Don't Know About Anyone Else, But Many Houses Just Not Selling!

[eric pebble]

I don't know about anyone else, but many houses just NOT selling! my fortnightly drives accross from the SW of England to SE - and drive up to Scotland 5 days ago - incredible number of "For Sale" signs that have been there for what seems like forever - and loads and loads of friends, aquaintances and their friends etc. - all tell me of countless cases where they just CANNOT sell their properties - and don't get any kind of meaningful response unless they SLASH their prices big time!! We're talking 20-25% (and sometimes as much as 30%) reductions in prices here!!

AND - varios people I know in the "trade" - EA's, "developers" etc. - ALL of them are incredibly miserable and many SCARED - because - DESPITE all the DRIVEL you read/hear/see in the media - the market has fallen AT LEAST 10-15% - and in many cases double that!! It is simply AMAZING how the likes of Nationwide/Halifax etc. etc. get away with their LIES!!! Talk about market fixing!!

BUT - All you FTB's out there - BE AWARE - Now is NOT the time to enter the market - unless you get a 50% discount. It is hovering on the edge of abyss like the cartoons - IN SLOW MOTION..... DO NOT DO NOT DO NOT let them fool you into buying into the market - DON't DO IT!!!!!!

Edited November 2, 2005 by eric pebble

[The Masked Tulip]

The thing is, in my part of the World, a 25% drop in prices today would still NOT make houses affordable. It would still be cheaper to rent and HPs would still be at ridiculously high levels. FTBs would still not, IMPO, be able to get on to the ladder.

I believe 40% falls are needed before I see HPs as being NEAR affordable in Swansea. I personally think they will have to go to 50% falls.

I did a drive around the area yesterday and looking at what you can get for the money I and a friend both concluded that we would get better for less across the border in England these days. Nah, a 25% drop would not hack it.

[eric pebble]

The thing is, in my part of the World, a 25% drop in prices today would still NOT make houses affordable. It would still be cheaper to rent and HPs would still be at ridiculously high levels. FTBs would still not, IMPO, be able to get on to the ladder.

I believe 40% falls are needed before I see HPs as being NEAR affordable in Swansea. I personally think they will have to go to 50% falls.

I did a drive around the area yesterday and looking at what you can get for the money I and a friend both concluded that we would get better for less across the border in England these days. Nah, a 25% drop would not hack it.

Totally agree with you 'Tulip! INCREDIBLE how SIMPLE question is not posed every day of the week in the media: If you're earning £16-22k - how do you buy a property?? When "average" price is £155k - or £230k in SE & SW UK [or thereabouts]?? WHY DO THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA JUST NOT ASK THIS SIMPLE QUESTION???? NO ONE DOES IT!! IT IS INCRDEDIBLE!!!!

This - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=18359 - is a good indicator of reality from one of the big boys. Hold on to your pants!! Crash is looming big time.....

[2005]

Very little is moving where I am. In fact it is getting rather boring watching the market...same old houses week after week..month after month.

In the small area I am looking at I have seen lots of houses stick for months..then put up for rent..now taken of for rent and put back up for sale.

They just sit there empty. I have seen a couple of houses sell in the last two months but these have been 'bargains' about £15-20K below the asking price of other similar houses in the area and even these two have been stuck at SSTC for a while. I don't know if they will complete.

The problem is the more the market stagnates the sillier EA's become (desperation). Some houses are priced OK (overpriced but what you would expect in todays market). Others are just bonkers. I saw a three bed ex-council house up for just short of £300k this week. Other (non ex council) houses in the surrounding streets are asking £169-89K.

This is in the North West BTW - £300K for an ex council house???? It is nice and on a private road but it is at least £120K over priced. What are these people on?

[The Masked Tulip]

I am still trying to fathom the logic of a house in Gowerton, Swansea on the market for at least 12 months for 350K is now on the market, with a different EA, for 380K. Back in 2001 houses in the same cul-de-sac were going for 150K to 175K.

Also, jut down the road about a dozen houses built by a local builder - i.e quality - are still on the market for 250K to 275K. I looked at these this time last year and expected them to be snapped up as the quality is actually very good and they are in a nice, rural setting on the edge of North Gower. Nope!

[eric pebble]

I am still trying to fathom the logic of a house in Gowerton, Swansea on the market for at least 12 months for 350K is now on the market, with a different EA, for 380K. Back in 2001 houses in the same cul-de-sac were going for 150K to 175K.

Also, jut down the road about a dozen houses built by a local builder - i.e quality - are still on the market for 250K to 275K. I looked at these this time last year and expected them to be snapped up as the quality is actually very good and they are in a nice, rural setting on the edge of North Gower. Nope!

