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After todays confusing nationwide statistics please read the following article about the world economy written by the cheif economist at Morgan Stanley.

Ancedotal evidence from this month will feed into the December data, house prices unlike stock markets take a long time to adjust (sorry GO DOWN! - im getting in with the VI terminlogy by describing downward prices as re-adjusting and increasing prices as booming!)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/68303e64-4a7b-11d...00779e2340.html

enjoy

mods: apologies if already posted

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Bringing this to the top in case people got too worked up about the nationwide figures they lost sight of what is going on in the world.

Great article. For someone of his seniority at such an institution (Chief economist at Morgan Stanley) that is some statement.

Will we know the shock when we see it?

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In the end, the history of economic crises is clear on one important thing: the longer any economy holds off in facing its imbalances, the greater the possibility of a hard landing. In my view, an unbalanced world has waited far too long to face up to the heavy lifting of global rebalancing. I would reluctantly conclude that there is now about a 40 per cent probability of a hard landing at some point in the next 12 months.

The writer is chief economist at Morgan Stanley

"The next 12 months" is a short timescale for predicting a hard landing. Could get nasty

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Interesting point re "the boy who cries wolf"

How many times have we heard "the crash has been delayed again" as if this means that house prices can never fall.

The truth is that it is impossible to predict what path house prices will take over the next year or so; all that can be said with any confidence is that they are not supported by any economic fundamentals.

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Nationwide and VI's make me laugh

almost as each week passes now the more desperate they become

My mate read this article about increasing house prices after today he reduced the asking price on his one bedroom flat in Nottingham from 130 to 126. One more drop will put him negative equity zone...clearly the figures are either A-Regional B-Absolute ******

hoping of course its B. But my heart says its a bit of both. In a evil way Im hoping there's a huge rise in high prices next year...the slump will be even bigger in the long run

But if people are stupid enough to pay outrageous prices for homes who can blame the EA's and VI's? for talking the market up?

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The truth is that it is impossible to predict what path house prices will take over the next year or so; all that can be said with any confidence is that they are not supported by any economic fundamentals.

Interesting article, and I'm sure he's right; on the other hand over the last couple of years I've read so many articles along these lines that I've rather stopped paying much attention to them. I'm with Young Goat. There may be meltdown. There ought to be. But no one knows.

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I think there will be a melt down and the longer we wait the harder it wil be. Banks and others are all playing for time. The longer they can put it off and reduce their vulnerabilies the better for them.

In the meantime we sit here with our lives on hold. Very frustrating. It is also gettinga bit scarry. If it really does go bang in a big way then we could get taken down with it. :(

Edited by FTBagain

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Slightly unsettling that a top economist thinks the world economy is

somehow 'broken', and doesn't have a clue what the problem might be...

ABB

Edited by AgeingBabyBoomer

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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