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The Sumo Japan Qe Thread

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Overnight we got the latest proof that there is nothing worse for an economy than to be run by a bunch of central planning academics who get "advice" from Paul Krugman. The reason: Japan's retail sales which crashed by 9.7% Y/Y, the biggest annual drop in history. To be sure, the biggest reason for the annual drop was the base effect with the surge in demand last March ahead of the April 2014 consumption tax hike, but the drop was bigger than what consensus had expected, as expectations were for a -7.3% drop. And confirming that things are getting worse on a sequential basis as well, was the 1.9% drop in sales in March compared to a 0.7% increase in February. In fact, as the chart belows show, on an indexed basis, the March retail sales print was one of the worst since last year's tax hike.

Edited by interestrateripoff

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Kyle Bass bets on full-blown Japan crisis - FT headline

Kyle Bass hopes he is wrong, and so may everyone else, as the danger predicted by the founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital is nothing less than a full blown financial crisis in the worlds third-largest economy, Japan.

Here's a quote from the beginning of the thread, almost 2 years ago, when the usual suspects were promoting their usual doom and gloom. Waiting for Japan to collapse is like waiting for Godot.

In answer to the assertions above, if the numbers say the prices are rising then I am willing to accept that is the truth, however I am feeling no squeeze on my living standards here and I haven't heard complaints from colleagues. I think the average middle class is doing ok.

The problem is probably for people working in a 7-11 or equivalent for JPY850 an hour. That said I am seeing a lot of adverts for staff (thats how I know the rate) so wages may need to go up. Having said that, most 7-11 and the like are chronically overstaffed (a queue longer than 3 people is rare) so they can probably survive without them.

I continue to believe that the transfer of wealth to the rich is on-going and sustainable over generational time frames.

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Hello Fafa.....

Maybe you can comment on my post No 978. Any shop price and food price rises in Japan?

Btw, there`s an interesting video on Money week with Tim Price who talks about the world economy and has good things to say about japan.

No kyle Bass him.

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Hello Fafa.....

Maybe you can comment on my post No 978. Any shop price and food price rises in Japan?

Btw, there`s an interesting video on Money week with Tim Price who talks about the world economy and has good things to say about japan.

No kyle Bass him.

Basically I am willing to believe there have been rises if the official stats say so, but haven't felt the pinch or really noticed myself. Bills look about the same as they always did. I think train fares went up a bit, thats the only one I noticed. Saving about the same each month.

Thanks for the video tip - will check it out.

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Minsky taught us that recovery can't happen until asset prices and current prices are brought back into balance. Current income has fallen sharply in the two years since QQE was introduced, so to the extent that Abenomics is making the Japanese poorer day by day it can be said to be working. :D

ABOOK-May-2015-Japan-Real-Income-SA-QQE.

Edited by zugzwang

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Abenomics Is 2 Years Old - Households Even Deeper In The Hole

20150508_abe.jpg

The trends in both Japanese income and spending moved downward not at the inception of the tax increase but at the very start of QQE itself. Science is the study of observation whereas monetary economics has become the science of avoiding them. If economists want to see recovery in that they should be honest about so redefining the term. BoJ is two years into QQE and the hole that has been dug for the Japanese people is enormous, so it will be extremely difficult at this point just to get back to even without ever accounting for lost opportunity for compounding and time. Maybe that doesn’t count as the typical, natural recession but it is nothing short of a man-made disaster.

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Japanese 86-year-old woman is arrested after she claimed her dead parents' pensions for 50 YEARS

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Mitsue Suzuki may have fraudulently claimed as much as 50million yen, the equivalent of £260,000, since the death of her parents in the 1960s. She was arrested in Ena, Gifu Prefecture.

And they just realised now!!!!

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-13/its-official-boj-has-broken-japanese-stock-market

As those who follow such things are no doubt aware, The Bank of Japan often says some very funny things about inflation expectations and monetary policy. Essentially, the bank is forced to constantly defend its QE program because as it turns out, monetizing the entirety of gross JGB issuance and amassing an equity portfolio worth just shy of $100 billion on the way to cornering the ETF market comes across as insanely irresponsible even in a world that is now defined by insanely irresponsible central banks.

