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dryrot

Pics From Dubai

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My main question is why would you go on a holiday to Dubai?

Much better destinations out there to go for a holiday.

Having been there I cannot understand why anyone would chose Dubai for a holiday over a nice part of Spain, Greece, or Italy. As a place to work it beats most parts of the middle east apart from living costs (mainly housing) but that is a different story.

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Abu Dhabi, which is by far the richest Emirate, has enough reserves at current production has another 97 years left. Not something I would be overly worried about. Plus if the wells do run dry I cant imagine anywhere will be particularly pleasant to live.

Dubai on the other hand makes most of its money from tourism and financial services, oil revenue only plays a minor part now.

Don't know why people get so defensive and riled up about the place. It is great out here, no taxes, lots to do, year long sunshine and fantastic bars and nightclubs. Cheap petrol (last time I filled the tank it cost AED 70, so about £11), cheap and abundant food and a brand of conservative Islam that has a very much live and let live attitude. And they have the death penalty. Whats not to like?

1. Based on extremely dubious reserve figures

2. At current rates - extrapolate out that production growth and see what happens to those reserves ;)

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I have not stayed at the Grosvenor house, I did recently stay at the Hilton Jumeriah Residences in August which was fantastic, right on The Walk (a 2km strip of shops, cafes and restaurants) with a private beach and huge rooms. We had a 4 bedroom apartment on the 26th floor there with views across to the Palm. If you are staying on the walk I can recommend a cafe called Burger Fuel, fantastic burgers and great on a Thu/Fri night sitting outside watching the procession of Lambos, Ferraris and Rolls Royces full of locals cruising down the street. Tacky but great fun.

How do you find the air pollution, admittedly not as bad as Saudi but still pretty awful compared to the UK / Australia (where I am at present)

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I go to Dubai fairly regularly for business (petrochemicals) and I could probably live there if I were single, but not a chance with fiancee, cat and dog.

I find the place fairly soulless, very expensive and quite "mercenary". I actually got offered a job there but I agreed instead that I would travel there as and when. Call me a fool, but I prefer the chilly and damp North East of England to the desert.

That said, Dubai has changed a lot in the last few years. It's less of a gold-rush town and the property prices collapse has helped a great deal.

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Thing is we have a fairly decent climate and *some* natural resources. For example plenty of water, highly productive arable land, and some ores/minerals. If push comes to shove we can do a 'dig for victory'. It would not be pleasant or fun but I think we could manage it.

The UAE has a couple oasis, natural gas, oil, and sand. There's a reason it's population was less than 100K 50 years ago. Without oil/gas with its climate all its people can do is starve.

I think if the oil does stop pumping we will all be screwed!! Watch Michael Ruppert : Collapse. I don't agree with all that has been said in the film, but a lot of it does makes sence which is frightening.

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I think if the oil does stop pumping we will all be screwed!! Watch Michael Ruppert : Collapse. I don't agree with all that has been said in the film, but a lot of it does makes sence which is frightening.

Yeh but when that sh!t hits I'd rather have a bolthole in blighty than the sh!t end of the Arabian peninsula, like someone else said there's a reason the population was naff all until the oil.

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Yeh but when that sh!t hits I'd rather have a bolthole in blighty than the sh!t end of the Arabian peninsula, like someone else said there's a reason the population was naff all until the oil.

Cheap energy (oil and others) has been allowing the population to rise throughout the world. No cheap energy will cause massive shocks around the world. The population of the UK pre-cheap energy (1801 census) was around 10m, and the population 1901 (pre-mass use of oil) was just over 30m. If you are a sensationalist given those figures you have a 17% or a 50% of survival. Of course I don't believe that cheap energy would stop over night, but if it did stop over night don't think we wouldn't be screwed in the UK - the human population would drop like a stone.

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Cheap energy (oil and others) has been allowing the population to rise throughout the world. No cheap energy will cause massive shocks around the world. The population of the UK pre-cheap energy (1801 census) was around 10m, and the population 1901 (pre-mass use of oil) was just over 30m. If you are a sensationalist given those figures you have a 17% or a 50% of survival. Of course I don't believe that cheap energy would stop over night, but if it did stop over night don't think we wouldn't be screwed in the UK - the human population would drop like a stone.

