Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Boom And Bust


Recommended Posts

Particularly useful visual for all those who are tempted to ask the "where are we now?" question. Racing down the ski slope, it would appear - in spite of all the guff on stability, the bottom, affordability, bargains etc. etc. etc.

Most rational people should be able to take this on board.

Edited by Shotoflight
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 50
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

That should be the first thing the EAs show people who want to put their houses up for sale. Looking in the windows of the EAs in Ballyhackamore it's still 2007 :blink:

Sales are starting to happen at what I consider realistic prices, but it must take a lot of work to 1) find a reasonable starting price 2) negotiate a further reasonable discount.

The acceptance phase is proving very slow.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said on another thread, Ithink we're close to the bottom. It may undershoot then trail along for a few years imo. I believe there is 'value' to be had ..... people just need to look for it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said on another thread, Ithink we're close to the bottom.

... based on what historical or even current economic data? Have you any evidence or are you just guessing?

Did you look at that graph? For 15 years between 1980-1995 house prices here were roughly a third less than than they are now.

Yes, people may be lucky enough to find a house that represents good value - but that has nothing to do with the bottom of the market.

Forget individual properties - they are irrelevant to the 'bottom of the market' as a whole.

To reach the bottom of that graph, the average house here will drop by £20,000 to £30,000. You really think that is close to bottom?:unsure:

Edited by Belfast Boy
Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with you BB - there is still a whole world of denial out there in the middle market. One or two bargains do not make a bottom of the market.

Realistically most of those properties should have big signs that say, 'NOT For Sale - at current market value.' The vendors are wasting their time and yours.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed....I'm looking middle market at the minute as a first time buyer who's been renting thru the crash. 20%-30% deposit and aip. I'm targeting houses ~250k at the minute, first thing I say to the estate agent is if they're not prepared to listen to offers ~200k then it's wasting both our time. Had a couple of people agree to viewings who've then rang 1 or 2 days before to say they're house was being removed from the market....reality must have hit so according to the estate agent they're going to relist in 12-24 months when things "come back" a bit.

Can get a bit frustrating but to be honest I'm quite enjoying the whole process. Key things seem to be don't get attached to a property, don't have a time scale and don't fully trust ea's word. Had one last week, viewed 18 months ago, was up for 225, made an offer of 190, refused. Reduced bit by bit to 190, ea rang me last week said there's an offer of 165 if I went 170 I'd have it. Was on the fence so I left it only to see it on property news thismorning for 162.5k. Ok the buyer could have pulled out but like I said....don't take everything at face value.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't even look at a house on with TR or BTW - you just know it will have owners in cloud cuckoo land - pointless waste of time.

Same here, as said already outside of Belfast it really is a sign saying this house is not for sale.

Oh and on the dodgy pictures, heard that the local expensive EA recently got rid of their contracted photographer and now just take pictures themselves to save on costs, did some picture comparisons of old and new stuff with them and it really shows, half the reason to go with the dearer one was the decent pictures/brochures.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What gets me is when you see a house outside Belfast but advertised with TR or BTW. You know the local agents have said "not a mission at that price". So they go with an "exclusive" agency to get what it's "worth". Pure denial. The for sale sign just goes green with moss.

I've experienced this first hand, just once thankfully in the past year; Usual story, large country dwelling, very grand to be fair but the type of house that has a very very limited number of potential buyers. Vendors don't have to sell but would like to as they were relocating for work, obviously could afford to keep the house and rent elsewhere. Gave a very realistic valuation, backed up by my usual 3 or 4 comparables and a good dose of realism about the market. Got the expected response, 'We couldn't possibly sell it for that price, we won't be giving it away'. I left on good terms but saw it online a week later with TR at £100k above my valuation price. There are half a dozen similar properties on the market at a lower price with local agents including ourselves so I doubt anyone will be overpaying for a house just because the EA is a big shot Belfast agent. My photos are as good if not better than theirs anyway :P

Link to post
Share on other sites

Vendors don't have to sell but would like to as they were relocating for work, obviously could afford to keep the house and rent elsewhere. :P

This is purely my opinion on the 'middle ground' refusing to budge.

Either - they would like to sell but don't have to so will wait - no price reduction.

or they're relocating for work and would like to sell - but can afford to keep and rent or pay two mortgages. - no price reduction.

The fact is they have a family home, general spec as they like it, room, garden, possible room to extend etc. Don't have to move, so won't accept current market values.

You want a middle market deal - it's generally forced in some way - repossession, emigration, etc

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is purely my opinion on the 'middle ground' refusing to budge.

Either - they would like to sell but don't have to so will wait - no price reduction.

or they're relocating for work and would like to sell - but can afford to keep and rent or pay two mortgages. - no price reduction.

The fact is they have a family home, general spec as they like it, room, garden, possible room to extend etc. Don't have to move, so won't accept current market values.

You want a middle market deal - it's generally forced in some way - repossession, emigration, etc

Wonder how many selling at the middle market are just being greedy/deluded, or they simply have no choice, as in they're stuck in negative equity and can't sell at realistic prices which would restrict them to move afterwards (since they'd have no deposit).

What if enough QE is being pumped into the system, would that help level things out? I'm not so sure, but maybe that is their thinking when "waiting it out".

I'm a potential buyer into the middle market, but instead I am looking into renting because there is no sign of movement....

Link to post
Share on other sites

You want a middle market deal - it's generally forced in some way - repossession, emigration, etc

We used to talk about the 3 D's - death, divorce, debt. So the actual middle market is very limited. I guess that is reflected in sales volumes.

So a Temple Robinson sign really means House NOT For Sale. :lol:

Link to post
Share on other sites

What gets me is when you see a house outside Belfast but advertised with TR or BTW. You know the local agents have said "not a mission at that price". So they go with an "exclusive" agency to get what it's "worth". Pure denial. The for sale sign just goes green with moss.

Dont know the figures and would be promoting any agency but I imagine that BTW, in particular, with two outlets sell more houses that any other agency in NI.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I viewed a house with tr, took a half day from work to discover serious damp coming up the kitchen walls. They didn't come with me, I was shown around by the tennant, who under questioning revealed it floods maybe once every couple of years with big rain. There's absolutely no way they didn't know the serious issues with the house but still let me take a half day from work without mentioning it!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Dont know the figures and would be promoting any agency but I imagine that BTW, in particular, with two outlets sell more houses that any other agency in NI.

The majority of BTW sales are coming from repos. They seem to be good at getting the corporate vendor to agree to a good price, and so are able to move more on fairly quickly

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

Nice graph on p15

Some interesting data on vacancies p3. although numbers have trebled in 10 yrs, the issue is complex.

http://www.nihe.gov.uk/hrb_issue_14_autumn_2012.pdf

• Average house prices in Northern Ireland peaked in mid-2007, when prices were 55% higher than a year earlier.

• House price growth in the region decelerated rapidly in late 2007, and average prices began to fall in spring 2008.

• The pattern of house price change in Northern Ireland has remained erratic – and generally negative – for some time.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.