye-watering prices get, people will do whatever it takes to pay them. This is an assumption and it is perfectly possible that future generations of ftbs will decide that the game isn't worth the candle. There's no point in saying "well, everybody needs somewhere to live", because of course that's true. But it doesn't follow that they'll do whatever it takes to buy. They might simply decide to do something more interesting with their lives, and rent whatever comes along - leaving btlers in negative equity and people who've bought property as their pensions without enough potential buyers to sustain prices. It is a big assumption that you can keep raising the hoops without people losing interest in jumping through them when they see they can't make it.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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