nicko75 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Speculative shout for views on where the market is going here... I have lived here since 1997 and been continually behind the curve on property prices (although in hindsight should have obviously bought somewhere when i started out here). Anyway, no matter. Been living in Kingston / Surbiton (renting in various places) for 6 years and love the area. Married last summer and now with baby on the way it feels like it's time to bite the bullet. I'm 37 in December, have a good salary and have worked for one of Britain's biggest companies for over 10 years. Ideally we would love to stay in the area and have nominally decided that - SURELY - £500,000 is enough to buy a decent family home (ok, 3 bedrooms) in a nice part of town... but then i see this... http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/18464186?search_identifier=5e879b9008d18d6c222b6a7c179ffdf0 £700,000?? And this is in Tolworth FFS... I know there have been other similar posts about the insanity of a 'bog standard' terraced family home in Clapham etc now costing around the £1m mark. I just cannot see how salaries can get anywhere near supporting the market at these levels - there can only be so many oligarchs and arms dealers out there - or am I missing something....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1981 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 You will interested in reading the Surrey thread under the south east section of this website. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=178774&st=30 I agree with everything you say, house prices in Kingston, surrounding areas and Wimbledon etc. are unexplainably high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuffy Chuffnell Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/18464186?search_identifier=5e879b9008d18d6c222b6a7c179ffdf0 £700,000?? Meanwhile in Shropshire... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23973360.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mk1mini Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Speculative shout for views on where the market is going here... I have lived here since 1997 and been continually behind the curve on property prices (although in hindsight should have obviously bought somewhere when i started out here). Anyway, no matter. Been living in Kingston / Surbiton (renting in various places) for 6 years and love the area. Married last summer and now with baby on the way it feels like it's time to bite the bullet. I'm 37 in December, have a good salary and have worked for one of Britain's biggest companies for over 10 years. Ideally we would love to stay in the area and have nominally decided that - SURELY - £500,000 is enough to buy a decent family home (ok, 3 bedrooms) in a nice part of town... but then i see this... http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/18464186?search_identifier=5e879b9008d18d6c222b6a7c179ffdf0 £700,000?? And this is in Tolworth FFS... I know there have been other similar posts about the insanity of a 'bog standard' terraced family home in Clapham etc now costing around the £1m mark. I just cannot see how salaries can get anywhere near supporting the market at these levels - there can only be so many oligarchs and arms dealers out there - or am I missing something....? You will always get kite flyers. I had a quick look on rightmove and for less than £500k there are plenty of 3 bedroom houses in the KT5 area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numpty Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The average salary in the city for a male is around £100k. Therefore if you take a pair of DINKYS (Double income no kids) one of them is on say £90k and the other is on £60k then with £150k pa plus bonuses this is not unrealistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I did some analysis of repeat sales in various postcode areas a few months ago. This covered all repeat sales in a three-month period in 2012. The previous date when a property sold was anywhere between Jan 1997 to just a few weeks before the resale. I then calculated various metrics on both nominal and inflation-adjusted performance. Guess which postcode area topped the list of the ones I looked at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichB Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Speculative shout for views on where the market is going here... I have lived here since 1997 and been continually behind the curve on property prices (although in hindsight should have obviously bought somewhere when i started out here). Anyway, no matter. Been living in Kingston / Surbiton (renting in various places) for 6 years and love the area. Married last summer and now with baby on the way it feels like it's time to bite the bullet. I'm 37 in December, have a good salary and have worked for one of Britain's biggest companies for over 10 years. Ideally we would love to stay in the area and have nominally decided that - SURELY - £500,000 is enough to buy a decent family home (ok, 3 bedrooms) in a nice part of town... but then i see this... http://www.zoopla.co...22b6a7c179ffdf0 £700,000?? And this is in Tolworth FFS... I know there have been other similar posts about the insanity of a 'bog standard' terraced family home in Clapham etc now costing around the £1m mark. I just cannot see how salaries can get anywhere near supporting the market at these levels - there can only be so many oligarchs and arms dealers out there - or am I missing something....? Similar position. Bottled it, and moved out to Staines. A lot cheaper, much more relaxed, and in many ways just more pleasant. Strongly recommend a looksee - drive up through shepperton and laleham - not down the main road through sunbury though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko75 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 The average salary in the city for a male is around £100k. Therefore if you take a pair of DINKYS (Double income no kids) one of them is on say £90k and the other is on £60k then with £150k pa plus bonuses this is not unrealistic. But when push comes to shove and children are in the offering, you have to discount your wife's salary to nothing [or I do anyway - she earns about £40k] (potential illness & complications / wanting to spend time bonding with children / opportunity cost of childcare)...... so you are down to 1 salary - and happy to take your base example of £100k plus bonuses etc. To buy said £700,000 house would therefore require a deposit of £140,000 and a mortgage payment of around £3,000 a month which is laughable. I do realise that the property example I gave is one of the extremes..... but, yes, if a couple want to work themselves both into the ground, never find the time to have and bring up children, never go on holiday, never save anything for a rainy day or retirement - then yes... i suppose those sort of places are affordable... There are plenty of sub 500k places but they are normally a long long way from any public transport (esp trains). Sadly, I have found it doesn't get much better if you go further out - anywhere in Guildord, Dorking, Walton, Weybridge etc near the station command top end prices also. I was hoping that a lot of these places were not actually selling but noticed this morning that a 4 bed house in Surbiton went for £1.1m a few weeks ago so there goes that theory!... