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ianbeale

Hpc Confidence Index

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The purpose of this poll is to provide a confidence index figure for how the members of this forum believe the HPC is going. this will be achieved, answering the single question of "Do you think that HPC is delivering to your expectations within your timescale". For starters a nominal figure of over 50% for yes would indicate the HPC is going well. If the poll is well suported I will start another one every month so that sentiment can be tracked and act as an indicator of MOM improvement/deteriation of sentiment.

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I'm still very hopeful that within 4 years prices will be down sufficiently for me to buy a house more or less outright in cash. However, I wouldn't say I am 100% convinced that will happen, I still have some doubts because of the muppet herd mentality of the average Brit and the VI's who might yet spoil my plan!!

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I was expecting to see YOY negative by now, so I answered no. I am slightly concerned that a slow downward drift might occur instead. If that results in a 20% reduction over the next four years, then I'll settle for that, but I still believe there will be a crash of > 40%, but it may be later than I expected.

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I believe we are still on track for a correction, but it is not going to happen as quickly as we either hoped or expected. The general herd are still not waking up to the problems this country is facing, based on the VI spin and a Labour Government that is desparately trying to keep this bubble inflated (they will run out of air at some stage...) In the meantime we shall have to put up with the bullish comments and wait patiently... <_<

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I think you should include the answer "undecided" in your next poll.........

I decided not to add an "undecided" value as I do not believe it hold any value in producing a figure based about the 50% mark. I am not a big fan of the sit on the fence stance. I do not believe that you cannot give a yes/no answer to a question that fits to each individuals perception. People who are truly undecided will will not be able to answer this question decisively and should therefore not vote.

Early signs are that this poll may well produce a meaningful statistic that will be interesting to monitor over the coming months.

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My expectations are ever more despearate vI spin,

manipulation of the headline indices to disguise the

size of the falls, trumpeting of the slightest rise as

meaning the (previously unannounced) crash is at

an end, false dawns, fake predicitions for next years

HPI

A resounding yes

ABB

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I voted yes.

* HPC was mentioned on ITV news.

* Repossessions and Bankruptcy going UPWARDS

* The word CRASH getting more frequent on telly.

* Halifax and NW stating quite categorically that you should NOT expect prices to rise. i.e. Its gonna be bad for a while.

* EA's are trying to talk the market down

* CH4 forum OUT of denial (http://community.channel4.com/groupee/forums/a/tpc/f/6026044741/m/9580058243)

All this in the last month or so - MASSIVE step forward imho.

I honest believe the only thing slowing it down is the reporting of it. Houses in REAL terms are 10-25% below their initial asking price but getting reports showing small dips. The figures are reported in a favourable view.

EG

House Valuation £160,000 Last sold £120,000 (Oct 04) Sold Price £130,000 Number sold 8

House Valuation £200,000 Last sold £160,000 (Oct 04) Sold Price £170,000 Number sold 5

If I compare the two figures I see there was 8 sales in the first one with a total sale value of £1,040,000 with an average price of £130,000

Figure 2 had NO SALES in the lower end of the ladder and only sold the next rung up. Total sales of £850,000 with an average price of £170,000

So in theory average house sale prices are UP 40K or UP 30%. The reality is the 200K houses are DOWN £30K or DOWN 15% and there is NO bottom rung. Only the higher valued houses are selling at the biggest reductions.

It depends how it is reported. I believe the reports ARE YoY Negative in REAL TERMS but we just aint hearing it yet. Whilst they report the market up - the sellers will not drop their prices. When they eventually report that its gone TITS UP (expecially of there is rate RISE) - see drops thick and fast.

Hope that helps - ( :huh: DOH!!!!)

TB

The other thing that needs mentioning is the fact that HPI up 3.5% YoY is not aproblem as this is roughly inflation. We are sliding down the slippery slope so expect drops of 10% or so and your wages going up 3% - in real terms affordability is coming back.

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Guest struthitsruth

From about 2001 onwards I have found it hard to believe that house prices could go on defying gravity, and my expectations were proved wrong year after year which left me mystified - until now - finally, the HPC is definately merging with my idea of reality

:)

However I don't think it will be a crash type landing - I believe prices will slide steadily over a long period, and that a small proportion of very unfortunate buyers will still be in negative equity in twenty years time

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Hmm. It looks as though an awful lot of posters are not convinced about HPC.

That is my position. I was, for the period Q1 04 up until the Q2 of this year more or less convinced by the arguments on this site. The fruit has failed to ripen.

I think many have failed to realise just how much time has passed with nothing to report bar a bit of a bloody nose for some high street retailers (retailers who's practises are rather dated in any case). 18 months after the agreed peak house prices are still going up (though not in anger) across the majority of the country.

I like this forum, I enjoy the views and the concentration of decent news articles presented but I cannot share the mainstream view of a major correction anymore. It is passed time for the 'carnage'.

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I was expecting to see YOY negative by now, so I answered no. I am slightly concerned that a slow downward drift might occur instead. If that results in a 20% reduction over the next four years, then I'll settle for that, but I still believe there will be a crash of > 40%, but it may be later than I expected.

This is precisely how I see it. I was convinced this time last year we would be yoy negative by now.

But the self cert interest only mortgage/ VI brigade etc seem to be holding the line. And as mentioned in another thread the VI's are winning the PR war hands down. For me a 20% reduction in 4 years would be disappointing, and not synonymous with the word 'crash'. 40% in four years would be a different matter.

Edited by Baz63

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Supposing I am wrong and the HPC is really happening.

I can only give one reason for the continued persistance of HPI to remain > 0.

