Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Boom'n'Bust

Mortgage Approvals Highest In A Year In September

Recommended Posts

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...OE-MORTGAGE.xml

Mortgage approvals highest in a year in September

The lack of interest in this important and rather bullish HP figure seems to suggest the bears on this site would rather concentrate on odd bits of hand picked anecdotal evidence to justify their theorey of a huge crash. Rather it's now starting to look as if consumer confidence is returning, at least in some degree.

"Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The number of home loans approved by U.K. mortgage lenders reached the highest in 15 months in September, suggesting the $6 trillion housing market may be recovering from a yearlong slowdown.

Approvals totaled 107,000 when adjusted for seasonal swings, the most since June 2004 and more than the six-month average of 98,000, the Bank of England said in London today. The number for August was revised down to 106,000 from 107,000.

The figures signal demand for property may have picked up since the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to 4.5 percent in August, although whether this translates to gains in house prices remains to be seen. Recent reports have suggested property values have stabilized, with annual rates of inflation heading towards zero from around 20 percent in mid 2004.

``Housing activity certainly has come back after last year's big falls,'' said Ian Stewart, chief European economist at Merrill Lynch in London.

Edited by ILBB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The lack of interest in this important and rather bullish HP figure seems to suggest the bears on this site would rather concentrate on odd bits of hand picked anecdotal evidence to justify their theorey of a huge crash. Rather it's now starting to look as if consumer confidence is returning, at least in some degree.

"Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The number of home loans approved by U.K. mortgage lenders reached the highest in 15 months in September, suggesting the $6 trillion housing market may be recovering from a yearlong slowdown.

Approvals totaled 107,000 when adjusted for seasonal swings, the most since June 2004 and more than the six-month average of 98,000, the Bank of England said in London today. The number for August was revised down to 106,000 from 107,000.

The figures signal demand for property may have picked up since the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to 4.5 percent in August, although whether this translates to gains in house prices remains to be seen. Recent reports have suggested property values have stabilized, with annual rates of inflation heading towards zero from around 20 percent in mid 2004.

``Housing activity certainly has come back after last year's big falls,'' said Ian Stewart, chief European economist at Merrill Lynch in London.

It is awful..

The august drop in interst rates and the related press that they would continue to drop suprised many here.

Economically it was clearly impossible and higher interest rates caould not them be avoided.

Many of these were fixed rate re-mortgage.

But we do not pretend that house prices will drop because everyone sees it even if they are told differently..

We say they will because the economy says they will..

Look at the high street.. the struggling pound.. the huge personal debt.. the crisis of people going bankrupt and also having their houses repossesed..

look at all that and ask yourself "Does it look like it is working...?"

now imagine what would happen if house prices stayed where they are..

low interest rates crippling the pound.. debt levels killing people..

no one able to shop...

Ask youself if you can see it working.. then come back..

people buying does not fix the problem.. the problem is that everyone who buys makes the problem worse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the reasons for the upturn are..

drop in interest rates and possibility of lower still

SIPPs give away

it hasn't crashed..

I believe this upturn will lead to a higher prices as people breathe a sigh of relief and start spending again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

drop in interest rates and possibility of lower still

SIPPs give away

it hasn't crashed..

I believe this upturn will lead to a higher prices as people breathe a sigh of relief and start spending again.

I agree with the three reasons you state but there is no way it's going to be a boom. The sort of prices in the housing market are unsustainable for the medium term, and that has been clear for a few years now.

I still think we need some Interest Rate rises to change sentiment dramatically. Hopefully the BoE's hand will eventually be forced when it becomes clear that every other bank in the world is raising rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

I wonder if it's a bad sign for the housing market - the fact that there's an increasing number of newbie bulls on this site? Could this be a manifestation of their desparation?

We've just had a good six months of peace and quiet, as well!

:rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the reasons for the upturn are..

drop in interest rates and possibility of lower still

SIPPs give away

it hasn't crashed..

I believe this upturn will lead to a higher prices as people breathe a sigh of relief and start spending again.

They can't afford to.

The economy is purely debt driven..

and if you have any ideas how this can be sustained.. don't tell us here..

Tell gordon..

Eventually any economy driven by only debt goes pop..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

I believe this upturn will lead to a higher prices as people breathe a sigh of relief and start spending again.

Sigh of relief?

What from exactly? I thought it was "stablizing" and we'd achieved a "soft landing"?

:blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is NO CHANCE IN HELL of a house price crash!

Why are you SHOUTING? Hoping that the volume will improve the argument? Why is there 'no chance in hell' of a reduction in house prices in the short/medium term?

p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sigh of relief?

What from exactly? I thought it was "stablizing" and we'd achieved a "soft landing"?

:blink:

I think a lot of people were scared that prices were going to fall significantly..

I agree that prices can not keep going up and the whole thing is mad but I think we still have a way to go.. I am amazed people are happy to keep borrowing more and more and that banks are letting them but that is what is happening..

A couple of interest rate rises and the removal of the SIPPs thing would change things back again.

