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Elizabeth

Globally Warmed Landscape Map

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Totally on topic since its a long term value issue! Does any one know where I can get hold of a globally warmed landscape map. I know TTRTR has got some firm ideas on this in London, but I am wondering about the coast. Has any eco-geeko done the definitive map yet? If not, its only a matter of time, but I would really like to see it now and I have done a search without results.

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Upload the data and I can do you one..

Thanks, I'm not a scientist - just a mug punter who doesn't really want to be drowned at home (I have had awful dreams about the sea washing into my house (which always has a very nice full glass pane front and a patio - in my dreams!!!) since I was a kid! It always washes away the potted plants!!!) As such I don't have the data. Do you do maps per se? If I found out how much the seas are going to rise by a particular date would that be enough???

Edited by Elizabeth

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Average sea level rise per year is approx. 1 mm. The Dutch (who have been monitoring sea level for longer than anyone, for very good reason!) have found no evidence to support a recent change in this rate. More significant is the post-glacial rebound. During the recent glacial period (approx. 10,000 years ago), Scotland was covered in thick glaciers. The result of this is Scotland literally sagged under the weight of the ice, and England as a direct result popped up out of the sea. The ice is long gone, but it takes time for the ground to settle again. As a result, the entire South of England is gradually sinking back into the sea. The effect in England is around 2mm/year. Scotland is rising at around 3mm/year.

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Guest growl

Went shopping in Salisbury today. I didn't wrap up because, its just so mild. A light sued jacet and halterneck top. That was it. Actually went to get a new ski-ing jacket for the winter holiday. By the time I got to the shops I was roasting. I cannot believe how warm it was and this was approaching five the sky was even getting dim. When I came out of the shop though, I ended up wearing the ski jacket, because we had such a down pour, torrential rain producing little rivers aound the market place.

But its been getting like this for a few years, around here. Really warm in October/November and the odd downpour of rain so much that it causes flooding. The humidity aswell.

We've started to joke around here, that at the end of summer we enter the rainy season. Its getting like the tropics. B)

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Went shopping in Salisbury today. I didn't wrap up because, its just so mild. A light sued jacet and halterneck top. That was it. Actually went to get a new ski-ing jacket for the winter holiday. By the time I got to the shops I was roasting. I cannot believe how warm it was and this was approaching five the sky was even getting dim. When I came out of the shop though, I ended up wearing the ski jacket, because we had such a down pour, torrential rain producing little rivers aound the market place.

But its been getting like this for a few years, around here. Really warm in October/November and the odd downpour of rain so much that it causes flooding. The humidity aswell.

We've started to joke around here, that at the end of summer we enter the rainy season. Its getting like the tropics. B)

so many people, from all over the country, of every age group, are saying similar things. Yes it may be anecdotal, and there may be "studies" that poopoo the causes or the effects... but (for example) I cannot remember a genuinely cold winter since 1996. Mind you, there's lots I can't remember about the last 10 years! ;)

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Guest Bart of Darkness
As a result, the entire South of England is gradually sinking back into the sea. The effect in England is around 2mm/year. Scotland is rising at around 3mm/year.

No wonder the Scottish property market is doing so well!

I see from the maps that even an 84m rise would not flood my neck of the woods (not really surprising, I'm about 700 feet above sea level).

Trouble is it'd be a full-time job fighting off roving bands of dispossessed lowlanders trying to stake a claim. ;)

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If you zoom in really close no the 84m rise map – look just left and up from Norwich you will see 2 green pixels left – I’m going to buy one of those – anyone want the other one – it’s nice to have nice neighbours

Got to go now and fill my car up with tins of beans and other supplies – then off to get a gun to protect my pixel

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Guest Bart of Darkness
then off to get a gun to protect my pixel

I'd reccomend the BFG from Doom, that certainly protected my pixels in that game!

