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karhu

What Will The Mpc Decision Be Next Week

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After the FED increased interest rates by 0.25% and are signalling more raises, what will the MPC do next week? I guess this is more tricky than last month....

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I've voted no change because I'm sure the MPC would issue a few clues to the markets before an increase. Apart from the bearish speach which was a while ago have I missed any recent clues?

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Guest consa

I would go with no change but certain members of the MPC will vote to raise them, they wouldn't raise them without severe early warnings in the media, don't want to shock the financial markets now do they.

With global inflationary fears they will take the hold and wait approach as the effects of higher oil have still to feed through to the figures, they will also come under pressure to keep the pound competitive against other currencies especially the US and wouldn't want to leave it too long.

My guess is the rate will go up 0.25% Jan/Feb after the Christmas "spending spree" they wouldn't want to scupper that, thereafter we will follow the US rate all the way and possibly more to bring things back into line.

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I would go with no change but certain members of the MPC will vote to raise them, they wouldn't raise them without severe early warnings in the media, don't want to shock the financial markets now do they.

With global inflationary fears they will take the hold and wait approach as the effects of higher oil have still to feed through to the figures, they will also come under pressure to keep the pound competitive against other currencies especially the US and wouldn't want to leave it too long.

My guess is the rate will go up 0.25% Jan/Feb after the Christmas "spending spree" they wouldn't want to scupper that, thereafter we will follow the US rate all the way and possibly more to bring things back into line.

Remember the MPC targets inflation and not growth, and over a TWO YEAR WINDOW.

I think they've warned the financial markets that they can't attend to both. Sounds to me that they're getting worried about inflation, and why wouldn't they? My money's on a reverse of the 0.25% drop either this month or next.

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After the FED increased interest rates by 0.25% and are signalling more raises, what will the MPC do next week? I guess this is more tricky than last month....

i vote fixed.

i think every decision from now on will be fixed :)

(as in 'a fix' - just incase the joke is lost)

Edited by Losing Faith

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Remember the MPC targets inflation and not growth, and over a TWO YEAR WINDOW.

I don't believe that is actually the case for a minute with the current incumbents.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Guest Guy_Montag

I voted fixed there is no indication that they are going to change their current way of thinking.

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Remember the MPC targets inflation and not growth, and over a TWO YEAR WINDOW.

I don't believe that is actually the case for a minute with the current incumbents.

Only a few months ago so called economists were pricing in two IR cuts. No chance of that now. The MPC has gone decidedly HAWKISH of late (even the ECB has started to become HAWKISH).

If you think about it the BoE has to turn to money tap of soon or the UK will become a complete and utter basket case. :ph34r:

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Christmas is coming - they will not change now until January at the earliest. They will not wish to be seen as the cause of the high street collapse IMPO.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Christmas is coming - they will not change now until January at the earliest. They will not wish to be seen as the cause of the high street collapse IMPO.

agreed. rates to remain unchanged with Merv heading a small minority (2 or 3) voting for a rise

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Only a few months ago so called economists were pricing in two IR cuts.

Anyone know what interest rate movements the markets are pricing in over the next few months?

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Only a few months ago so called economists were pricing in two IR cuts. No chance of that now. The MPC has gone decidedly HAWKISH of late (even the ECB has started to become HAWKISH).

I think they'll wait until rising inflation gets firmly entrenched in the public psych before they start raising again. I think if they raised them now, it will cause an uproar with the people that call the shots (business giants)

Then when inflation gets out of hand, they'll blame factors that are out of their control, or an freak occurance.

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Come off it, if inflation starts taking off they'll just jig the basket of goods used to calculated inflation about, or revise up the inflation target,

We've already had the most hawkish member replaced with a dove in recent weeks. This government has all but promised low rates.

Edited by simon99

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Possible a feak occurance like this?

HYPOTHETICAL TIMES HEADLINE 2009:

INFLATION HITS 27%. IMF called in as Brown resigns.

More massive unaccounted PFI and pension liabilities come to light as nation struggles on brink of bankruptcy.

One trader speaking confidentially in the City, when asked to comment on the unprecedented rise in gilt rates said: "It's not what we know. Everyone's glad to see the back of 'Clown'. It's what we don't know. People are muttering about it being another Maxwell - but this time it's on a national scale. And he hasn't even jumped off a boat! So we've got to factor in his pension too!"

The MPC can either make gradual 0.25% per month rises now or they'll end up having to make 0.5% rises later on.

Inflation is building:

For example, "Farmers launch strike to protest low prices"

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...&archived=False

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They'll keep it the same this month, but make sure the minutes are loaded with 'inflation worry' comments so the markets are prepared for a hike in December or january if things don't change.

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I'm voting no change.

I'm guessing the next change will be Feb at the earliest. (+0.25%)

Sounds bang on to me. Although, a pre-christmas rise would spread christmas cheer down on the high street.

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Sounds bang on to me. Although, a pre-christmas rise would spread christmas cheer down on the high street.

Surely NOW is the time to raise rates, to prove that the BoE is truely independent and send a message to the sheeple who just keep on borrowing to finance a posh and becks -esque lifestyle. :ph34r:

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no change.

provided King can persuade those on the commitee (in Browns pocket- eager to cut), that inflation is out there.

quite a few of the commitee feel that with low aggregate demand and economic activity then inflation will trend downwards.

King - on the other hand says the benefits from falling import prices from the Chinese is starting to recede. Soon the imported goods part of the inflation measure will be flat year on year .

then inflation figures will be purely a domestic issue.

lets see gas,elec,council tax, petrol going up for starters!!

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My guess is the rate will go up 0.25% Jan/Feb after the Christmas "spending spree" they wouldn't want to scupper that, thereafter we will follow the US rate all the way and possibly more to bring things back into line.

could be right there consa....a january hike would be a bit of a bugger wouldn't it!!

....I'll keep an eye on the 10yr bond yield,it's a reasonable predictor of where we are going.

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I'd say there will be no change this side of Christmas. The next rise (if there is one) will be February. I can't see much cause for a further cut in the short term now at all.

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Anyone know what interest rate movements the markets are pricing in over the next few months?

we were looking at 3 rate cuts worth in june(of which we got one)

now we are looking at virtually no chance(and if US bond yields keep on the up like they are then we will be looking at a hike soon....will become apparent when our 10yr yield starts to go up past 4.50%)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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