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The Sumo Japan Qe Thread

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Output down, retail sales down, real wages down...

Output (JNIPMOM) fell 0.6 percent in November from a month earlier, the trade ministry said today, against a median estimate of a 0.8 percent increase in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Retail sales slid 0.3 percent, while consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier. Real wages fell the most since 2009.

With little sign of a rebound in domestic demand, the world’s third-largest economy may rely on exports to avert a third straight quarterly contraction in the final three months of the year. Today’s reports add pressure on Abe, whose government tomorrow will unveil a stimulus package, and who pledged growth-inducing structural changes after winning re-election this month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/japan-s-inflation-slows-for-fourth-month-in-challenge-to-kuroda.html

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JGB 2yr yield goes negative yet housing starts fall by 14% yoy.

For the first time since records were collected in 1955, Japan's population is drawing down its savings and the savings rate, calculated as savings divided by disposable income plus pension payments, was negative 1.3%.

It's a dramatic change from when the Japanese saved nearly a quarter of their income (23.1%) when the savings rate peaked in 1975.

more at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30603313

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/25/markets-japan-jgb-idUST9N0MW05I20141225

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My wife has just come back from Japan yesterday.

She says that her friend is now unable to pay her mortgage and so is just paying a token amount of £5 a month. Apparently millions are in the same situation (she works for local government)

It seems that the banks are more than happy with this situation, I imagine it`s all backed by the Japanese government.

The future for the UK is already writ?

Sorry to hear about your wife's friend's difficulty. Is her friend single? Assuming she is roughly your age I am surprised that working for the local government she cannot service the debt given the wages they offer and lifetime employment etc.

Also given that Japan does not have a high NPL rate

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS

I would be surprised if there are a large number of people in a similar situation but not surprised by the bank's leniency.

Hope your wife enjoyed herself, it is the worst time of year to come.

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For the first time since records were collected in 1955, Japan's population is drawing down its savings and the savings rate, calculated as savings divided by disposable income plus pension payments, was negative 1.3%.

It's a dramatic change from when the Japanese saved nearly a quarter of their income (23.1%) when the savings rate peaked in 1975.

more at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30603313

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/25/markets-japan-jgb-idUST9N0MW05I20141225

The dropping savings rate is good news but will need to be matched by increasing real wages PDQ.

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Hello Fafa...

Of course, many people find out that they can pay a token amount of their mortgage only by chance (from the nice lady at the government office for example), many would prefer to borrow from parents or commit suicide.

Thank god that people have an alternative these days,

MY WIFE? She`s still spending her days at the NHS.

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Hello Fafa...

Of course, many people find out that they can pay a token amount of their mortgage only by chance (from the nice lady at the government office for example), many would prefer to borrow from parents or commit suicide.

Thank god that people have an alternative these days,

MY WIFE? She`s still spending her days at the NHS.

Oh I see, your wife's friend got advice at the local government office. I thought you were saying she worked for the local government. Anyway good luck to her. Japan (and Asia in general) can be a harsh place if you slip through the gaps. I often wonder how much some of the libertarians on this forum would enjoy the experience. Presumably they think it wouldn't happen to them.

Perhaps there was a misunderstanding, all I meant to say was I hope your wife enjoyed the holiday despite the miserable Japanese winter and lack of central heating. I hate the winters out here.

Anyway, hope you are both doing well. Hope not too early to wish you both all the best for the New Year!

Edited by FaFa!

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Perhaps there was a misunderstanding, all I meant to say was I hope your wife enjoyed the holiday despite the miserable Japanese winter and lack of central heating. I hate the winters out here.

It's not the winter, unless you are in Hokkaido and not really the lack of central heating. Rather, it is the lack of decent insulation on houses that makes Japanese winters so miserable. Much as I love all the snow up there, I will not visit in winter.

And it stays damn cold until March or April.

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Why do those figures correlate?

is it because demand has fallen way below what the bankers can produce in terms of loans?...I mean, that IS their product isnt it?..LOANS....and rates fall as they compete with more and more "stimulus", but less and less people buying their products?

