Halifax

[Spirit]

Halifax PLC

04 November 2005

Halifax House Price Index

National Index October 2005

All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100)

Index (seasonally adjusted) 544.4 Monthly Change 0.0% Annual Change 3.9%

Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) £168,210

http://www.companyannouncements.net/cgi-bi...800056306T.html

[erd]

Halifax PLC

04 November 2005

Halifax House Price Index

National Index October 2005

All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100)

Index (seasonally adjusted) 544.4 Monthly Change 0.0% Annual Change 3.9%

Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) £168,210

http://www.companyannouncements.net/cgi-bi...800056306T.html

From the beeb: Pace of house price rises quicken

House price inflation rose in October, for the third month in a row, according to the latest survey from the Halifax.

Prices were unchanged between September and October, but compared with a year ago they have now risen by 3.9%.

In September, the annual rate of house price inflation stood at 3%.

Only a brief mention that prices were level between this month and last, rest of the article states that prices rises are increasing.

[Economic Sensation]

I hate to say it guys but it may be getting to the stage to take the bear hat off and be prepared for the realisation that we have seen the bottom. It may be a bounce but looks to broad based at the moment with all surveys and indicators pointing to a bottom in the recent slip in the housing market.

[FrozenOut]

I hate to say it guys but it may be getting to the stage to take the bear hat off and be prepared for the realisation that we have seen the bottom. It may be a bounce but looks to broad based at the moment with all surveys and indicators pointing to a bottom in the recent slip in the housing market.

I'd rather wait for ODPM figures before forming an ill thought out opinion like yours.

[Bear Goggles]

I hate to say it guys but it may be getting to the stage to take the bear hat off and be prepared for the realisation that we have seen the bottom. It may be a bounce but looks to broad based at the moment with all surveys and indicators pointing to a bottom in the recent slip in the housing market.

You mean the kind of bottom that comes at the top?

It still looks more like a top to me. (but what do I know?)

[AteMoose]

All Houses (All Buyers), Non Seasonally Adjusted - Monthly Data

[Golden Shower]

I hate to say it guys but it may be getting to the stage to take the bear hat off and be prepared for the realisation that we have seen the bottom. It may be a bounce but looks to broad based at the moment with all surveys and indicators pointing to a bottom in the recent slip in the housing market.

I don't think we are entering a boom, but IMO the market seems to be stabalising. I suspect the chance of big nominal falls are decreasing somewhat. Loan approvals up and all the stats (apart from Hometrack) point to some sort of stability.

I think if you don't start to see consistent falls by next summer, the bear argument may have lost a lot of its drive.

[Economic Sensation]

I'd rather wait for ODPM figures before forming an ill thought out opinion like yours.

ooooffff, a below the belt blow. Time of the month?

When all the evidence starts to point one way you don't trade against the trend. No need to be rude just because i have a different view point to you.

[bandylegs]

I hate to say it guys but it may be getting to the stage to take the bear hat off and be prepared for the realisation that we have seen the bottom. It may be a bounce but looks to broad based at the moment with all surveys and indicators pointing to a bottom in the recent slip in the housing market.

LOL.

Well that's it, I'll never be able to afford that 1 bed smack den now it's going up in price again. It will probally sell for half a million pounds next.

[FrozenOut]

Lets see what happens once that .25% cut is reversed - in my opinion it will have a worse effect on the market then it would have if they had left it them where they were.

Nothing worse to shake the confidence then rates up and down every few months, lets face it if the ECB and FED continue to keep a lid on inflation the next move is up - regardless of our high street and housing market.

[undecided]

All Houses (All Buyers), Non Seasonally Adjusted - Monthly Data

Well, If oyu look at that graph and draw an average line through it, it seems that we're now pretty much right on it, so it would seem that the long term trend is followed.

[karhu]

Lets see what happens once that .25% cut is reversed - in my opinion it will have a worse effect on the market then it would have if they had left it them where they were.

Nothing worse to shake the confidence then rates up and down every few months, lets face it if the ECB and FED continue to keep a lid on inflation the next move is up - regardless of our high street and housing market.

EXACTLY. Rates are historically low, we HAVE to remember that.

[Leodhasach]

I hate to say it guys but it may be getting to the stage to take the bear hat off and be prepared for the realisation that we have seen the bottom. It may be a bounce but looks to broad based at the moment with all surveys and indicators pointing to a bottom in the recent slip in the housing market.

So what's the theory ES? Why has it bottomed - what has improved the condition of the housing market in the last 6 months? The only significant change has been a .25% IR cut...about £20 a month off the average mortgage. Apart from that, unemployment has nudged higher, inflation has climbed and people are generally more worried about their finances (as evidenced by people paying back credit card debt). So why has the market stabilised (if it has! - another interpretation of todays figures is that it's slammed to a sudden halt this month after two significant rises!).

I was personally quite surprised to see 0% today.

[AteMoose]

Well, If oyu look at that graph and draw an average line through it, it seems that we're now pretty much right on it, so it would seem that the long term trend is followed.

The graph isnt inflation adjusted, the long term trend would be a line draw from before 1998/99, before things sky rocketted, you have copied the rest of the people in the population and assumed the long term trend was the boom we have seen in recent years! If we were on the long term trend line average house price would be about 120k. Please see the attached graph, im expecting prices to fall back down to the lower line at some point, as you can see we are currently bouncing against the ceiling and stuggling to get past it, we wont, and a soft landing as 'seen' in the last crash would take 20-25 years.....

