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Bored Train Driver

House Price Statistics

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Hi all,

I relatively new to the site so this may have been covered before....

I was wondering why there is so much difference in the reported Average UK House Prices from the sources on the homepage?

Why some report a monthly fall and others a rise....

Which would you consider to be the most accurate??? (If any!!!)

Cheers

BTD

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Hi BTD, and welcome.

Broadly speaking, some surveys measure asking prices, some selling prices; some claim to be seasonally adjusted, some don't; some are mix adjusted, some aren't; some are retrospective, some indicate where the market's going in the future; some are done by bodies with an interest in talking the market up, some aren't (but not many - the FT?). Take em all with a pinch of salt.

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Bored Train Driver,

Here's a few thoughts.

Some are just snapshots of mortgage lenders' books - regionally biased and reflecting changes in risk profile for different areas as time goes on - Halifax upped their London loan limits a good while ago for example. The lenders' books will obviously only reflecet the normal range of proeprties for which it is normal to have a mortgage - super-high value houses won't be on these books at all.

Land reg - should be fairly reflective of every house sold, even then there are potential discrepancies say if the main market is slack and a larger proportion of new build is being sold in a period (potentially with discounts and cash deals that don't appear on the stamp duty records which could skew those numbers).

Rightmove/Hometrack - open market transactions, some developer stuff but not all so some scope for missing a segment that may be priced at a premium to the norm (they say 10% premium for new build).

Rightmove tracks original asking prices not sale prices. Rightmove and/or Hometrack may miss part of the high end market segment if say the major players in the high end market don;t advertise on Rightmove or participate in Hometrack's surveys.

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wouldnt it be great if someone just made a honest to goodness proper price survey.One that looks all over the whole uk and from all figures in a honest way.

But then im forgetting that the people that pay to keep people doing survey's like this wouldnt accept it and thus they would be stopped, after all you aint gonna pay someone to ruin your buisness ehhh.

mcdonalds wouldnt commision a survey where it's found there food makes you fat, 8/10 cats might not prefer there cat food, and a bowl of porridge has as much energy as ready brek but less sugar.

the only one i trust is the quarterly land registry figures, the rest are bull.

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the only one i trust is the quarterly land registry figures, the rest are bull.

You can trust the Land Registry's regional figures, but their national average figure is one of the least reliable ones, especially for tracking trends from quarter to quarter, as they don't mix adjust.

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Statistics are more often than not useless. Economies are driven by sentiment. As Mervyn King of the BoE said: house prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real. The wisest words spoken in the context of a housing bubble.

When enough people THINK the market is bad it is bad. Perception becomes reality. At this point in the bubble most people think its a bubble therefore it is. It just has to play itself out in the movement of prices.

That is why the EAs and VIs are investing their time in spreading positive propaganda. The use of the words "new price" which is seen more frequently on house detail sheets is a good example. In a healthy market an EA would simply say: "price reduced." But in the context of an over inflated bubble market words like "reduced," "reposession," "drastically cut" are avoided because they can change the all-important sentiment.

Take a walk down your high street and look in the window of any EA. They will be empty but all the EAs will have a phone to their ear and a pen doodling on a sheet of paper. They must give the perception that the market is hot. To see EAs sitting around drinking tea and looking bored would spook the market.

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Take a walk down your high street and look in the window of any EA. They will be empty but all the EAs will have a phone to their ear and a pen doodling on a sheet of paper. [Realistbear]

They may be booking an appointment with a claimant adviser at the local Jobcentre.

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welcome to the gang BTD.

best answer I can give is there are lies,damn lies and statistics.

the powers that be are very keen to try and overload our tiny little brains with a miriad of conflicting data....it's designed to confuse us and keep us placid.

if they ever told us the whole truth there would be mass panic/revolution and that's what they don't want.

a little bit of fear and confusion makes the majority of people easier to control.

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For a brief description of the various indices see 'House Buying Stats':

http://firstrung.co.uk/page.asp?pageid=HBSTATS

Thanks for the link.

The BSA, BBA, Halifax base their indices on approvals:

The BSA, comprising the UK's 63 building societies, releases seasonally adjusted monthly figures on the value of approvals.

I would imagine that many people will be having second thoughts about buying with all the talk of rising interest rates and bancrupcies. It will be interesting to see how many of the recent deals actually go to completion.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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