Halifax report on sales agreed. Given the loss of the FTB brigade recently it is plausible that chains are being constructed from top down i.e the people with houses already can still, in theory go all the way and so make offers and accept offers. These offers then all get crunched by Halifax despite the fact the chains will seldom be completed because there is no one at the bottom to put in the REAL new money.

If I were still a solid advocate, this is how I would bet.

This, at least would explain how Hometrack and the other surveys appear temporarily at odds with the Halifax.

I think the reality is that in 2003 the BoE finished off the rally before it got to bubble proportions. What we are left with now is a midly over priced market for which a few years of slow HPI and 4% wage inflation will correct.

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This site is a bit like driving with my kids in the back...

...are we there yet?...

...usually just after I pull out of the drive!

Sometimes for fun (and to shut them up) I say 'Yes'

Sometimes for fun (and to get them to recognise landmarks and the environment around them) I say 'No'

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This site is a bit like driving with my kids in the back...

...are we there yet?...

...usually just after I pull out of the drive!

Sometimes for fun (and to shut them up) I say 'Yes'

Sometimes for fun (and to get them to recognise landmarks and the environment around them) I say 'No'

...but after so long the parents finally admit that they are lost and start telling the kids in the back to shut up.

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Guest The_Oldie

Hmm. It looks as though an awful lot of posters are not convinced about HPC.

That is my position. I was, for the period Q1 04 up until the Q2 of this year more or less convinced by the arguments on this site. The fruit has failed to ripen.

I think many have failed to realise just how much time has passed with nothing to report bar a bit of a bloody nose for some high street retailers (retailers who's practises are rather dated in any case). 18 months after the agreed peak house prices are still going up (though not in anger) across the majority of the country.

I like this forum, I enjoy the views and the concentration of decent news articles presented but I cannot share the mainstream view of a major correction anymore. It is passed time for the 'carnage'.

Interesting post from someone who only joined yesterday :rolleyes:.

There would be a few less posters though without your efforts, wouldn't there?

It's hard to take you seriously, when you post as multiple identities <_<.

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well I honestly thought we would see more widespread YOY negative by now.

.....if hometrack is accurate then my prediction is pretty much on track,and there was a fantastic article in the times yesterday to the effect of "NW/HBOS indices aren't to be trusted"

....so I think it really is just a waiting game now,the last dregs of HBOS stats are going to get flushed out shortly....and if the BoE do push up rates again as some predict then that will send them tumbling for sure.

Australia is probably our best guide,they are about a year ahead of us,and they ARE falling there.

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Short term house price crash? .......no. Longer term slide? ........YES!

I have absolutely no doubt that we have entered a protracted slide downwards in house values which will unravel during the next 2-3 years, both statistics and sentiment are too compelling. Genuine cycles take time to materialise - be patient the bears will be rewarded.

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I don't believe you,

Exactly what I'm thinking. The market may now be simply over-priced at the moment and not of bubble proportions. A crash is simply not happening, if anything it's strengthening. Look at loan approvals according to the BoE they are picking up, also loan approvals did not slump for long enough to really squeeze the market. We also do not have the extent of forced sellers the way we did in the 90's. Certanly the EAs near me aren't cr*pping their pants at the moment.

I think the froth has been knocked off the top of the market and vendor bargaining power has been reduced somewhat.

Chances of big nominal drops without some sort of economic distress is very slight IMO. In real terms you may well have a crash, but to Average Joe it's nominal value that is really important. I suspect many bears will be posting here in a years time, still waiting...

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Not to sound arrogant, but I beleive it is the U.S. that is keeping this house of cards from crashing globally. The U.S. can create so much liquidity that it is able to sustain world-wide markets through a massive carry-trade.

That carry-trade is unwinding - fast - and a few more rate hikes by the US Central Bank should seal the deal for the global housing crash with Britain, the Aussies, and the "Blue States" leading the way down.

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I think the problem here is that the majority of people who are on this forum or just joining have joined because they were about to/looking at buying a house NOW! So when it does not move fast enough we give up hope.

I have explained the LR figures in another post

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=18995

But briefly, we hear, and I quote "House Prices have rose even though sales have dropped". Lets just leave it there and like me, you think F%^&£$ TWA^&% BAS%&^SDDD! (right?)

Unfortunately, the majority of the populus think the same. But it is just manipulation of figures (read other thread for explanation). I have concluded that the FTB market is around the £150K mark, although £200K may be more appropriate in some parts of the country. This market is COLLAPSING NOW! This is the area that will need the correction. This is moving FASTER in the last 2-3 months than it ever has. I believe that come summer next year this area will be in turmoil.

Yes 250K+ houses are selling but probably after a massive discount of 10-40%. Unfortunately, this price will still be higher than say 'last sold' in 2003. Therefore, in theory, it has gone UP in price even though the price paid to asking price is say 30% DOWN. The statistics show that the average property will only drop if the sub 150K properties are selling and the 200K (asking price) properties drop into the <150K catergory.

THIS WILL HAPPEN - I believe as soon as SUMMER next year. So those in the FTB bracket should feel confident that things ARE MOVING at a good rate imho. The rest of the market will follow, but this bottom end is crucial to the health of the housing market.

TB

Chin up - its looking good. We just need the media to be a little more unbias with their reporting

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If you search through the chaff you can find some gems:

I was surprised at this one:

Guildford flats in the stockbroker belt "best place to live" (I think that was a Kirsty/Phil comment) the prices DOWN 18% in the last quarter!

BBC regional house info

I would say that was an alarming fall, you have to look at the detail, remember it is the FTB that can't or won't buy so look at the lower end!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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