Finally this isnt a 0% rise, prices have fallen slightly, less than 1% mind you, The signals from the market are clear...

Edited November 4, 2005 by moosetea

[undecided]

So what's the theory ES? Why has it bottomed - what has improved the condition of the housing market in the last 6 months? The only significant change has been a .25% IR cut...about £20 a month off the average mortgage. Apart from that, unemployment has nudged higher, inflation has climbed and people are generally more worried about their finances (as evidenced by people paying back credit card debt). So why has the market stabilised (if it has! - another interpretation of todays figures is that it's slammed to a sudden halt this month after two significant rises!).

I was personally quite surprised to see 0% today.

Well, it went from a YOY of 15% to one of 3-4%. Therefore, prices have actually dropped by around 10% during 2004 and 2005 and let's be honest, that's what we are seeing in the real life, prices have dropped. My house has lost about 10% in the last year but prices are not moving down anymore. This is the adjustment we have seen. Prices have come back down but are now stabilising according to all this. It could well stay there now.

[karhu]

So what's the theory ES? Why has it bottomed - what has improved the condition of the housing market in the last 6 months? The only significant change has been a .25% IR cut...about £20 a month off the average mortgage. Apart from that, unemployment has nudged higher, inflation has climbed and people are generally more worried about their finances (as evidenced by people paying back credit card debt). So why has the market stabilised (if it has! - another interpretation of todays figures is that it's slammed to a sudden halt this month after two significant rises!).

I was personally quite surprised to see 0% today.

If you notice both Halifax and Nationwide pointed out that house prices are not going to rise significantly. That is an admission that we are at some type of affordability top, and so house prices are destined to FALL in REAL TERMS.

I personally believe that they have noticed a huge drop of in transaction volumes (leading to their admission), which suggests that the market in hanging over a precipice and because we are at an affordability top is more likely to go down than up. The stagnation is not really a solution that can exist in the long term, only in the short.

[soldup]

I'm in retail. All I'll say is just wait to the new year, that is when I feel we'll start seeing real month on month falls again. In my local town two independent shops went to the wall this week. This Christmas will be the worst in retail since 1990/91

It's the calm before the storm kids

[New Bear]

The signals from the market are ambiguous. For October Nationwide says a 1.3% rise but the Halifax says o%. You could interpret this as stabilization - ie future prices will form a plateau. Or you could say that this is the turning point before a declining trend. I still go for the latter because of the pricing fundamentals (such as borrowing to income ratios, rising repossession rates, the over-supply of properties for sale, etc) suggest that. The one thing that seems to be now accepted by almost everybody is that prices will not rise significantly. For me that means there is no hurry to buy and nothing to be lost in waiting to see what happens.

[karhu]

For me that means there is no hurry to buy and nothing to be lost in waiting to see what happens.

Good point. I think that many feel that way and it's a good position to be in.

This is a great day for people who believe in the possibility of a HPC. Only a few more months before we start to see sustained falls. Certainly not a time to throw the towel in and buy. I'm feeling more bearish every day and karhu is the Finnish for a bear!

Edited November 4, 2005 by karhu

[r thritis]

I read this as good news. The upward turn that Halifax has reported in the last 2 months has now returned to zero. The yoy figure has increased due to the negative from October 2004 dropping out of the annual figure. It's grossly misleading for the BBC to sumarise this as "Pace of house price rise quickens".

[karhu]

It's grossly misleading for the BBC to sumarise this as "Pace of house price rise quickens".

BBC

[Guest consa]

HPI WARNING

We have to understand whats going on here and step back from the hype, these figures are still weighted towards the high end sales which means any recent buying activity is NOT mainly FTB's.

This is a momentus occasion where the halifax are struggling to maintain HPI even with the northern bias, this means that even with Scotland & NI HPI is 0%, how much is it just for England?

This is most definately the calm before the storm as mentioned, I will be looking for LR figures to support the flat line with the recent buying surge - this will indicate the beginning of the downward trend for the VI's, when the recent buys enter the figure in a couple of months this will reflect the NEW negotiated price that houses have sold for and simultaneously drag HPI down.

I am glad about seeing this activity and look forward to seeing the reflection in the figures as and when, when the reflection starts to hit the figures people will realise they have been duped and they will panic.

Now is not the time to throw in the towel, now is the time to fasten seatbelts.

[Boom'n'Bust]

Heres the proper issued Halifax report:

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/Ho...ndexOct2005.pdf

Edited November 4, 2005 by Boom'n'Bust

[AteMoose]

Last Graph using the same NSA dataset... % YOY...

[karhu]

From the Halifax report:

and a boost to household sentiment regarding the future direction of interest rates following August's base rate cut are all supporting housing demand.

I think that sentiment has changed recently! Oh dearm that's the only positive spin they could put on it

This year's slowdown in the pace of UK economic growth and the ongoing historically high level of house prices relative to average earnings are, however, expected to curb the recent improvement in housing demand and prevent a marked pick-up in prices.

This sounds bearish to me, almost an admission that prices are about to fall.

Get ready for a tightening of credit.

Transaction numbers have increased, but that has net led to increases of price. Looks like we're at the start of a trend reversal. Going down?

Edited November 4, 2005 by karhu