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko75 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 I did some analysis of repeat sales in various postcode areas a few months ago. This covered all repeat sales in a three-month period in 2012. The previous date when a property sold was anywhere between Jan 1997 to just a few weeks before the resale. I then calculated various metrics on both nominal and inflation-adjusted performance. Guess which postcode area topped the list of the ones I looked at. Thanks for your analysis FreeTrader - can i ask a dumb question? What do we mean by repeat sales? And what is the significance of general sales..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worried1 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Speculative shout for views on where the market is going here... I have lived here since 1997 and been continually behind the curve on property prices (although in hindsight should have obviously bought somewhere when i started out here). Anyway, no matter. Been living in Kingston / Surbiton (renting in various places) for 6 years and love the area. Married last summer and now with baby on the way it feels like it's time to bite the bullet. I'm 37 in December, have a good salary and have worked for one of Britain's biggest companies for over 10 years. Ideally we would love to stay in the area and have nominally decided that - SURELY - £500,000 is enough to buy a decent family home (ok, 3 bedrooms) in a nice part of town... but then i see this... http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/18464186?search_identifier=5e879b9008d18d6c222b6a7c179ffdf0 £700,000?? And this is in Tolworth FFS... I know there have been other similar posts about the insanity of a 'bog standard' terraced family home in Clapham etc now costing around the £1m mark. I just cannot see how salaries can get anywhere near supporting the market at these levels - there can only be so many oligarchs and arms dealers out there - or am I missing something....? I am in a similar position in exactly the same area and I actually stumbled across that house last week. I agree it is a crazy price as it is not even in a particularly nice part of the area. £500k should still get you something in this type of road or in most parts of Berrylands, but the nice areas like the 'river roads' in Surbiton and the equivalent areas in Kingston have been insane for quite some time now. In those roads, not only does £500k get you no more than a Victorian 2up/2down terrace, but you also have to enter into massive competition to actually secure one at this price. The one thing that I do notice is that the market seems to get a lot less competitive over £500k. Houses that are (relatively) well priced will still sell quickly in that range, but ones like your example will hang around for ages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This ones under £400k and very convenient for the A3. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/26802871?search_identifier=c5a982bf73c14696160b564ba331262f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worried1 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 There are plenty of sub 500k places but they are normally a long long way from any public transport (esp trains). Sadly, I have found it doesn't get much better if you go further out - anywhere in Guildord, Dorking, Walton, Weybridge etc near the station command top end prices also. This is the main problem - other areas often seem cheaper, but when you get to know them and the parts you would be happy living in, that price difference seems to decline quite quickly. Walton appears much cheaper than Surbiton, but the nice areas are definitely within a few % of Surbiton prices. The smaller houses in central Weybridge actually used to be quite cheap (presumably because you'd feel like the poor relation to all of the people living in the surrounding mega-mansions!), but you now get prices like the example below. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/26330322?search_identifier=5ef8e1ad95040ac5ba4ba93c7b6cf10f This is actually more than the equivalent house would sell for in the riverside part of Surbiton/Kingston. I do think that the prices in Guildford and particularly Dorking are a bit better, but not that much when you take into account the extra time and cost of the commute from there if either or both of you work in London. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko75 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 I am in a similar position in exactly the same area and I actually stumbled across that house last week. I agree it is a crazy price as it is not even in a particularly nice part of the area. £500k should still get you something in this type of road or in most parts of Berrylands, but the nice areas like the 'river roads' in Surbiton and the equivalent areas in Kingston have been insane for quite some time now. In those roads, not only does £500k get you no more than a Victorian 2up/2down terrace, but you also have to enter into massive competition to actually secure one at this price. The one thing that I do notice is that the market seems to get a lot less competitive over £500k. Houses that are (relatively) well priced will still sell quickly in that range, but ones like your example will hang around for ages. Interesting to hear you are in the same boat - you have hit on the problem - there is a lot of property about but EVERYBODY wants to live in the same quarter mile of Surbiton... We currently live on St Phillips Road in a period flat so we are "in the zone" - the thought of moving to Berrylands is depressing and Tolworth is just nasty, full stop. Have resigned myself to the fact that we will not compete for a good river road property, shoudl one come on - I am more hopeful that something on the edge of Kingston or maybe the other side of Surbiton station (not as far as Tolworth) could yet be achievable. It's been referenced elsewhere but Kingston / Surbiton has almost certainly been hit by a bow-wave of people coming from Clapham / Fulham / Wimbledon - previously the domain of the high earning City worker, now pushed out to Zone 6. We really enjoy our life here - I really don't want to leave London - but maybe we will have to admit defeat, time will tell... Glad we agree on the lunacy of asking £700k for that house - location wise, it's rubbish and I reckon £650k would get a better or similar hourse with less than 5 minutes walk to Surbiton High Street, station and the river.