Oh well -- at least there are some great articles by SOME of the more intelligent -- These 2 will go down in history as The Writing on the Wall - http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaySt...tory_id=4079027 - & http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaySt...tory_id=4079458

And also another one here; "Whilst many are taking comfort from the idea that the housing market has stabilised, personal tax increases have yet to be introduced. In consequence, the current position will deteriorate. The Chancellor’s luck has finally run out." - http://www.moneyweek.com/article/1339/inve...-uk-growth.html

Edited November 2, 2005 by eric pebble

[eric pebble]

I am still trying to fathom the logic of a house in Gowerton, Swansea on the market for at least 12 months for 350K is now on the market, with a different EA, for 380K. Back in 2001 houses in the same cul-de-sac were going for 150K to 175K.

Also, jut down the road about a dozen houses built by a local builder - i.e quality - are still on the market for 250K to 275K. I looked at these this time last year and expected them to be snapped up as the quality is actually very good and they are in a nice, rural setting on the edge of North Gower. Nope!

Look how Ellis of Halifax even gets to lie in the Gulf!! - http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/story.asp?A...I&IssueID=28217

However - hidden in that article is some of the truth... "Hertfordshire posted the biggest drop of 6pc while Surrey, Somerset, Northamptonshire, Warwickshire and Dorset all reported drops of 5pc."

[eurows]

I am still trying to fathom the logic of a house in Gowerton, Swansea on the market for at least 12 months for 350K is now on the market, with a different EA, for 380K. Back in 2001 houses in the same cul-de-sac were going for 150K to 175K.

Also, jut down the road about a dozen houses built by a local builder - i.e quality - are still on the market for 250K to 275K. I looked at these this time last year and expected them to be snapped up as the quality is actually very good and they are in a nice, rural setting on the edge of North Gower. Nope!

I have seen a similar tactic near me. This house on with EA for £199.000 for more than 6 months changes EA and they promote it for £204,995 and it has now been up another 6 months

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-468...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

[2005]

Same here.

A house near up up for £160k end of last year/early this year (?) Couldn't sell so got taken off the market for a few months.

Put back on the market over the late spring/early(?) summer at £182k

Still not sold...I wonder why.

A quick question to you all with more experience.

I am thinking of putting an offer in on this house if it is still hanging around next spring. If I offer below the 'market value' should I be looking at offering a percentage off £182K or off £160K.

Should I tell them I know it was on the market at the lower price but didn't sell?

What do you think?

[Marina]

First estate agent:

'Well I'm very disappointed you are taking the property off us Mr. Brown, I really feel with just a bit more time we could find you a buyer. During the last 6 months we have advertised it in the local paper 10 times, sent the details out to 241 applicants, featured it on our web site and, of course, on four of the property portals and, as you know, we provided a virtual tour and a floor plan. I really feel we have done everything we can Mr. Brown."

Second estate agent:

'Right Mr. Brown. Your problem is nothing to do with price, in fact I think you're on too cheap, that may be part of the problem. If a property is too cheap people think there is something wrong with it and don't make appointments to view.

What are we going to do different than your first estate agent?

We're going to find you a buyer Mr. Brown, or bust a gut trying. Of course every agent uses the same tools to sell houses, but it's like anything - it's how you use the tools that counts. We are quite simply more pro-active. The poor, poor buggers who work for us are like trained dogs. On the phone morning, noon and night badgering people to come and have a look. If people don't come and have a look, how are they going to make an offer? You leave it to us. There are a lot of agents at the moment talking about a sticky market - not us. We've just had the best September since we opened.'

When you think about it - they deserve everything they have coming.

Same here.

A house near up up for £160k end of last year/early this year (?) Couldn't sell so got taken off the market for a few months.

Put back on the market over the late spring/early(?) summer at £182k

Still not sold...I wonder why.

A quick question to you all with more experience.

I am thinking of putting an offer in on this house if it is still hanging around next spring. If I offer below the 'market value' should I be looking at offering a percentage off £182K or off £160K.

Should I tell them I know it was on the market at the lower price but didn't sell?

What do you think?

Find out what it sold for last time round. Add retail inflation to that price and offer if. If they said 'feck off' just say, I am offering what was paid for the house last time plus inflation. Why do you think it's worth so much more. Has it got a gold bath?

Just don't play their game. You'll get suckered in, you'll pay over the odds and you'll end up in negative equity for a bloody long time because things aren't going to get better in the economy for a generation.

[2005]

Thanks. That brings it to about £130k which I think is reasonable.

With a deposit that would leave us with a mortgage of about 2.5x our joint income. £130K sounds a big drop from £182 but you are right it just isn't worth it (it hasn't got a gold bath).

Think I will keep an eye on this one and see how it progesses.

[eurows]

Thanks. That brings it to about £130k which I think is reasonable.