I was viewing more houses over the weekend and the estate agents are rushed off their feet.. more viewings requests then they can cope with..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

I think a lot of people were scared that prices were going to fall significantly..

I think a lot of people have made no effort to learn from history. But then, perhaps they haven't had their expectations managed appropriately with respect to the house price crash issue.

I agree with you about home owners feeling scared, I've seen some of this, but they seem to be under the impression that when bad stuff happens it all happens in the space of six months. When we all know that it doesn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think a lot of people have made no effort to learn from history. But then, perhaps they haven't had their expectations managed appropriately with respect to the house price crash issue.

I agree with you about home owners feeling scared, I've seen some of this, but they seem to be under the impression that when bad stuff happens it all happens in the space of six months. When we all know that it doesn't.

When will people realise that to micro comment on every 'news release' as if it were fact is self defeating. The BBC is terrible for this, with each new survey being portrayed as fact rather than what it is; - speculation.

The economy is going down hill. Fact.

The rolling annual rate of HPI is virtually at zero. Fact

The level of house repossessions is increasing very quickly. Fact

This will not suddenly turn around in a couple of months. All cycles take time to turn around. This cycle has a long way to go down, before the bottom is reached. Just because a couple of surveys say things appear brighter, does not mean the cycle has bottomed. Hold on to your hats; do not buy, but rent and wait. It will happen. :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly and the young 'uns that haven't been here before must learn to be patient. Unlike stocks and shares, property values do not yoyo over night. It takes time baby!

Ask yourself, how long has this boom been going on and from that you should be able to deduce how long the slump is gonna last. Annoying I know but for those resisting the pressure to buy, you should take pride in the fact that you've acquired the knowledge before most of your peers.

Hi,

Yes, to the young 'uns, look at the old press releases and commentary from the last crash that is here on the site. We were told from 1988-1991 that everything was hunky dory and soft landing. Years later, we saw that prices were in freefall. We were fibbed to!

Also look at the rise and fall of graphs. Thay do not go up in a perfectly smooth curve or line and down the same way. They are jagged, little peaks and troughs in a general up or down overall direction. Also, they do not build up over 7-9 years and then suddenly collapse in a few months, downward in a perfectly linear movement. What is the problem with this? Why does it continually need to be pointed out in every press release. Sure, every negatve market report that supports the general trend should be used as mounting eveidence but just like the odd release of anti HPC news, it isn't going to collapse in a few months. That is not the way HPC plays out.

The fundementals are in place. If something changes, then HPC could be avoided but as things stand, that is defintely not the case, the kind of economic rebound or miracle that would be needed at this stage has probably never been witnessed before in the UK. Consumer indebteness at record levels, government and trade finances in massive decline and in massive breach of EU budget regulations, sterling under pressure, economic growth slumping, inflation way over long term trends, most major economies raising rates (UK will have to follow), sharp percentile rise in repocessions. People do not stop buying and selling houses, even if there was a sharp drop tomorrow, there would still be market activity. Go look at the way the last corrections panned out and their resemblence to our current situation, go look at the current situation in other debt laiden HPI economies like Australia, NZ, Holland, Spain, US. Finnally, go look at the commentary of non VI sources, i.e., not EA's, mortgage lenders or anyone like BoE or others under the thumb of NuLab. Some regularly get posted here. Afraid, patience is the order of the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was approved for a mortgage in September but won't be acting on it. I needed confirmation from my mortgage company before putting a very low offer (which wasn't accepted).

Decided to wait until next year now and see what happens.

Is there any way you can see how many of these approvals are actually taken up ? That would show a clearer picture, I think.

Buckers

yes, wait for the land registry numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Charlie The Tramp

The fundementals are in place. If something changes, then HPC could be avoided but as things stand, that is defintely not the case, the kind of economic rebound or miracle that would be needed at this stage has probably never been witnessed before in the UK. Consumer indebteness at record levels, government and trade finances in massive decline and in massive breach of EU budget regulations, sterling under pressure, economic growth slumping, inflation way over long term trends, most major economies raising rates (UK will have to follow), sharp percentile rise in repocessions. People do not stop buying and selling houses, even if there was a sharp drop tomorrow, there would still be market activity. Go look at the way the last corrections panned out and their resemblence to our current situation, go look at the current situation in other debt laiden HPI economies like Australia, NZ, Holland, Spain, US. Finnally, go look at the commentary of non VI sources, i.e., not EA's, mortgage lenders or anyone like BoE or others under the thumb of NuLab. Some regularly get posted here. Afraid, patience is the order of the day.

What do you think Apollo ? Are you banking on the miracle of all miracles.

BTW great post boom_and_bust

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The economy is going down hill. Fact.

The rolling annual rate of HPI is virtually at zero. Fact

The level of house repossessions is increasing very quickly. Fact

Sound like David Brent.

Must admit the main reason I though there would be a crash was related to Mortgage Aproval figures this is a big blow for my believe in a crash. Still untill I earn £50,000 a year or emigrate I won't be able to afford a house so no point in worrying about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.