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worried1 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This ones under £400k and very convenient for the A3. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/26802871?search_identifier=c5a982bf73c14696160b564ba331262f Yep, worst location ever. You live on a 6 lane motorway, but still have to queue at the next junction to actually get onto it. The nearest station is a very unpleasant 15 minute walk along said motorway and via an underpass to a station which provides TWO trains an hour into London which take 35 minutes to get there! Even that is good compared to the facilities and the general feel of the area. This house would be worth twice as much in central Surbiton and that differential is fair. The difference is that this place should be £250k and the Surbiton equivalent £500k, not almost twice as much as they seem to be now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosh Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yep, worst location ever. You live on a 6 lane motorway, but still have to queue at the next junction to actually get onto it. The nearest station is a very unpleasant 15 minute walk along said motorway and via an underpass to a station which provides TWO trains an hour into London which take 35 minutes to get there! Even that is good compared to the facilities and the general feel of the area. This house would be worth twice as much in central Surbiton and that differential is fair. The difference is that this place should be £250k and the Surbiton equivalent £500k, not almost twice as much as they seem to be now! +1 I know the area well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worried1 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Interesting to hear you are in the same boat - you have hit on the problem - there is a lot of property about but EVERYBODY wants to live in the same quarter mile of Surbiton... We currently live on St Phillips Road in a period flat so we are "in the zone" - the thought of moving to Berrylands is depressing and Tolworth is just nasty, full stop. Have resigned myself to the fact that we will not compete for a good river road property, shoudl one come on - I am more hopeful that something on the edge of Kingston or maybe the other side of Surbiton station (not as far as Tolworth) could yet be achievable. I have often thought the same thing - living in a good part of another areas must be better than living in a poor part of this one. I still think it is true, but have never quite managed to make the move yet! I love the area, I have lived here for years and can still see the attraction. It is always going to be an expensive place, but I don't think it was ever supposed to be quite THIS expensive. Sure, the exact area we are talking about is relatively lovely (despite quite a lot of inappropriate building over the years!), there is the river and a very fast station within a few paces, but look at the High Street! It has quite nice architecture, and the range of shops is definitely improving, but the betting shop/McDonalds/charity shop basis of it is not necessarily what you'd expect of somewhere you have got to pay £500k to buy a 900 sqft house! I must admit I quite like it as my worst nightmare is living somewhere sterile and homogenous like Esher, but you would have thought the general scruffiness would have put some people off! It's been referenced elsewhere but Kingston / Surbiton has almost certainly been hit by a bow-wave of people coming from Clapham / Fulham / Wimbledon - previously the domain of the high earning City worker, now pushed out to Zone 6. Yep, this is exactly what has happened. The Surbiton prices that seem high to us 'locals' are not too bad if you are coming out of one of those areas armed with £500k+ equity from a flat sale. Glad we agree on the lunacy of asking £700k for that house - location wise, it's rubbish and I reckon £650k would get a better or similar hourse with less than 5 minutes walk to Surbiton High Street, station and the river.... They stand no chance at that asking price. A lot of people seem to think that the area around there is the 'up and coming' part of Surbiton because it is still not too far away from the station and is quite well preserved as a Victorian area compared to lots of the rest of the town, but I think £500k is the limit even with this taken into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Thanks for your analysis FreeTrader - can i ask a dumb question? What do we mean by repeat sales? And what is the significance of general sales..? In the context above a repeat sale is one for which we have both a present and a previously recorded sale price. The Land Registry database holds past transaction prices for properties in England & Wales going back to the mid-1990s and we can therefore see how much vendors originally paid for certain properties when they are sold. For many houses we don't have this info - because it's a new build say, or perhaps it was bought before the Land Reg database was compiled. For example, that house you showed in the OP is number 24 Broomfield Road I believe. There is no previously recorded sale for this home, but the house next door (number 26) which looks very similar sold for £357,500 in April 2005. I'm not sure what you mean by "what is the significance of general sales", but if you're wondering what the relevance of the table is to this thread, I was just noting that you're in one of the hottest postcodes in the country for house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worried1 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Meanwhile in Shropshire... