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othello

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Arguments regarding the market have become so convoluted people are unable to see the wood for the trees.

Fact: the house price market (and recent growth in the economy) was fuelled by debt.

Fact: the level of debt is now unsustainable. Bankruptcies are rising and repossessions are at their highest level for 12 years.

History strongly suggests that the market is likely to decline by 25-30% which will bring it back to its long term sustainable level. This is unlikely to happen over a very short period due to the momentum in the market, more likely over 2-3 years, maybe more.

The speed of decline will be influenced by interest rates, unemployment and all the other obvious macroeconomic indicators but these will not affect the level of decline. Currently these indicators suggest that the decline will increase over the next 12 months.

The end result will be the same.

Edited by othello

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Back to basics - how far back do you want to go ?

The BIG problem as far as I see it is that the world (6 billion and rising) can't cope with 6 billion rampant consumers, consuming raw materials, energy and food, creating pollution etc etc at the rate we do in the Western world.

The whole thing has to go bang at some point in the future. The exponential curve of consumerism can't go on forever. In nature, nothing keeps increasing exponentially forever.

I've no idea, when the party has to stop, but stop it will. Thats when it all comes home to roost as it will simply be impossible to pay back all that borrowed money. In fact, it will all have to get written off.

When we get to this point. Buy a gun with your last few quid.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

The BIG problem as far as I see it is that the world (6 billion and rising) can't cope with 6 billion rampant consumers, consuming raw materials, energy and food, creating pollution etc etc at the rate we do in the Western world.

The whole thing has to go bang at some point in the future. The exponential curve of consumerism can't go on forever. In nature, nothing keeps increasing exponentially forever.

I've no idea, when the party has to stop, but stop it will. Thats when it all comes home to roost as it will simply be impossible to pay back all that borrowed money. In fact, it will all have to get written off.

When we get to this point. Buy a gun with your last few quid.

That`s a very bearish statement Up North.

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Very true Charlie,

but I don't expect either of us to see it - suspect I'll be in the graveyard before it happens properly !

It seems the madness started properly in the 1960s, then inflation, oil crisis, militant trade unionism, Thatcherism, liberalisation, globalisation, consumerism gone mad and finally Reality TV in the shape of Big Brother.

The lunatics are in charge of the asylum.

It can only end in tears, but it'll probably be another 50 years or so.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Very true Charlie,

but I don't expect either of us to see it - suspect I'll be in the graveyard before it happens properly !

It seems the madness started properly in the 1960s, then inflation, oil crisis, militant trade unionism, Thatcherism, liberalisation, globalisation, consumerism gone mad and finally Reality TV in the shape of Big Brother.

The lunatics are in charge of the asylum.

It can only end in tears, but it'll probably be another 50 years or so.

A very good point.

Myself having lived in the asylum through these periods can with all honesty say at least up to five years ago the doctors more or less gave the correct dose of the medication.

Unfortunately in the past five years they have so far, firstly by withdrawing the medication, and now failing the patients who have run a.mock in deciding the dose of medication now required. Sadly many are now beyond help from any medication.

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Arguments regarding the market have become so convoluted people are unable to see the wood for the trees.

Fact: the house price market (and recent growth in the economy) was fuelled by debt.

Fact: the level of debt is now unsustainable. Bankruptcies are rising and repossessions are at their highest level for 12 years.

History strongly suggests that the market is likely to decline by 25-30% which will bring it back to its long term sustainable level. This is unlikely to happen over a very short period due to the momentum in the market, more likely over 2-3 years, maybe more.

The speed of decline will be influenced by interest rates, unemployment and all the other obvious macroeconomic indicators but these will not affect the level of decline. Currently these indicators suggest that the decline will increase over the next 12 months.

The end result will be the same.

very good post othello,but I have to disagree taht the likes of unemployment will not have a bearing....they will have a MASSIVE bearing!,bigger than last time.

....the spin merchants can bleat on about the amount of single-households increasing but I'm afraid when times get REALLY tough people will club together to make ends meet(again)

....DID ANYBODY SEE THAT HOW TO RESCUE A HOUSE PROGRAMME TONIGHT?

....I WAS PREDICTING A BIT OF A SHIFT BACK TO CO-HABITING AND HEY PRESTO....THREE SINGLE MUMS WITH KIDS ON TONIGHTS PROG,CLUBBING TOGETHER TO BUY AN ABANDONED WAREHOUSE TO CONVERT TO FLATS FOR THEM AND THEIR SPROGS!!!!!!

(I thoght a really good wheeze was the micro-house on brekkie tv this morning though!!...had me in stitches......it's supposed to sleep/seat 4 in a 9' square cube....but what really got me is how three people had to get booted out every time they wanted to change the mode from bedroom to kitchen,to living room,to bathroom....etc!

...an even bigger wheeze was when I realised that a prison cell of roughly the same proportions only has to sleep 2!

...And OUR local authorities are interested....PAHHHH.....think sinclair C5 and you aren't too far off the mark.nice idea but ill thought out and practically useless when push comes to shove.

....probably be worth a bit in 20 years for freaky-novelty value....not much else(good for BTL!)

Edited by oracle

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Back to basics - how far back do you want to go ?

The BIG problem as far as I see it is that the world (6 billion and rising) can't cope with 6 billion rampant consumers, consuming raw materials, energy and food, creating pollution etc etc at the rate we do in the Western world.

The whole thing has to go bang at some point in the future. The exponential curve of consumerism can't go on forever. In nature, nothing keeps increasing exponentially forever.

I've no idea, when the party has to stop, but stop it will. Thats when it all comes home to roost as it will simply be impossible to pay back all that borrowed money. In fact, it will all have to get written off.

When we get to this point. Buy a gun with your last few quid.

wonders will never cease. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with anything you posted, but you've middled that one... I think it might be a bit sooner than 50yrs though.

I'm not sure if I'd rather it happened sooner, so that I might be young enough not to get wheeled off to the abattoir as a burden

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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