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If you are worried about globle warming, I wouldn't count on the UK flooding. I would worry more about an ice age.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0130-11.htm

This is much more likely than flooding. I've read a number of articles on this and the odds of this happening in the next four decades are apparently between 1 in 2 and 1 in 5.

We think that we are immune to the global upheavals of the past because of our modern technology and stable political situation, that is total BS. We are lucky, that's all. Britain is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and could quite literally cease to exist as an inhabitable land in a very short space of time. You wouldn't get £10 for a five storey house in kensington if the Gulf Stream shut down, and since it has shut down on a regular basis in the past, it is guarenteed to do so in the future. You wouldn't get a 'Day after Tommorrow' scenario, but within two years our climate would be the same as Labrador, which lies on the same latitude as us.

People think you're wacky when you say that kind of stuff, but it is scientific fact, and global warming has the potential to cause this. All these southerly winds we are getting are going straight up to Scandinavia and across to Siberia. The Tundra there is melting and the water flows into the Arctic, accelerating the dilution of the saltiness that drives the global conveyer belt behind the Gulf Stream. It could shut down next week, and nothing we could do would switch it back on...no Bruce Willis inspired ideas.

I know where one of the best places on the earth to move to in such an instance. There are many places that will become uninhabitable. Northern Europe and the East coast of the states down to Virginia will be as cold as here. The Med, the Mexican Gulf and most of southern Asia will become desert regions as the monsoons would stop. Africa and South America would become hot property, and you could guarentee that the US and European governments would exert their military might and try recolonisation.

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Guest Guy_Montag

This is much more likely than flooding. I've read a number of articles on this and the odds of this happening in the next four decades are apparently between 1 in 2 and 1 in 5.

We think that we are immune to the global upheavals of the past because of our modern technology and stable political situation, that is total BS. We are lucky, that's all. Britain is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and could quite literally cease to exist as an inhabitable land in a very short space of time. You wouldn't get £10 for a five storey house in kensington if the Gulf Stream shut down, and since it has shut down on a regular basis in the past, it is guarenteed to do so in the future. You wouldn't get a 'Day after Tommorrow' scenario, but within two years our climate would be the same as Labrador, which lies on the same latitude as us.

People think you're wacky when you say that kind of stuff, but it is scientific fact, and global warming has the potential to cause this. All these southerly winds we are getting are going straight up to Scandinavia and across to Siberia. The Tundra there is melting and the water flows into the Arctic, accelerating the dilution of the saltiness that drives the global conveyer belt behind the Gulf Stream. It could shut down next week, and nothing we could do would switch it back on...no Bruce Willis inspired ideas.

I :) know where one of the best places on the earth to move to in such an instance. There are many places that will become uninhabitable. Northern Europe and the East coast of the states down to Virginia will be as cold as here. The Med, the Mexican Gulf and most of southern Asia will become desert regions as the monsoons would stop. Africa and South America would become hot property, and you could guarentee that the US and European governments would exert their military might and try recolonisation.

As one of my colleagues pointed out, Europe could cope, there would be mass migration from the northern half down to the Med, there would be significant disruption, a lot of people would become rich and/or poor exploiting or being exploited. The real problem would be in areas without the infrastructure to cope, where millions would die.

Me, I'd just take to living in an igloo & hunting reindeer & bunnies. I quite like the cold. :)

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Absolutely brilliant. Thanks. Worst case scenario Manchester is looking like a really cheery little seaside town!

That 84m rise is the worst-case scenario in several thousand years' time. The East Antarctic ice sheet has been stable for millions of years, and there is no possibility of it melting within anyone's lifetime. At present, I believe it's growing a bit, as snowfall in Antarctica (the driest continent) is increasing.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I know where one of the best places on the earth to move to in such an instance. There are many places that will become uninhabitable. Northern Europe and the East coast of the states down to Virginia will be as cold as here. The Med, the Mexican Gulf and most of southern Asia will become desert regions as the monsoons would stop. Africa and South America would become hot property, and you could guarentee that the US and European governments would exert their military might and try recolonisation.

