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Hino98

Crash And Burn

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The real estate market in Australia, has been in freefall, for over a year now. Estate agents are laying off staff, cutting down on advertising and advising prospective vendor...."if you don't need so sell. don't try to sell".

Just when vendors thought that the situation couldn't get any worse, the boss of one of Australia's biggest home lenders, advises people to get out of the market while they still can.

full story here.....

http://www.dailytelegraph.news.com.au/stor...5001021,00.html

Sorry "Smurf", I've only just seen your post on the same subject. 'Fraid I don't know how to delete this thread.

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The real estate market in Australia, has been in freefall, for over a year now. Estate agents are laying off staff, cutting down on advertising and advising prospective vendor...."if you don't need so sell. don't try to sell".

Just when vendors thought that the situation couldn't get any worse, the boss of one of Australia's biggest home lenders, advises people to get out of the market while they still can.

full story here.....

http://www.dailytelegraph.news.com.au/stor...5001021,00.html

Sorry "Smurf", I've only just seen your post on the same subject. 'Fraid I don't know how to delete this thread.

Not to worry, we can have two threads...

IMO this is a major development in the crash because it's coming from a reasonably well respected person. OK, everybody knows that he's in business to make a profit but to my understanding most people think he knows what he's on about so will pay far more attention than if it were you or I saying the same thing.

I see that you are in NSW. Not sure about the rest of the country but in Hobart we now have a very visible war between builders. One is engaging in heavy radio and print advertising complete with nice catchy jingle. And the key thing they emphasise is that they've cut the price of building so obviously they're not busy. Now another builder seems to be starting the print advertising too. Another recent change down here is the use of radio advertising to sell individual properties. Whilst radio advertising here is quite a lot cheaper than the major stations in Sydney or Melbourne, it's still a fairly expensive means of selling a house compared to the old board out the front and ad in the paper which suggests those older methods just aren't having much success. Oh, and I see the agents now have a nice standardised "price reduced" icon to put in their print advertising and are starting to use it quite a bit...

I was still somewhat doubtful about this crash as recently as September. What I have seen since then has left me in no doubt whatsoever. It IS happening. As for the predicted 10% fall next year, if anything that might turn out to be a rather conservative estimate.

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I've been following the Sydney market for about 12 months now and can find no anecdotal evidence of price reductions. I am a bear but I have been following mainly the Mcgrath website and have seen no evidence of any price reductions even though some properties I have been watching have been on there for 9 months+ without a single reduction. We are moving to Sydney and again the new home builders seem to be offerering no reductions or offers on their websites, although it is encouraging to read some of the information realting to Oz on this site.

This is a house I have been watching, it is overlooked by a neighbouring apartment block and appears to be of fairly cheap build quality and of course there is the extortionate price for a property that is situated nowhere near to water and not that close to the CBD

http://www.mcgrath.com.au/buying/index.cfm...00&sortby=price

And yet it has just been stuck there month upon month with the vendor refusing to drop the price.

It would be really good to keep an Oz thread going here.

I've been following the Sydney market for about 12 months now and can find no anecdotal evidence of price reductions. I am a bear but I have been following mainly the Mcgrath website and have seen no evidence of any price reductions even though some properties I have been watching have been on there for 9 months+ without a single reduction. We are moving to Sydney and again the new home builders seem to be offerering no reductions or offers on their websites, although it is encouraging to read some of the information realting to Oz on this site.

This is a house I have been watching, it is overlooked by a neighbouring apartment block and appears to be of fairly cheap build quality and of course there is the extortionate price for a property that is situated nowhere near to water and not that close to the CBD

http://www.mcgrath.com.au/buying/index.cfm...00&sortby=price

And yet it has just been stuck there month upon month with the vendor refusing to drop the price.

It would be really good to keep an Oz thread going here.

Can't get the link to work properly but it is the Breakfast Point $1,725,000 property - Sorry.

Edited by msgin

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Not to worry, we can have two threads...

IMO this is a major development in the crash because it's coming from a reasonably well respected person. OK, everybody knows that he's in business to make a profit but to my understanding most people think he knows what he's on about so will pay far more attention than if it were you or I saying the same thing.

I see that you are in NSW. Not sure about the rest of the country but in Hobart we now have a very visible war between builders. One is engaging in heavy radio and print advertising complete with nice catchy jingle. And the key thing they emphasise is that they've cut the price of building so obviously they're not busy. Now another builder seems to be starting the print advertising too. Another recent change down here is the use of radio advertising to sell individual properties. Whilst radio advertising here is quite a lot cheaper than the major stations in Sydney or Melbourne, it's still a fairly expensive means of selling a house compared to the old board out the front and ad in the paper which suggests those older methods just aren't having much success. Oh, and I see the agents now have a nice standardised "price reduced" icon to put in their print advertising and are starting to use it quite a bit...

I was still somewhat doubtful about this crash as recently as September. What I have seen since then has left me in no doubt whatsoever. It IS happening. As for the predicted 10% fall next year, if anything that might turn out to be a rather conservative estimate.