Perhaps the best example of the BoJ’s absurd rhetoric came in late March when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the following about the bank’s 10 trillion yen equity portfolio:

  • KURODA: BOJ'S ETF PURCHASES AREN'T LARGE

As we noted at the time, either we don’t know what large means, or Kuroda is simply making things up as he goes along. Meanwhile, the BoJ continues to provide Nikkei plunge protection on an almost daily basis. Here’s what we said in March:

The world has now officially given up any pretensions that Japan’s elephantine QE program isn’t underwriting the rally in Japanese stocks. Not only is the Bank of Japan buying ETFs, they’re targeting their purchases to (literally) ensure that stocks can’t fall by stepping in when things look weak at the open. Unfortunately, Kuroda looks set to run up against the extremely inconvenient fact that while, in his lunacy, he can print a theoretically unlimited amount of money, the universe of purchasable ETFs is limited and so eventually, the BoJ will own the entire market.

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Japan's loss-making Sharp says banks to provide $1.7 billion bailout

TOKYO - Japan's loss-making Sharp Corp said it had secured a $1.7 billion (1 billion pound) bailout from banks, its second major rescue in three years, after its smartphone display business came under intense pricing pressure from Asian rivals.

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BOJ chief economist says Japan likely to shift to expansionary phase

TOKYO - Japan's economy is likely to shift to an expansionary phase this fiscal year due to improvements in domestic demand, exports and a windfall from last year's decline in oil prices, the Bank of Japan's chief economist said.

What 0.1%?

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Japan shares at 15-year high on data

Japanese shares close at a 15-year high after data showed the country's trade account fell into a deficit in April, but was still better than expected.

Full article Japan shares at 15-year high on data

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Abenomics Fail: Japanese Slack-Jawed At Oral Sex Price Deflation

Despite proclamations by Kuroda, Abe, and various other elected (and unelected) officials that the 'deflation mindset' is gone from Japan, it appears one segment of the population is keenly aware of the ongoing deflationary market for one staple item. Just as we warned was occurring in America, it appears the cost of blow-jobs has gone from just-plain-cheap to "well, why not?" As one intrepid reporter ventured into the Otsuka red-light district of Toshima Ward discovered, the fee for an oral session at a “pink salon” starts as low as 2,000 yen ($16!).

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-31/two-years-into-the-boj-s-bold-bet-here-s-what-s-happening

Countless words have been written on the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policies under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Just over two years since Kuroda began pumping record stimulus into the economy, here are seven charts on the results for Japan.

Japan's biggest companies are posting record profits and paying more dividends than ever, driving the share market higher.

-1x-1.jpg

The economy has expanded, but is still smaller than its peak in 1997. It's only slowly recovering from a recession last year after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government increased the sales tax.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-04/bojs-kuroda-believes-he-should-fly-says-bankers-should-think-happy-thoughts

In a world of central bankers gone Keynesian crazy, one man stands alone.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is running what is perhaps the greatest (or worst, depending on how one is predisposed to view centrally planned economies) monetary experiment in history.

True, Kuroda is monetizing the entirety of JGB gross issuance, stripping the market of liquidity and setting the stage for heightened volatility, (more) VaR shocks, and all manner of other central bank-induced aberrations in the process. But that’s par for the central banker course in today’s market.

As outlined extensively here, the BoJ has taken things a step further by providing plunge protection for the Nikkei, stepping in to support stocks whenever sentiment looks weak and accumulating an equity portfolio somewhere on the order of $95 billion in the process.

With each passing soundbite, it becomes increasingly apparent that Kuroda is detached from reality in terms of recognizing that the BoJ’s policies (and Abenomics more generally) have failed to stoke inflation expectations even as they have exacerbated the divide between rich and poor and embedded an as yet unknowable amount of risk into the financial system in the process.

Against this backdrop, the only thing keeping the dream alive is blind faith in the omnipotence of central bankers.

Consider that point, and then consider the following, excerpted from Kuroda’s opening remarks at the 2015 BOJ-IMES Conference:

The issues I have raised so far are all complex, and there are no quick, definitive solutions for them. Nevertheless, I strongly believe that, at this one-and-a-half day conference, we will address the issues we currently face and find our way forward through lively discussions. I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, "the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it." Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction. Indeed, each time central banks have been confronted with a wide range of problems, they have overcome the problems by conceiving new solutions.

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Japan economy returning to 'growth orbit' - PM's spokesman

GARMISCH-PARTENKIRCHEN, Germany - Japan's economy is returning to a "growth orbit", a spokesman for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on the sidelines of a summit of Group of Seven (G7) leaders on Sunday.

It seems we have a new bu11sh1t term "growth orbit"!

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Yes well, I`ve worked out what growth orbit means.

Growth means .....well the economy is growing....getting bigger innit.

Orbit means that it`s going round in circles so we never see any lasting improvement.

I hope that helps.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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