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2013 Prediction Thread


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US Recovery to gain traction, fueled quite literally by further exploitation of The Great Game Changer: Shale Gas.

US housing market to make near double-digit monthly gains by year end, proving that Warren Buffet's adage "only a fool shorts America" is as true now as it was fourty years ago.

UK following up the rear as the world's greatest Johnny Come Lately realises that it's only hope is fracking. Brexit now inevitable as major parties realise that NOT offering this option will lose them the next General Election.

Gold to trend down but with strong floor at $1200 as global recovery gains hold.

Interest Rates will remain ultra-low as Canadian Governor eases off targeting inflation.

And... UK House Prices I think flat, maybe slightly higher nominally at year end (2-4% depending on where you ask).

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* Gold bubble will burst

* Nominal house prices will rise

* Growth will surprise to the upside

Very wooly & vague terminology. Any actual numbers?

My guess is that in 2013 gold in sterling terms will at some point be 20% higher than today, and will end the year at least 10% higher than today. At time of posting it is £1,024 per ounce.

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Another ancient prediction will be discovered setting a new date for the end of the world.

It could be new stuff from the Quatrains of Nostradamus, the Mayans' Calender rewritten or even in a yet to be discovered book written by Orwell (etc) but for sure a new date will in time be set and next year is as good a time as ever - provided the planet gets past 21 December 2012.

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Another ancient prediction will be discovered setting a new date for the end of the world.

It could be new stuff from the Quatrains of Nostradamus, the Mayans' Calender rewritten or even in a yet to be discovered book written by Orwell (etc) but for sure a new date will in time be set and next year is as good a time as ever - provided the planet gets past 21 December 2012.

Provided the planet gets past Dec 21? It's guaranteed, man! Even if the Sun shut down on Friday the Earth would still endure.

A more interesting question is why we continue to promulgate such pre-Copernican bunk? Poincare established definitively that the future evolution of even the simplest nonlinear system rapidly escapes computation. The Mayans couldn't even predict their own demise let alone the end of the world.

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Someone like to predict what the AAPL share price will do in 2013? (my own opinion is that Apple is worthless).

I wouldn't say worthless but certainly worth a lot less than the current valuation. It has to be a slow slide downwards unless they unveil a "magical and revolutionary product". My guess is that in a few years time they could be the people to turn Google Glasses from a toy for nerds to something stylish and 'essential' for the masses.

Apple may quietly dump their own mapping app in favour of Google's or perhaps even Nokia's.

Elsewhere? A long slow grind downwards in house prices*, wealth for most of us coupled with 5-10% rises in the cost of essentials like food and energy.

Inflation will remain above target.

A Doctor Who 50th anniversary special will be screened which most fans will be disappointed by.

Facebook under $10 at some point? Their IPO might start being acknowledged as the peak of web bubble 2.

*Could be a massive crash since I bought a couple of months ago.

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* Gold bubble will burst

* Nominal house prices will rise

* Growth will surprise to the upside

Come on, R K - you're a TA man. You must have support levels that you believe will be broken for gold (and those that you predict will hold for housing), even downside targets that will be reached when those support levels are broken. Otherwise what is the point of your craft?

Are your nominal house price predictions based on RPI or CPI?

These wishy washy non-predictions are not far off those of RB's over the years. Give us the numbers.

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I think my prediction for 2013 is that it is the year the EU gets sussed, and civil unrest rules.

Pundits seem to think that we (shovelling bailout money) are keeping the markets calm for Merkel's re-election. Then there will be some 'orderly defaults'. I'm not sure another year of 'more Europe' will last that long.

There are now strikes/protests every other week in Spain and Greece. Last demo in Spain - about the hospital sell-offs - was co-ordinated and supported in no less than 55 cities.

Since the EU has anihilated democracy, the rise of extremist parties and nationalists is quite significant. Golden Dawn in Greece is up to 14% from nowhere. By the way, a ComRes poll here in December put UKIP at 14% too. If that doesn't sound like much, compare it to the Lib Dems on 9%.

It has more been of a Euro Coma than a Euro Crisis so far . . . but not a single problem has been solved and people are waking up.

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US Recovery to gain traction, fueled quite literally by further exploitation of The Great Game Changer: Shale Gas.

US housing market to make near double-digit monthly gains by year end, proving that Warren Buffet's adage "only a fool shorts America" is as true now as it was fourty years ago.

UK following up the rear as the world's greatest Johnny Come Lately realises that it's only hope is fracking. Brexit now inevitable as major parties realise that NOT offering this option will lose them the next General Election.

Gold to trend down but with strong floor at $1200 as global recovery gains hold.

Interest Rates will remain ultra-low as Canadian Governor eases off targeting inflation.

And... UK House Prices I think flat, maybe slightly higher nominally at year end (2-4% depending on where you ask).

don't think it will be shale gas that's the killer app.

I think it will be when some bright spark realises that most of the midwest US is sitting on top of a gigantic heat source and decides geothermal is the way to go.

...but I don't think it will be "normal" geothermal..as in pumping water.......could be peltier(ie two dissimilar metals producing small voltage difference under temperature).....so lots and lots of cables of this nature stuck down hollow tubes.

..also pretty much sabotage-proof in SHTF scenario.

good use for scrap metal and basically free electricity.

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Gold may drift lower drip drip but we should see something to catalyse it upwards. More QE? If gold makes new highs in 2013 in dollar terms I will be buying and will be looking for $2400. Otherwise short term players should already be stopped out and waiting on the sidelines with just a core insurance holding. I will be surprised if we see under $1000. The gold graph is almost like the houseprice nominal graph.

UK home prices probably wont do much but drift drip drip. I will be excited if it makes a new high or new two year low. I will be surprised to see UK home prices below £100k in 2013.

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I think the recession hasn't really started properly. Despite the figures, in practical terms its been a recessionette. So next year its on the cards it will finally start.

And we never had a credit crunch. Who made that up. The credit crunch was a return to normality.

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Greece goes tits up, then the dominoes start to fall, within 2 weeks of the Greek collapse, the global financial system falls totally. World wide civil unrest with murderous mobs of staving people killing to try to get food, city populations starving, infrastructure collapse, food and water supplies gone.

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2013 will be much the same as 2012, but with less sport, much hysteria about name/sex/weight/arrival date of royal sprog.

Nice places and most of London will continue to have a semi-functioning market which might rise a bit, but not by more than inflation.

Nasty places will continue to have no real market except that based on distressed sellers, BTL sharks, etc.

Banks will continue to make borrowing difficult.

People will need to spend more and more of their income on basics and will have less and less money to save for a deposit.

The county will get ever closer to being dividing permanently into those that own property and those that don't.

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I think the recession hasn't really started properly. Despite the figures, in practical terms its been a recessionette. So next year its on the cards it will finally start.

And we never had a credit crunch. Who made that up. The credit crunch was a return to normality.

You're right and wrong about the credit crunch. It really did happen - to the banks. The extraordinary govt interventions that followed have limited the impact on the rest of us. When these ultimately fail, as I believe they must, then the Depression proper will resume in earnest.

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You're right and wrong about the credit crunch. It really did happen - to the banks. The extraordinary govt interventions that followed have limited the impact on the rest of us. When these ultimately fail, as I believe they must, then the Depression proper will resume in earnest.

+1

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