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Nationwide Figures Released

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Guest The_Oldie

The crash has been delayed at least until 2006.

That sounds about right, I would say 2nd Quarter before the big month on month falls start to kick in.

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According to Nationwide. . . .

Hometrack?

RICS?

Halifax (probably plus 3.5% :lol: )?

Land Registry?

All different, all use different criteria.

The REAL world? I was out and about Sunday and saw the first EA closed down in my area. Others have hundreds of properties with many posted with "new price" (a.k.a. price reduced). With so many houses on the market and very little, if anything selling, it is hard to see how any desperate sellers are getting higher prices. The Nationwide figures may reflect fewer higher priced properties selling thereby skewing the figures.

Don't forget its a propaganda war out there and the EAs/VIs have been taking a beating lately.

Good news is that BoE will not be lowering IR and Al Greenspan is going to raise US rates today by .25% to 4%. Even a hint of dropping UK rates and the Pound tanks.

16 months in a row down will not be changed that quickly--the market is still headed down, its just sinking slower than in previous crashes due to the continuing ability of people to MEW unfettered by prudent banking practices.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest consa

Hahaha, thats seasonally adjusted. The real figure is a rise of 0.4%. I got more than that on my savings.

September figure = £156517

October figure = £157107

+0.4%

Quite right

0.38%

They think everyone is stupid.

The higher End properties are selling pushing up the HPI causing distortion of the figure, note that this can and is happening now in a falling market,

HPI increasing whilst underlying HPI falling, interesting.

Only when the low end sales increase will we start to see the true extent of the falls, this will suck some FTB's into the market who will be buying at lower prices and hence will show in the figures at a later date.

Is it called a sucker rally or something like that?

edit = When does the SA year start and end ? does anyone know, I think this needs a closer look

Edited by consa

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Yawn....:)

like for like properties are selling for 20% less where I am then they were at peak..

I see houses in new build areas being built around new builds that have never sold..

We have the housing infrastructure..

and don't forget..

:)

we will follow the dollar..

oh..... look.. people are taking out massive mortgages.. huge debt... the country is safe...!!!

nope..

the fact that people may be buying does not mean the market is okay.. it means that the problems are getting worse.

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What really surprises me is that folk on here still expect all the usual VIs to issue bad news.

Why would they?

The Nationwide said today we are in for a house price crash.

Estate agents issued a warning to potential buyers to stay away as house prices are bound to fall.

It's not going to happen. In a world of SPIN they will always find some way of, at least, keeping the news neutral otherwise their business will go down the toilet.

The market is flat and stagnant.

I will believe which way it is going when people regularly get 20% off asking prices OR I stop seeing price reductions in papers and estate agents windows.

In the meantime, it's a case of working your way through fudged figues, spin and the output of doom-mongers.

The TRUTH is out there!! :ph34r:

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Guest muttley

Hahaha, thats seasonally adjusted. The real figure is a rise of 0.4%. I got more than that on my savings.

How come the figures only get seasonally adjusted upwards.Shouldn't the figures have been adjusted downward throughout the summer?

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Trouble is the general public will buy the spin and then buy a house

What I don't understand is the 'Until affordability improves houses prices won't go up' argument. How does affordability improve. Wages can never catch up with house prices. House prices have to come down to wage levels for affordability to improve and if they do that how can they then go up again.

Edited by eurows

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How come the figures only get seasonally adjusted upwards.Shouldn't the figures have been adjusted downward throughout the summer?

They do get adjusted downwards too, but when that happens then the people on this forum keep very very quiet about it instead of shouting about it.

For example, June's 0.2% decrease was a 0.3% increase unadjusted. April's 0.7% increase was 1.5% unadjusted. March's 0.2% decrease was a 0.7% increase unadjusted.

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So where's the regional breakdown? Not included in this report. I wonder why!

To answer my own question:

Regional breakdowns are only given quarterly (i'm not sure if this is a new thing or not)!

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Of the dwindling pool of kamikaze buyers we know, many were scared to death of SIPPs. Yeah, I know it's a red herring, but during the boom EAs have used fear to bully naive people into reckless buying decisions - 'You'll miss the boat', 'If you don't get that massive killer mortgage now, how will you buy when they'd doubled again?', 'Prices are shooting up'. SIPPs was perfect for stoking up terror in the run up to Halloween.

Also, isn't there always a mild Autumn upturn? Don't people move now before the winter truly sets in?

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The higher End properties are selling pushing up the HPI causing distortion of the figure, note that this can and is happening now in a falling market,

Surely this would be the best defensive move for anyone purchasing at the moment? Buy a good house in a good area and it should hold its value relatively well.

I have my doubts that STRs are going to see nominal falls big enough for it to be worth their while.

<_<

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This is not a boom, it's a dead-cat bounce, which could well be SIPP related activity. It can't be genuine FTBs who are still priced out and are suffering like never before.

If you look at the gradually unfolding economic turmoil around the world, it is still the worst possible time to take out a mortgage - ever.

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Why do you get so stressed about every little increment or decrement in monthly figures? You are setting yourselves up for a fall. If that point could be determined with accuracy the world would not be as it is.

I would say with a high level of confidence firstly there is likely to be a correction in the market in the next 3 years. To purchase a house given the pressent level of risk / reward involved would be stupid.

Finally you're quality of life is not likely to be improved by a huge amount of debt and worry with little prospect of any increase in financial security.

Dont buy into the myth. You dont actually need a big house, big car and big credit card bill to be happy. To quote Jesus Christ "greed and envy it's bummer man, you dont need it man, it will f**** you up man".

Edited by jellybean

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This thread is laughable!

Mr Market strikes again!

One bullish survey from a VI and all of a sudden the crash has been called off!! What naivety! Lets wait til the next hometrack survey and it will be 'Oh my god! the crash is back on!'

:lol:

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Guest muttley

Surely this would be the best defensive move for anyone purchasing at the moment? Buy a good house in a good area and it should hold its value relatively well.

I have my doubts that STRs are going to see nominal falls big enough for it to be worth their while.

<_<

I think what consa was saying is that good quality properties are still selling (they always do),and this distorts the "average" price.

I see many houses in the higher bracket that are reducing their prices,having been on the market for many months.

Are there many STRs who have not managed to increase their deposit by 3.3% over the last 12 months?

"Wait and see" policy still holds

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The interesting thing about this announcement by the Nationwide is that they are not talking the market up - at least not on the BBC.

When there is a monthly fall in prices we have comments like the market is "stabilising" or "bottoming out" etc.

Now we have huge monthly rise yet the NW economist says this:

"Affordability and overall debt levels will still have to adjust to more comfortable levels before we can expect any widespread increase in demand and thus prices"

As you know, unless everyone gets a 50% pay rise this year there is only one way this can happen!

Why are they talking the market down? surely this means everything is okay in the housing market? the boom times are back? Maybe the Nationwide don't want to give the BofE an excuse to raise rates.

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Guest Riser

Quite right

0.38%

They think everyone is stupid.

The higher End properties are selling pushing up the HPI causing distortion of the figure, note that this can and is happening now in a falling market,

HPI increasing whilst underlying HPI falling, interesting.

Only when the low end sales increase will we start to see the true extent of the falls, this will suck some FTB's into the market who will be buying at lower prices and hence will show in the figures at a later date.

Is it called a sucker rally or something like that?

edit = When does the SA year start and end ? does anyone know, I think this needs a closer look

Here you go Consa, as you say most of last months increase was seasonal adjustment, nex month will hardly have any B)

Nationwide Seasonal Adustment

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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