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BearLite

What I Have Gleaned On This Site

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Is that overall, the house slide is going to take a few years. For me this is the general message that HPC communicates. This is from reading the graphs,reading the previous newspaper entries from 1989 - 1994, learning markets are cyclical and reading all the anecdotes (as well as keeping my beady eye on the property around me).

I'm not expecting it to happen straight away and I'm certainly not bothered about the new nationwide figures.

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Is that overall, the house slide is going to take a few years. For me this is the general message that HPC communicates. This is from reading the graphs,reading the previous newspaper entries from 1989 - 1994, learning markets are cyclical and reading all the anecdotes (as well as keeping my beady eye on the property around me).

I'm not expecting it to happen straight away and I'm certainly not bothered about the new nationwide figures.

you make a sensible assumption BL, others please take note .

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Buy that man a beer! Good post!

I was quite frankly amazed at the negativity on this site from one set of figures from a VI.

A HPC does not happen over night. It will take several years. We will clearly see the 1% monthly falls (on average) very very soon. Some months the stats will "show" rises and the bulls will come out shouting with their inane rants of desperation (oh a bit like today!)... Then the falls will continue.

Sales volumes are down the toilet - yet some months will show rises and the bulls will start off again.

Interest rates will rise or the pound will tank....... That exit everyone will be rushing for will seem quite small :-)

HPC is happening now. It will take several years to play out. Patience guys - and you will get what you're waiting for....

B)

Edited by Badlad1967

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Buy that man a beer! Good post!

I was quite frankly amazed at the negativity on this site from one set of figures from a VI.

A HPC does not happen over night. It will take several years. We will clearly see the 1% monthly falls (on average) very very soon. Some months the stats will "show" rises and the bulls will come out shouting with their inane rants of desperation (oh a bit like today!)... Then the falls will continue.

Sales volumes are down the toilet - yet some months will show rises and the bulls will start off again.

Interest rates will rise or the pound will tank....... That exit everyone will be rushing for will seem quite small :-)

HPC is happening now. It will take several years to play out. Patience guys - and you will get what you're waiting for....

B)

what those figures failed to mention is that th increase was almost EXCLUSIVELY driven by BTL as well.......I think this is the "pricing in " of SIPPS phase happening..........and BOY are they in for a disappointment when the chancellor does a stealth tax on them(namely the reduction of tax perks in SIPPS the same way he raided pensions in 97!!!)

...you can bet GB won't be too blatent about it....but he needs the money so IT'S GONNA HAPPEN!

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I really don't see what all the fuss about the Nationwide figure is. So what? There will be ups and downs at the moment. Most of the factors which will really get a crash going are still waiting in the wings. There's loads of potential trouble ahead.

There is still a lot of sense in forecasting house prices to fall. There is little sense in seeming to extrapolate a bit of random noise in the monthly statistics into the start of a return to 20% a year rises. There are few reasons for that as far as I can see, and anyone suggesting it has the burden of explaining how it could be possible.

Don't take the Nationwide result so much to heart! It's just noise.

Edited by Levy process

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It's may take a few years to really kick off - yes. That said, there's a surge in reposseessions with only the moderate rise in unemployment we've seen over the last year. I mean, it's only the beginning of the beginning and people are in trouble.

Many firms are reported close to insolvency. A poor Christmas for the shops - seems certain with the debt-saturation of British consumers - and jobs will be shed at a much faster rate.

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Don't take the Nationwide result so much to heart! It's just noise.

I dont think it's just noise, but I know what you mean. I think it is the inevitable bounce after an interest rate cut, pent up demand and a lot of possitive noises in the media. That said, I think it is a relatively dead bounce.

The street where I live, in a vilage south of edinburgh, is now littered with for sale signs as houses are put back on the market again in anticipation. That said nopthing, and I mean nothing is being sold.

Six months ago the signs would not have lasted a week. You dont have to watch the weather forcast to find out if it's raining. Just look out the window.

Edited by jellybean

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It's may take a few years to really kick off - yes. That said, there's a surge in reposseessions with only the moderate rise in unemployment we've seen over the last year. I mean, it's only the beginning of the beginning and people are in trouble.

Many firms are reported close to insolvency. A poor Christmas for the shops - seems certain with the debt-saturation of British consumers - and jobs will be shed at a much faster rate.

If it rolls out - really gathers momentum before a few years, it will be interesting to watch. Although I not that keen on hearing about job losses but I know it's going to be a factor.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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