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Land Registry Quaterley Report Out Soon

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Apologies if someone has posted this before.............

I have just been trawling through the last 4 quarters of the LR reports, and notice the following stats:

July - September 2004: Average of All = 187,971

October - December 2004: Average of All = 182,920

January - March 2005: Average of All = 183,486

April - June 2005: Average of All = 184,924

The next quarters' YOY comparison will be against 'July - September 2004' value of 187,971. This will mean that house prices will have to have increased by 1.65% just to remain at 0% for the year!!

Looking at the last 3 quaterley trends, this is not looking likely.

If the LR figures show HPI as negative YOY for the next report, this could explain some of the bearishness of the Halifax, RM, etc - not wanting to appear out of touch with the current market!!

Well, we will find out next week.

If it shows yoy negative, then the cat will be out of the bag.

CF

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Exactley what I was thinking. In my home town Southampton, hpi stopped dead on the last few days of the 2st quarter 2004. That means the YOY decrease is all concentrated in the LR figures to come out shortly. We will see what the media will spin around them.

Edited by deano

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AND these are Actual prices achieved not "asking" prices or mortgage approvals.

LR are actual prices achieved!

Edited by deano

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LR are actual prices achieved!

Does anyone know what value is recorded with the LR in the case of the sale of a new build that comes with a "cash back" offer? Is it the price before or after the cash back? If before, does this not skew the figures ???

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As apollo mentioned , theres a definate lag on LR figs, will still be v.interesting. When was the last rate cut (was it too recent to show up in the forthcoming LR figures)?

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The next quarters' YOY comparison will be against 'July - September 2004' value of 187,971. This will mean that house prices will have to have increased by 1.65% just to remain at 0% for the year!!

Looking at the last 3 quaterley trends, this is not looking likely.

No, it's quite likely to show strong growth, because it's not mix-adjusted. Anecdotally, the housing market is moving better in the south than the north at present, which would lead to an increase in the Land Registry's average even if house prices overall had stayed the same or even dropped a bit.

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Does anyone know what value is recorded with the LR in the case of the sale of a new build that comes with a "cash back" offer? Is it the price before or after the cash back? If before, does this not skew the figures ???

pretty sure its the sale price - before the cash back which is done as a gift. That is why the builders have been doing it.

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No, it's quite likely to show strong growth, because it's not mix-adjusted. Anecdotally, the housing market is moving better in the south than the north at present, which would lead to an increase in the Land Registry's average even if house prices overall had stayed the same or even dropped a bit.

Just as interesting will be the volumes, some 40-50% down YoY in some areas last quarter showing, might have a small increase the quarter shown this time given the summer etc. <_<

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Apologies if someone has posted this before.............

I have just been trawling through the last 4 quarters of the LR reports, and notice the following stats:

July - September 2004: Average of All = 187,971

October - December 2004: Average of All = 182,920

January - March 2005: Average of All = 183,486

April - June 2005: Average of All = 184,924

The next quarters' YOY comparison will be against 'July - September 2004' value of 187,971. This will mean that house prices will have to have increased by 1.65% just to remain at 0% for the year!!

Looking at the last 3 quaterley trends, this is not looking likely.

If the LR figures show HPI as negative YOY for the next report, this could explain some of the bearishness of the Halifax, RM, etc - not wanting to appear out of touch with the current market!!

Well, we will find out next week.

If it shows yoy negative, then the cat will be out of the bag.

CF

Now do you believe Dec last year was your best chance to get a bargain LL?

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Now do you believe Dec last year was your best chance to get a bargain LL?

I do not believe there is any such thing as a bargain in the housing market right now. I am not even bothering to register with Estate Agents because there is simply no point.

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Yeah, I have been waiting patiently for the results.

Appollo, Halifax said prices rose in September (quite sharply), which is included in the stats!

I shall update my spreadsheets and post them on here for you all!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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