Thread is getting a bit TFH :)

But we need energy for fertiliser creation... w/o fertiliser to create wheat, corn, soya and rice (the staple calories for most of homo sapines today) we will be challenged. "The Omnivores Dilemma", anyone?

"Nitrogen is one of the most important elements in fertilisers. In the most common method, the Haber-Bosch process, hydrogen is combined with nitrogen to form ammonia. It requires high temperatures and strong atmospheric pressure, therefore a great deal of energy. The nitrogen is taken from the atmosphere while the hydrogen is obtained from natural gas. The process became economical in the 1920s and since then, fertilisers have become indispensable. Worldwide use of commercial fertiliser more than doubled between the late 1960s and early 1980s.

"

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1. Based on extremely dubious reserve figures

2. At current rates - extrapolate out that production growth and see what happens to those reserves ;)

That is not including any new discoveries but I guess projections like this are hugely inaccurate. For instance Citigroup just released a report on KSA saying that at the current rate of production and usage they would become net oil importers by 2030!

How do you find the air pollution, admittedly not as bad as Saudi but still pretty awful compared to the UK / Australia (where I am at present)

I cant say I ever notice the air pollution. Is so hot at the minute cant say I go out walking much but when I do the air seems OK. Cant compare it to back in my village in the UK though.

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Cheap energy (oil and others) has been allowing the population to rise throughout the world. No cheap energy will cause massive shocks around the world. The population of the UK pre-cheap energy (1801 census) was around 10m, and the population 1901 (pre-mass use of oil) was just over 30m. If you are a sensationalist given those figures you have a 17% or a 50% of survival. Of course I don't believe that cheap energy would stop over night, but if it did stop over night don't think we wouldn't be screwed in the UK - the human population would drop like a stone.

Who needs it to stop overnight, as production cannot meet demand prices rise, I'd rather be stuck on a temperate island with the ability to grow my own than in a desert hell hole, particularly when the public desire to restrict what little natural resources are available to those already here kicks in and HMG obliges by saying sorry expats but you can't come back.

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Who needs it to stop overnight, as production cannot meet demand prices rise, I'd rather be stuck on a temperate island with the ability to grow my own than in a desert hell hole, particularly when the public desire to restrict what little natural resources are available to those already here kicks in and HMG obliges by saying sorry expats but you can't come back.

Is this likely to happen, realistically, in our lifetime? Do you really believe that?

I know planning for the future is important but planning your future based on some Fallout 3 / Children of Men / Borderlands type of scenario takes the biscuit. Or do you picture the future without oil to be one where everyone becomes farmers, growing their own? Somehow I cant imagine the packs of feral youths from the local council thunderdome walking past your plot, desperate for a carrot only for their ring leader to say 'We cant touch those, they belong to Mr Zebbedee'.

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Is this likely to happen, realistically, in our lifetime? Do you really believe that?

I know planning for the future is important but planning your future based on some Fallout 3 / Children of Men / Borderlands type of scenario takes the biscuit. Or do you picture the future without oil to be one where everyone becomes farmers, growing their own? Somehow I cant imagine the packs of feral youths from the local council thunderdome walking past your plot, desperate for a carrot only for their ring leader to say 'We cant touch those, they belong to Mr Zebbedee'.

Who cares if it's likely to happen, if all is well I'm still on a temperate isle rather than stuck in hell hole dubai and if it does go all mad max I'd reckon my chances are poor to middling here and naff all there. Whats not to like :rolleyes:

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A bigger worry for Dubai than depleted oil is the collapse of the Saudi regime (something which could easily happen in our lifetime, perhaps within the next few years). The Saudi regime is hated universally throughout the Muslim world (google destruction of mecca) and internally its hated by its large and oppressed Shia minority, hardline bin ladenite types for its subservience to US plus by the Sufi included Muslims who are forced to practice state sponsored wahabism. It's only a matter of time the young Saudi state goes pop and when that explodes the US/Saudi axis that all other Gulf states are slavishly tied to will also go down. Bahrain has a Shia majority which came very close to throwing out the ruling Sunni clique before being saved by Saudi intervention and the UAE has an ongoing bitter dispute with Iran over the 'three Islands'. When the US/Saudi marriage of convenience turns to smoke this region will change beyond recognition and the kingpins will once again be the technically and militarily superior Persians (hence why the intense focus to give them a bloody nose in Damascus). When the time comes holding an asset in sunny and prosperous Dubai will be very little consolation when the al-Makhtoums are themselves on the next plane out.