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23973360.html This is a good point as well. One of the things that would worry me about making a big investment in the London suburbs now is what happens in 10-15 years time when (presumably) home working will become more prevalent and people live where they actually want to rather than where is convenient to commute from 5 days a week. Don't get me wrong, I love where I live now, and I'd not be ready to move out to a rural area yet, but it would be nice to know I could afford to do it in the future if I wanted to. The premium for living here is far higher than it should be, and most of that is because the ease of the commute. I know that London property seems like a power house now, but part of me thinks that this could shrink and we will be left with: 1. uber-expensive prime areas 2. Good suburbs like Surbiton will be cheap compared to the countryside 3. Enclaves like the private estates of Esher and Weybridge that will remain expensive but not command the premium they do now 4. A lot of the rest of it will be like the areas in the north where councils are selling off houses for £1 each because no one wants them. OK, maybe a bit extreme, but I can certainly see that house in Shropshire at £800k in 10 years time, and the Surbiton/Tolworth house at £500k which will mean a lot of people wouldn't be able to afford to make that move when the time comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The average salary in the city for a male is around £100k. Source? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail the Tripod Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 But when push comes to shove and children are in the offering, you have to discount your wife's salary to nothing [or I do anyway - she earns about £40k] (potential illness & complications / wanting to spend time bonding with children / opportunity cost of childcare)...... so you are down to 1 salary - and happy to take your base example of £100k plus bonuses etc. To buy said £700,000 house would therefore require a deposit of £140,000 and a mortgage payment of around £3,000 a month which is laughable. I do realise that the property example I gave is one of the extremes..... but, yes, if a couple want to work themselves both into the ground, never find the time to have and bring up children, never go on holiday, never save anything for a rainy day or retirement - then yes... i suppose those sort of places are affordable... There are plenty of sub 500k places but they are normally a long long way from any public transport (esp trains). Sadly, I have found it doesn't get much better if you go further out - anywhere in Guildord, Dorking, Walton, Weybridge etc near the station command top end prices also. I was hoping that a lot of these places were not actually selling but noticed this morning that a 4 bed house in Surbiton went for £1.1m a few weeks ago so there goes that theory!... Really? Max 2 mins walk from West Byfleet station - £325,000 On the (admittedly infrequent) fast trains 1 stop to Surbiton, 2 stops to Waterloo and you always get a seat too. Some very good schools nearby too. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24848925.html Not saying £325k is a bargain, just pointing out that £500k is not a minimum for a London commutable family home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PricedOutNative Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The figures are skewed by the banksters, I know people in admin there on around £30->40, IT people in circa £50->£80, both groups get bonuses of around 10%. Source? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The average salary in the city for a male is around £100k. Therefore if you take a pair of DINKYS (Double income no kids) one of them is on say £90k and the other is on £60k then with £150k pa plus bonuses this is not unrealistic. There you go. Joint income mortgage and debt servitude to a bank instead of having a family is the new norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The average salary in the city for a male is around £100k. Therefore if you take a pair of DINKYS (Double income no kids) one of them is on say £90k and the other is on £60k then with £150k pa plus bonuses this is not unrealistic. That is not what the office cleaner and the kebab seller told me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko75 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Thanks all for feedback (including alternative property suggestions, its good to get an external view, my property searches have become a bit myopic)... ... another thing I have noticed is that both my current and previous Surbiton landlords have moved out of the property they subsequently let to me and now both live in houses on river roads themselves. (I lived a most enjoyable 4 years as a bachelor in Avante Court in Kingston inbetween!). Reckon there must be a few btl locals in those river road houses... I think the area is unique in that there is a really hotly contested square half-mile which ticks all the boxes - well maintained period properties, access to a superfast mainline service, great shopping nearby, river, good high street & sense of community - but you don't have to go very far to get to dull & uninspiring followed soon after by downright rotten. So there is a real spike in prices in the centre of Surbiton - I can't see the "ripple effect" ever moving too far down the Ewell Road to be honest. We went for a drive the other day to look at some alternatives - Worcester Park has some potential.. drove through South Merton, West Sutton & North Cheam (endless grey housing estates which looked like the end of the world) and then Cheam villiage (nice but doubtless expensive). Finally we got to Belmont (which i had never heard of until my mate bought a house there the other week) which was very nice but very quiet. We were certainly of the view that if we cannot live in one of the nicer areas then we would rather not live in London at all and will just move much further out - that is why I think they may always be some wild variations in prices accross London. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicko75 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 There you go. Joint income mortgage and debt servitude to a bank instead of having a family is the new norm. See my earlier response also - I agree. It is wrong to build your "base case" on two people working permanently on high salaries. Miserable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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