Hi Smurf,

My wife and I separated about four years ago. Which was lousy timing financially. She got the marital house and I got the cash. This would have been at about the start of the house price boom.

If memory serves me correct, at that time, you could still buy properties in Tasmania, for less that $10,000. With an almost guaranteed tenant and a damn good yield. Looking back, it's hard to believe.

Personally, I believe that it was those relatively low 'buy-in' prices, that are now protecting the Tasmanian market. As the 'investors' have such a low financial burden placed on them, i.e. low mortgage or loan repayments.

The Tasmanian 'Investor' can afford to hold on to their investment, for far longer than the 'mainland' investor. The wanna-be property magnates, who put 'their' money, into this area, probably had a $300,000 minimum 'buy-in'.

The cheapest loan money they could get would be about 7.2%. An interest only loan would then cost about $22K per year and agents fees would eat 15% of their gross rental income.

In this area, this would probably leave the investor with financial shortfall of almost $1,500 per month on a depreciating 'asset'. This probably explains why prices are falling faster on the mainland.

I'm sure it will be Tasmania's turn soon.....if I wasn't so bloody cold down there, I'd be looking to buy there myself :)

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I've been following the Sydney market for about 12 months now and can find no anecdotal evidence of price reductions. I am a bear but I have been following mainly the Mcgrath website and have seen no evidence of any price reductions even though some properties I have been watching have been on there for 9 months+ without a single reduction. We are moving to Sydney and again the new home builders seem to be offerering no reductions or offers on their websites, although it is encouraging to read some of the information realting to Oz on this site.

This is a house I have been watching, it is overlooked by a neighbouring apartment block and appears to be of fairly cheap build quality and of course there is the extortionate price for a property that is situated nowhere near to water and not that close to the CBD

http://www.mcgrath.com.au/buying/index.cfm...00&sortby=price

And yet it has just been stuck there month upon month with the vendor refusing to drop the price.

It would be really good to keep an Oz thread going here.

Can't get the link to work properly but it is the Breakfast Point $1,725,000 property - Sorry.

Mate you need to look harder then. I was in Sydney 2 weeks ago looking in the price range you've specified. In particular I found 1 place in Pymble that was asking $2,350,000 six months ago, it sold last week for under $1,800,000.

This particular place, 79 Junction Rd, on with McGrath, was asking $1,850,000 and is now asking for over $1,600,000

http://www.mcgrath.com.au/buying/index.cfm...ce&displayed=10

Another place I know of on Pymble Ave Pymble (arguably Pymbles best street), was asking $1,900,000 six months ago, sold last week for $1,480,000.

The McGrath agent for the area told me personally that he handed 62 Hampden Ave Wahroonga back to the vendor because the asking price $2,100,000 would have no chance of being achieved. He said no more than $1,700,000. It is now on with this agent if you want to take a look:

http://www.burnsandburns.com.au/

Get yourself a membership with RPdata & you can find the stuff out about previous asking prices & sale prices etc.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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:o:o:o

There's something wrong with my eyes this morning, really didn't think I had drunk that much last night...

I call it like I see it. I have said consistently that I see a crash coming (or has it arrived?) in Australia and a weak, but stable market in the UK (well at least London, maybe not in the regions) based on higher yields and less political tweaking like that which has occured in Australia since just prior to the Olympic games in Sydney in 2000.

I also see the London Olympics 2012 as a reasonable focus for a boom and subsequent crash in London.

You lot would love RPdata:

http://www.rpdata.net.au/blank.html

You need a subscription to access it unfortunately, but it gives much more detail than is available on any other website that I know of.

Details include:

- Price paid by vendor & when

- When Vendor started selling, with which agent and at which asking price

- If the vendor went to auction, the highest bid & whether it sold or not

- Subsequent advertised prices (you can therfore see if the vendor is reducing the price & at what pace, also if they've changed agents)

- And of course the sale price if it's sold

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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I call it like I see it. I have said consistently that I see a crash coming (or has it arrived?) in Australia and a weak, but stable market in the UK (well at least London, maybe not in the regions) based on higher yields and less political tweaking like that which has occured in Australia since just prior to the Olympic games in Sydney in 2000.

I also see the London Olympics 2012 as a reasonable focus for a boom and subsequent crash in London.

You lot would love RPdata:

http://www.rpdata.net.au/blank.html

You need a subscription to access it unfortunately, but it gives much more detail than is available on any other website that I know of.

Details include:

- Price paid by vendor & when

- When Vendor started selling, with which agent and at which asking price

- If the vendor went to auction, the highest bid & whether it sold or not

- Subsequent advertised prices (you can therfore see if the vendor is reducing the price & at what pace, also if they've changed agents)

- And of course the sale price if it's sold

Thanks TTRTR, I am trying to view this all from the U.K, the RP data website is exactly what I am looking for.

It is all very encouraging news.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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