Reminds me of the John Christopher book, The World in Winter.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0...8811513-1346833

As I recall, the main characters are caught out by a currency freeze as they plan to emigrate to Africa, rendering them paupers. Good read, but not quite as memorable as The Death of Grass.

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For the gulf stream to shut down we need three conditions:

1. Break down of the thermohaline circulation (possibly, but unlikely)

2. The wind to stop blowing (very unlikely)

3. The earth to stop turning (very very unlikely indeed, and if it did happen, I think we would have more to be concerned about than the gulf stream stopping)

Source: Carl Wunsch, letter to Nature scientific journal

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For the gulf stream to shut down we need three conditions:

1. Break down of the thermohaline circulation (possibly, but unlikely)

2. The wind to stop blowing (very unlikely)

3. The earth to stop turning (very very unlikely indeed, and if it did happen, I think we would have more to be concerned about than the gulf stream stopping)

Source: Carl Wunsch, letter to Nature scientific journal

How does that fit in with the claims that the "gulf stream has stopped before"? Are they talking about something different (which is often the case in these matters)?

Peter.

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How does that fit in with the claims that the "gulf stream has stopped before"? Are they talking about something different (which is often the case in these matters)?

Peter.

Gulf stream is though to have “stopped” a number of times temporarily towards the end of the last ice as a consequence of North American Ice cap meltwater draining into St lawrence/Gulf of Newfoundland instead of mississipi basin/Gulf of mexico. i.e Milankovich-Kroll Cycles caused the warming that began to reduce the Ice caps causing the ice edge across North America to retreat northwards – when the edge reached great lakes area meltwater was able to “flood” the north atlantic.

Crucuially this water although cold was also fresh – i.e not salty and so was less dense than the sea water over which it flowed. It was unable to sink and as thermohaline circulation is driven by cold “dense salty” seawater sinking - the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic shut down. Evidence for the meltwater influx is found at the bottom of the North Atlantic in large rocks that are deposited in seafloor sediments that are interpreted as rocks from North America that were scooped up in glaciers and then drifted out over sea within/at the base of Icebergs and sank as the bergs melted.

Sequences of these rocks can be dated by dating the sediments they are contained in – they are known as Heinrich events. And there were though to have been at least 6 of them at the end of the last ice age. These shutdowns of the Gulf Stream ( temporary? Care should be takenwith terms like this – geologists have no qualms about talking in terms of 1000s or millions of years as temporary – it depends on your frame of reference.) would have indeed deprived NW europe of a large energy source and were though to have caused at least one readvance of Ice southwards across UK.

One bloke using beetle species frequencies from peat bogs as a surrogate for temperature – along with pollen compositions reckons that the period of time it took for the 12C sea temperature isotherm to move from the latitude of Western Ireland to Southern Portugal was less then 50yrs – and possibly less than 10yrs.

It’s thought that man made global warming would generate a similar process by “rapidly” melting much of the remaining arctic ice cap and so also overwhelming this thermhaline pump prompting a “temporary” return to ice cap conditions across NW europe. There is some evidence from UK Scientists working for DAFs (fisgery resarch) that deepwater thermohaline circulation between faeros and Shetland is slowing down and may be an indicator that this process is under way.

Of course the amount of CO2 driven warming will eventually overwhelm this ice readvance – but I have not seen anything that has attempted to predict whether it would take months/years/decades/millenia.

Reading about this stuff used to be quite easy – but there’s been a fair amount of un peer reviewed well spun articles flying around recently.

HTH - I must confess though that I’m about 2yrs out of date on this stuff.

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Gulf stream is though to have “stopped” a number of times temporarily towards the end of the last ice

....

Yes, that's the sort of stuff I've heard. However, Carl Wunsch in the URL in this thread seems to be saying that this couldn't happen. I seem to have heard of Carl Wunsch, and since he seems to work at MIT, and it was a letter to Nature, I imagine that he probably has a good idea about what he's saying. So, I can't square the two positions, which leads me to think that I'm misunderstanding something, or that they're talking about slightly different things, or....