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Cheap energy (oil and others) has been allowing the population to rise throughout the world. No cheap energy will cause massive shocks around the world. The population of the UK pre-cheap energy (1801 census) was around 10m, and the population 1901 (pre-mass use of oil) was just over 30m. If you are a sensationalist given those figures you have a 17% or a 50% of survival. Of course I don't believe that cheap energy would stop over night, but if it did stop over night don't think we wouldn't be screwed in the UK - the human population would drop like a stone.

If you look at it that way UAE's population before oil was discovered was 80k, its now about 8 million. So their survival rate under similar metrics would be ~1%.

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....fantastic burgers and great on a Thu/Fri night sitting outside watching the procession of Lambos, Ferraris and Rolls Royces full of locals cruising down the street. Tacky but great fun.

You must accept that isn't everyone's idea of a good time. If it were, Rio / Mumbai street urchins would be aspirational.

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All the expats here have a plan in mind. Nobody is here for the long haul (which is impossible anyway as it is virtually impossible to get citizenship even if you wanted to). Most people here are making hay while the sun (literally shines). Everyone I have spoken to has 5/10 year plans to make (and save) as much money as possible (wages here are generally 2.5 to 3 times higher than the equivalent job in the UK) then go back home, buy a house (or pay off their mortgage) or for a few saddos retire to China with their Chinese brides. Looking at the UK, with high taxes, poor weather and crime filled society it is not 'hell on earth' but actually a great way to while away a few years whilst setting yourself up financially for life.

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You must accept that isn't everyone's idea of a good time. If it were, Rio / Mumbai street urchins would be aspirational.

ha yes but life is full of experiences. Is quite something to see but jars against my HPC baked bean and toilet roll hoarding instincts. Not sustainable by any means but something to see whilst you are here. Some peoples idea of hell but I find it very interesting in a 'watching a car crash' type of way.

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Is this likely to happen, realistically, in our lifetime? Do you really believe that?

I know planning for the future is important but planning your future based on some Fallout 3 / Children of Men / Borderlands type of scenario takes the biscuit. Or do you picture the future without oil to be one where everyone becomes farmers, growing their own? Somehow I cant imagine the packs of feral youths from the local council thunderdome walking past your plot, desperate for a carrot only for their ring leader to say 'We cant touch those, they belong to Mr Zebbedee'.

There's quite a few people who believe its not going to be that long in to the future when it happens. World oil production peaked in 2005 and despite continued high prices world oil production has not passed that peak. We do appear to be bumping along the ceiling in terms of the amount of oil we can extract.

If your interested in this topic visit http://www.theoildrum.com

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All the expats here have a plan in mind. Nobody is here for the long haul (which is impossible anyway as it is virtually impossible to get citizenship even if you wanted to). Most people here are making hay while the sun (literally shines). Everyone I have spoken to has 5/10 year plans to make (and save) as much money as possible (wages here are generally 2.5 to 3 times higher than the equivalent job in the UK) then go back home, buy a house (or pay off their mortgage) or for a few saddos retire to China with their Chinese brides. Looking at the UK, with high taxes, poor weather and crime filled society it is not 'hell on earth' but actually a great way to while away a few years whilst setting yourself up financially for life.

That I can understand - and we enjoyed our week away there BTW. Also 200 Silk Cut and 110 Villiger Export was ~£40. Would have been £100+ in UK.

As OP I was just amazed at the Palm madness that has receded... How many of the Palm apartments are still occupied/paying the mortgage? You would have to cut and run.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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