With a deposit that would leave us with a mortgage of about 2.5x our joint income. £130K sounds a big drop from £182 but you are right it just isn't worth it (it hasn't got a gold bath).

Think I will keep an eye on this one and see how it progesses.

Some silly bu**er will buy it first. Question is how many silly bu**ers are there out there.

[Bedsprings]

We nearly bought a house 1 1/2 years ago - we offered and were accepted at a bit off the asking price. Then our buyers got cold feet, and so did we, so we pulled out, and it was taken off the market We eventually sold, but decided we didn't really like the house enough to pick up the reins again.

It was put back on the market when they decided to get divorced - about Feb this year - different agent, 6% more than we'd agreed to pay, and around it stuck. They reduced it by 13% from the new price about 3 months ago, but it's still around. We've heard someone wants to buy it but they can't sell, so it's not marked as SSTC or anything.

[eric pebble]

Same here.

A house near up up for £160k end of last year/early this year (?) Couldn't sell so got taken off the market for a few months.

Put back on the market over the late spring/early(?) summer at £182k

Still not sold...I wonder why.

A quick question to you all with more experience.

I am thinking of putting an offer in on this house if it is still hanging around next spring. If I offer below the 'market value' should I be looking at offering a percentage off £182K or off £160K.

Should I tell them I know it was on the market at the lower price but didn't sell?

What do you think?

Heard story of couple in Surrey whi have had 3 bed semi on market for 16months: Latest buyer - 5th time running - has pulled out at last moment! .......

[right_freds_dead]

they do get snapped up if they are fairly priced.

one house near me was £140k april.

sold in nov for £110k

doesnt matter how long she had it on for £140k. people are not stupid.

even when forced by a ***** government.

[sealaw2000]

I like this idea...what calculation would I need to do to work out how much a house should be priced (ie what has retail inflation been)? Cheers

First estate agent:

'Well I'm very disappointed you are taking the property off us Mr. Brown, I really feel with just a bit more time we could find you a buyer. During the last 6 months we have advertised it in the local paper 10 times, sent the details out to 241 applicants, featured it on our web site and, of course, on four of the property portals and, as you know, we provided a virtual tour and a floor plan. I really feel we have done everything we can Mr. Brown."

Second estate agent:

'Right Mr. Brown. Your problem is nothing to do with price, in fact I think you're on too cheap, that may be part of the problem. If a property is too cheap people think there is something wrong with it and don't make appointments to view.

What are we going to do different than your first estate agent?

We're going to find you a buyer Mr. Brown, or bust a gut trying. Of course every agent uses the same tools to sell houses, but it's like anything - it's how you use the tools that counts. We are quite simply more pro-active. The poor, poor buggers who work for us are like trained dogs. On the phone morning, noon and night badgering people to come and have a look. If people don't come and have a look, how are they going to make an offer? You leave it to us. There are a lot of agents at the moment talking about a sticky market - not us. We've just had the best September since we opened.'

When you think about it - they deserve everything they have coming.

Find out what it sold for last time round. Add retail inflation to that price and offer if. If they said 'feck off' just say, I am offering what was paid for the house last time plus inflation. Why do you think it's worth so much more. Has it got a gold bath?

Just don't play their game. You'll get suckered in, you'll pay over the odds and you'll end up in negative equity for a bloody long time because things aren't going to get better in the economy for a generation.

[DEMO]

Oh well -- at least there are some great articles by SOME of the more intelligent -- These 2 will go down in history as The Writing on the Wall - http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaySt...tory_id=4079027 - & http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaySt...tory_id=4079458

I've got a lot of time for the Economist but I don't agree that this is one of their greatest moments (either that or our interpreations of the articles are slightly different).

If you run a search for 'house prices' on the Economist website you can see that they have been consistently predicting a house price cash since 2002.

I am not saying that there will not be a house price crash but if you had decided to rent instead of buy three years ago on the basis of the Economist opinion you would be pretty fed up by now.

Can't argue with the theory but it's all about the timing really and the Economist called the top of this market way too soon.

We might not even be at the top yet.

[undecided]

[if you're earning £16-22k - how do you buy a property?? When "average" price is £155k - or £230k in SE & SW UK [or thereabouts]??

well the answer is simple, you can't. England has become an ultra-capitalist country where the rich own more and more and the poor own less and less. the extreme of capitalism is some sort of dicature where the rich decide. Therefore, once houses are not available to the average person because they are too expensive, people will have to rent from the rich people and that will make them richer and the gap will increase until all house belong to a small group of rich families (seen this before !) Every society follows a cicle, all political regime raise and fall... just wait and see

[Brian Potter]

The market IS falling. Unfortunately numpties are still in denial. My neighbour had their mews property on the market for 8 months last year asking £220K - no takers. (they bought 3 years ago for £135K)

They subsequently took it off the market whilst they had a baby only to remarket the property for £240K last April.