Peter.

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More Arctic Warming

The extent of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is now at its lowest level in

more than a century, and many scientists believe that an ice-free Arctic Ocean

could become a reality well before the century is up. News about the nearby

continents is alarming as well. In a Report in the 28 Oct 2005 *Science*,

Chapin et al. (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/310/5748/657)

presented evidence that warming on the landmasses of the Arctic may also be

accelerating. Field data from arctic Alaska show that changes in summer

albedo -- the reflectivity of the surface to sunlight -- contribute

substantially to the warming trends. Atmospheric warming has caused longer

snow-free seasons in the Arctic . And because there is less snow cover to

reflect sunlight, solar radiation is increasingly being absorbed by darker

shrubs, trees, and soil, heating up the ground and the air above. These

changes are contributing as much to Arctic warming as rising greenhouse gas

levels and have the potential to amplify surface temperature two to seven

times. As noted in an accompanying Perspective by J. A. Foley

(http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/310/5748/627), these results will

need to be more fully incorporated into models of future climate change.

From Science Roundup - the monthly review of Science highlights for AAAS

members.

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For the gulf stream to shut down we need three conditions:

1. Break down of the thermohaline circulation (possibly, but unlikely)

2. The wind to stop blowing (very unlikely)

3. The earth to stop turning (very very unlikely indeed, and if it did happen, I think we would have more to be concerned about than the gulf stream stopping)

Source: Carl Wunsch, letter to Nature scientific journal

This appears to be true. The Gulf Stream is a predominantly wind-driven current. Unfortunately, it's not actually the Gulf Stream that delivers most of the extra heat to northern Europe, it's the North Atlantic Drift, which comes out of the Gulf Stream and goes much further north. And the North Atlantic Drift is largely driven by the thermohaline circulation, can shut down, and historically has shut down from time to time. Colloquial usage refers to the combined system of the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Drift as just the Gulf Stream, which is the source of the confusion.

See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=159 -- for example.

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Yes, that's the sort of stuff I've heard. However, Carl Wunsch in the URL in this thread seems to be saying that this couldn't happen. I seem to have heard of Carl Wunsch, and since he seems to work at MIT, and it was a letter to Nature, I imagine that he probably has a good idea about what he's saying. So, I can't square the two positions, which leads me to think that I'm misunderstanding something, or that they're talking about slightly different things, or....

Peter.

have a look here

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.html

this bit above the second diagram is relevant

"Near-surface currents: these are required to close the flow. In the Atlantic, the surface currents compensating the outflow of NADW range from the Benguela Current off South Africa via Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current into the Nordic Seas off Scandinavia (Fig. 2). (Note that the Gulf Stream is primarily a wind-driven current, as part of the subtropical gyre circulation. The thermohaline circulation contributes only roughly 20% to the Gulf Stream flow.)"

my bold type

I've skipped through some of Munsch papers - this is my (most likely flawed interpretation) he seems to argue that not enough attention is paid to the driving of ocean currents by mechanical means i.e large rotary motions are set up in the oceans (and indeed atmosphere) as a consequence of the earths rotation, and ocean currents are also very strongly influenced by the strength of the wind acting on them. This is all fair enough - difference opens between himself and the mainstream where he claims in one paper that as it was likely to be more windy during last Ice Age maximum - then gulf stream would have been stronger - he's right if you just consider winds only - but - and I'm just guessing here - the increased component due to wind strength would have to be stronger than the magnitude of the reducing componenet due to thermohaline circulation. His problem is I think I'm right in saying that there's a fair body of data about Pre Holocene deep water temperatures - inferred from Oxygen isotope data in planktonic fossils which does show a deep water cooling - i.e stratification due (presumably) to a reduction in flow of warm (dense) water from the surface. What he's saying isn't wrong - but doesnt mean ThermoHalineCollapse collapse can't happen er....I Think :-)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


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