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Correct me if im wrong but didnt Bootle predict that the UK IR would soon be 3.5% not that many weeks ago.

In light of the booming US economy and the many predicted rate hikes ahead, not to mention the sea change in short sterling, how on earth did he come up with such a crazy notion?

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Correct me if im wrong but didnt Bootle predict that the UK IR would soon be 3.5% not that many weeks ago.

In light of the booming US economy and the many predicted rate hikes ahead, not to mention the sea change in short sterling, how on earth did he come up with such a crazy notion?

What an idiot. Reject anything he says in future.

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Correct me if im wrong but didnt Bootle predict that the UK IR would soon be 3.5% not that many weeks ago.

In light of the booming US economy and the many predicted rate hikes ahead, not to mention the sea change in short sterling, how on earth did he come up with such a crazy notion?

Yeah I think he is still right as the figures have been 'distorted' by irritable oil prices...

Let me make this simple for all of you...

* The CPI is inappropriately high due to the volatile oil market and all the other stuff that keeps on rising in price, but strip these inconvienences away and 'CORE INFLATION' suddenly doesn't look to bad.

* Now apply this logic to the UK IR and strip away this volatile oil effect and the 'CORE INTEREST RATE' does indeed hover around 3.5%...

Ha ha!! Things suddenly don't look so bad...

:D

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Yeah I think he is still right as the figures have been 'distorted' by irritable oil prices...

Let me make this simple for all of you...

* The CPI is inappropriately high due to the volatile oil market and all the other stuff that keeps on rising in price, but strip these inconvienences away and 'CORE INFLATION' suddenly doesn't look to bad.

* Now apply this logic to the UK IR and strip away this volatile oil effect and the 'CORE INTEREST RATE' does indeed hover around 3.5%...

Ha ha!! Things suddenly don't look so bad...

:D

BUT it is NOT

so it is BAD

ha ha

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Correct me if im wrong but didnt Bootle predict that the UK IR would soon be 3.5% not that many weeks ago.

In light of the booming US economy and the many predicted rate hikes ahead, not to mention the sea change in short sterling, how on earth did he come up with such a crazy notion?

I stand to be corrected but I am sure I had a disagreement with TTRTR last November.

I said rates would go up 2005 and TTRTR quoted Roger Bootle saying he ( Bootle ) was predicting rates of 3.5% middle of this year.

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I stand to be corrected but I am sure I had a disagreement with TTRTR last November.

I said rates would go up 2005 and TTRTR quoted Roger Bootle saying he ( Bootle ) was predicting rates of 3.5% middle of this year.

I'm sure you probably did...

:unsure:

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Yeah I think he is still right as the figures have been 'distorted' by irritable oil prices...

Let me make this simple for all of you...

* The CPI is inappropriately high due to the volatile oil market and all the other stuff that keeps on rising in price, but strip these inconvienences away and 'CORE INFLATION' suddenly doesn't look to bad.

* Now apply this logic to the UK IR and strip away this volatile oil effect and the 'CORE INTEREST RATE' does indeed hover around 3.5%...

Ha ha!! Things suddenly don't look so bad...

:D

CPI my friend is LOW. It doesn't represent the tru picture of inflation, only a convenient measure for our lacklustre Chancellor 'Crash' Gordon Frown.

All the oil majors price future projects based upon a 12% inflation rate.. Why would they do that? Why are people unable to pay off their huge debts?

Must be historically low inflation as the culprit?

:lol:

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Bootle's poodle parlour economy is doomed, it is unproductive, unprofitable and hugely overextended on cheap money.

If we see 3.5% rates again it will be in the middle of a depression.

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My how the memories fail you lot.

It must be the bearish attitude shining through.

So how far could interest rates fall? I have pencilled in 4 per cent by the end of 2006, which is way below what the markets are anticipating. Even so, I am worried that 4 per cent will prove to be too high.

Seems to me that he may have it right on the nose given what information we have to hand.

Roger Bootles article from a year ago:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...requestid=45536

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* Now apply this logic to the UK IR and strip away this volatile oil effect and the 'CORE INTEREST RATE' does indeed hover around 3.5%...

True indeed. Actually closer to 1.5% if you consider the underpant index. Still got **** all to do with the cost of living though unfortunately. Add in house prices and its 147%

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

My how the memories fail you lot.

It must be the bearish attitude shining through.

Seems to me that he may have it right on the nose given what information we have to hand.

Roger Bootles article from a year ago:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...requestid=45536

Many thanks TTRTR I have added the page to my favourites, it`s just the memory gets a little foggy as you get older, so more the reason to retire early.

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My how the memories fail you lot.

It must be the bearish attitude shining through.

Seems to me that he may have it right on the nose given what information we have to hand.

Roger Bootles article from a year ago:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...requestid=45536

You got the wrong end of the stick mate...

The Sunday Times

July 03, 2005

G8 ignore economic perils at the summit.

Quote:

'Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte, said the slowdown is “intense” and predicts a 3.5% rate (from 4.75% now) next year.'

The article you quote is from last year. 'I Told You So' clearly refers to a much more recent Bootle opinion:

Quote (from above):

'Correct me if im wrong but didnt Bootle predict that the UK IR would soon be 3.5% not that many WEEKS ago.'

TTRTR it look's like your memory fails you before you even finish reading a thread. Nevermind... It must be the bullish attitude shining through...

:blink:

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My how the memories fail you lot.

It must be the bearish attitude shining through.

Seems to me that he may have it right on the nose given what information we have to hand.

Roger Bootles article from a year ago:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...requestid=45536

I like this bit...

Moreover, we know from the past that once the housing market has turned it can quickly develop into a rout. All those speculative factors that formerly supported the market now go into reverse. Investors who are not getting a decent rental yield but are relying on capital growth instead see their capital values sliding.

Worth keeping articles like these.

We may disagree with others regarding the direction of the housing market, but I think most people would agree that there is tremendous change taking place...

Edited by BandWagon

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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