2 viewings in 7 month and FA offers.

People are either just thick or the EA's are making promises they cant keep.

[Marina]

The silver lining is that I reckon half the EAs in the country will go out of business. Lots of them have over-reached in the last few years - expanding rapidly and taking on more and more leases on shops and staff. Staff are easy to get rid off - very, very easy - but leases are a different matter.

The word lease should be replaced by millstone. The nice high street shops in my town are 30k a year. Imagine paying that plus wages when you are selling one house a month.

And, of course, business rates. The nice people at the council want their 4k a year regardless of whether you are doing any business.

[Goat]

And, of course, business rates. The nice people at the council want their 4k a year regardless of whether you are doing any business.

£4k a year? try £14k more like!

[eric pebble]

The market IS falling. Unfortunately numpties are still in denial. My neighbour had their mews property on the market for 8 months last year asking £220K - no takers. (they bought 3 years ago for £135K)

They subsequently took it off the market whilst they had a baby only to remarket the property for £240K last April.

2 viewings in 7 month and FA offers.

People are either just thick or the EA's are making promises they cant keep.

Agreed Brian: THIS is the same thing I have observed ALL OVER the place: Properties put on market for £280k (e.g.): Sticks for ever - no buyers/bites at all. Put back on for £250, 240, 230k etc. - and STILL no buyers at all!! Only when they go way down to something like £199k [proportionately same kind of discounts from most starting prices] is there ANY interest at all.

PROGNOSIS? Market is falling as much as 25-30% - and this is only the start..... LOADS and LOADS of unsold properties which have been sitting there with virtually no interest from "buyers" at all......fo as much as 18 months!! I hear of these kind of examples day after day after day - from people ALL OVER the UK. It is the greatest untold story of the day -- media and all VI's that run media are keeping it off the agenda -- of that there can be no doubt....

[DEMO]

Agreed Brian: THIS is the same thing I have observed ALL OVER the place: Properties put on market for £280k (e.g.): Sticks for ever - no buyers/bites at all. Put back on for £250, 240, 230k etc. - and STILL no buyers at all!! Only when they go way down to something like £199k [proportionately same kind of discounts from most starting prices] is there ANY interest at all.

PROGNOSIS? Market is falling as much as 25-30% - and this is only the start..... LOADS and LOADS of unsold properties which have been sitting there with virtually no interest from "buyers" at all......fo as much as 18 months!! I hear of these kind of examples day after day after day - from people ALL OVER the UK. It is the greatest untold story of the day -- media and all VI's that run media are keeping it off the agenda -- of that there can be no doubt....

I really don't think this is being kept off the agenda by the media as a VI conspiracy. It is not in the media because no story exists here. To make this a story you would need to be reporting some statisical data. This is not the same as SHOUTING LOUDLY and repeating yourself until someone believes you.

The reason the banks and estate agents get in the media is because they are able to consistently issue reports based on significant statistical samples.

If you were able to produce a monthly report backing up your claims maybe you could get a monthly media quote as well. The press has plenty of space to fill so I am sure they would be more than happy to receive another report which helps them put words on a page. As things stand there is no such data set being reported from a HPC viewpoint.

Feel free to start your own reports, might even be a few quid in it if the market really does head the way you are predicting. What's stopping you?

[The Masked Tulip]

£4k a year? try £14k more like!

Across Swansea numerous small computer shops have opened up - man selling homebuilt PCs, doing upgrades, virus removal, etc.

I find it odd as people I talk to say they would not pay for these kind of services - perhaps the sods are used to me doing it for nothing for them - but these shops seem to be growing in number. Now, I can't see how they make a living re salary let alone the cost of a lease on a shop and business rates. Many other small shop owners I know have basically packed it in between the lease and business rates costs.

[Scooter]

Agreed Brian: THIS is the same thing I have observed ALL OVER the place: Properties put on market for £280k (e.g.): Sticks for ever - no buyers/bites at all. Put back on for £250, 240, 230k etc. - and STILL no buyers at all!! Only when they go way down to something like £199k [proportionately same kind of discounts from most starting prices] is there ANY interest at all.

PROGNOSIS? Market is falling as much as 25-30% - and this is only the start..... LOADS and LOADS of unsold properties which have been sitting there with virtually no interest from "buyers" at all......fo as much as 18 months!! I hear of these kind of examples day after day after day - from people ALL OVER the UK. It is the greatest untold story of the day -- media and all VI's that run media are keeping it off the agenda -- of that there can be no doubt....

Sadly not quite that way in my bit of Nth London (NW3)-houses stick at their price (unsold for years some of them) but with minimal drops in the 1-5% range. Vendors are still sitting it out. I just do not see yet what you see, much as I want to...

Edited November 4, 2005 by Scooter