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The scale of this "crash" has remained hidden, partially because the two most high-profile house price indices - from Nationwide and Halifax - exclude properties worth more than £1 million, Bell says.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...%2Fcmprop27.xml

After 18 months on HPC I don't remember this being raised before...

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From :

The scale of this "crash" has remained hidden, partially because the two most high-profile house price indices - from Nationwide and Halifax - exclude properties worth more than £1 million, Bell says.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...%2Fcmprop27.xml

After 18 months on HPC I don't remember this being raised before...

Actually, that (three year old) article is out of date. Halifax do now include properties over £1 million.

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And guess what else they ignore, cash purchases; one assesment said it was 20% of the market so all the really cheapies from auction etc don't register either. :D

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I've always known of this.

QAs far as I'm concerned, you are welcome to a crash in over £1mill properties. Enjoy it, it won't change anything for the posters on this site though.

wouldn't be so sure of that, thanks to HPI homes of 1 million+ are no longer mansions

In London and the South East (where the booms start and where the booms finish) it has a lot to do with the whole UK market

When prices in the top parts of London double,so do the prices in the nearby 'good area's' like Battersea, Wandsworth etc,

This extends out the the suburbs and home counties - jumps up to the Midlands and the SW - across to Wales and further north and finally the places further away like Newcastle, Cumbria, Scotland and Northern Ireland

If prices for expensive one million+ houses in London drop bigtime, so will 2 bed terraces in Newcastle

This assumes its similar to last time

Maybe this time its different because

a) it won't happen

B) it will happen, but this time the effect will ripple across the UK a lot quicker

Edited by 88Crash

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Okay...

:)

more people are going bankrupt now then when interest rates were at 14 percent last time.

and interest rates are heding up..

I was told, on this site, that it had been speculated that the level of debt in this country would cause a similar meltdown to the previous 15 % interest rates.. if they ever even hit long term average 6%...

I thought it was crazy talk..

Madness.

turns out we are outstripping bunkrupsies at 4.5%..

Christ..

This is going to go bang in a big way...

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2002 was still a big mortgage aka debt rally. There's a difference from then and now because the debt taken on is too large for many.

Low interest rates seem to be questionable at the moment. This doesn't give people much breathing space even if interest rates rise slightly.

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"Consumer spending is still surging, but I don't think many people realise that the economy is really in a vulnerable state," warns Whitehead.

Does he read economic data? Consumer spending still surging? We are in the middle of one of the biggest consumer slowdowns seen in the last two decades.

Also one of the economists says that interest rates aren't so high as in the last crash, but back in the 80s people borried less at higher rates, so when rates changed the effects weren't so great, Now people have borrowed to the max at lower rates, so even small .25% changes can have a big impact on peoples budget and reduce their ability to spend.

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Is this true ? It's an amazing fact if so.

Buckers

I appeared to be over a year ago. If they haven't changed it since.

Someone on hpc once published all the ways they arrived at there figures, along with the final line we reserve the right to change the way we calculate these figures without notice (words to that effect).

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Would it then mean that if properties over £1m fall 10-20%, they'll come into the market tracked by the indices from the top end, making it look as if average prices have gone up? If so, it could be quite important even to those of us at the bottom end of the scale.

Or doesn't it work like that?

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And here it is HPC'ers, this is how they do it.

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/indexmethodology.asp

Quote:

"We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices at any time for regulatory or other reasons"

Would it then mean that if properties over £1m fall 10-20%, they'll come into the market tracked by the indices from the top end, making it look as if average prices have gone up? If so, it could be quite important even to those of us at the bottom end of the scale.

Or doesn't it work like that?

Quote:

"Properties over £1 million have been included since December 2002 to reflect the increasing number of this hitherto tiny market segment."

From

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/indexmethodology.asp

Edited by deano

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Guest muttley

And guess what else they ignore, cash purchases; one assesment said it was 20% of the market so all the really cheapies from auction etc don't register either. :D

That would exclude people downgrading then.

So a person swaps their 600k property with someone who has a 200k property.Average property is 400k,right?

Nope.The average price of these two properties is 200k.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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