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is it because demand has fallen way below what the bankers can produce in terms of loans?...I mean, that IS their product isnt it?..LOANS....and rates fall as they compete with more and more "stimulus", but less and less people buying their products?

The ones that would take it would not pay or repay it at any price.....the ones that can pay and would repay don't want it at any price.

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Fafa.................!!

No I`m not doing well bloody well...I`m living on £70 a week, fortunately I`ve got plenty of money salted away through.

In japan we lived in a rented house with walls that were 4 or 5 cm thick with glass that was 2mm thick! (c1971)

In the UK we live in a bungalow with walls that are 30 cm thick at least and they (the council) want to add external insulation.

I wont compare the UK summer to the Japanese one...

Hope you`re wife is doing well and you too of course.

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In japan we lived in a rented house with walls that were 4 or 5 cm thick with glass that was 2mm thick! (c1971)

I'm sure it wouldn't be the case but I just have visions of swinging a sledge hammer at the wall and virtually demolising it in one swing and breaking in.

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Yes, walls were made of what appeared to be wood and paper mix with something like sand paper on the inside. There are many of these early seventies houses still standing. Concrete is the answer but once it`s built it`s built......but then what do you do with half empty apartments?

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Exclusive - Japan's regional banks face stress test for ultra-low rates

TOKYO - Japan's financial regulator is running stress tests to see if too much cash in the system is stifling smaller banks' ability to earn, unlike regulatory tests elsewhere that have been designed to see whether lenders had enough capital to cope with financial shocks.

So after over 20 years of uber low interest rates in Japan they have just found out the smaller banks may not be able to make money???

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Japan Is Writing History As A Prime Boom And Bust Case

20141230_boombust.jpg

The fate of countries like Japan is really in the hands of central bankers. However, central planners are not able to manipulate markets infinitely. At a certain point, something has to give. That is when the markets will give up and disbelief will replace trust. In such a bust scenario, people flee down the Golden Pyramid of asset classes to their safe haven, being gold.

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I'm sure it wouldn't be the case but I just have visions of swinging a sledge hammer at the wall and virtually demolising it in one swing and breaking in.

To paraphrase Raymond Chandler (via Bruce Sterling): When in doubt, have a man come through a wall with a sword in his hand.

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The Death Of A Nation: Japanese Births Drop To Lowest Ever, Deaths Hit All Time High

old%20japanese.jpg

Supporters and opponents of Abenomics may debate the metaphorical death of Japanese society as a result of the terminal hyper-Keynesian, hyper-monetarist policies implemented by Abe and Kuroda for the past 2 years until they are blue in the face, but when it comes to the literal death of Japan, there is no debate: as the FT succinctly puts it "deaths outnumbered births in Japan last year by the widest margin on record, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing the government as it tries to ensure a dwindling pool of workers can support growing ranks of pensioners."

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Abenomics boost for Japan property shrinks back to Tokyo

OSAKA, Japan - An economic rebound and loose money policy under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe briefly halted a long slide in Japan's commercial property market, but the benefits of "Abenomics" appear increasingly limited to Tokyo, leaving a moribund hinterland.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/07/uk-japan-uk-arms-exclusive-idUKKBN0KG0WE20150107

Japan is asking Britain to buy its P-1 submarine-hunting jet in a deal that could top $1 billion (660 million pounds), a major step in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to arms exports after decades of self-imposed restrictions, people with knowledge of the proposal said.

Britain has not formally decided it will buy new maritime patrol planes, having cancelled an order for nine built by BAE Systems (BAES.L) in 2010 due to delays and cost over-runs, and the P-1, made by Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.T), would face stiff competition from Boeing's (BA.N) P-8 Poseidon, the three sources told Reuters.

Japanese officials raised the issue of London buying the P-1 to replace the British-made Hawker Siddeley Nimrod, which was retired in 2011, when they met their UK counterparts to discuss defence-equipment cooperation at the Farnborough Air Show near London in July, the sources said.

UK to help boost Japanese exports?

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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