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roblpm

Espc 3rd Quarter Results

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Here they are .................

Not very exciting though YoY for Edinburgh down to 3.7%

Have to wait for the next one for more excitment I think!!!!!!!!

I guess this is what we would expect - real story in edinburgh is accumulation of unsold property and it will be very interesting to see what happens to the plethora of 2 bedroom flats flung up in recent years all over the city. As elsewhere there will always be a wealthy few prepared to pay over the odds for genuine quality properties.

I've noticed increasing numbers of porsche cayennes kicking around so the rich and crass are obviously still splashing the cash.

Interesting to see stirling down by 15% - and interesting to see espc portraying this as good news for ftbs - no mention of bad news for the folk who maybe bought on the basis of previous espc reports...

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Can someone explain the maths involved in this part of the report:

Edinburgh continued to show year-on-year growth, the rate of growth now stands at just below four per cent. The average property price is £176,360, compared with £169,954 for the same period last year.

Sales volume is up by just over three per cent on last year, with the total sales value rising by 0.5 per cent, from £475,020,850 last year, to £477,583,626.

If the average price is up 4 %, and sales volume is up 3% (i.e. more houses sold at a higher price) - how on earth can the total sales value only have gone up 0.5%???

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I think they make it up as they go along!

Also they haven't posted this on the website which is a bit odd. I got it by emailing them. They are just estate agents after all!!

Also..................

That report I posted has been downloaded 50 times which implies there are more people in Edinburgh on here than post. Come on let us know what you think!!!

DBT you back from honeymoon yet???

Edited by roblpm

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I've decided to get the calculator out and do my own maths on this.

total sales value from last year £475,020,850

average price last year £169,954

properties sold = 475,020,850/ 169,954 = 2795 properties

this year sales volume is up just over 3 %:

properties sold = 2795 * 1.03 = 2879 properties

this years sales value is £477,583,626

Therefore average price = £477,583,626 / 2879 = £165,885

Year on year 'growth' then is actually ((£165885/ £169954) * 100%) -100 = -2.4 %

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I think they make it up as they go along!

Also they haven't posted this on the website which is a bit odd. I got it by emailing them. They are just estate agents after all!!

Also..................

That report I posted has been downloaded 50 times which implies there are more people in Edinburgh on here than post. Come on let us know what you think!!!

Thanks for posting that, I emailed espc and got no response. I've noticed flats in Comely Bank sitting on market for ages and dropping prices. This flat : 76 comely bank ave

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=186953

which is desirable in that its main door (they usually sell quicker as there are relatively few of them) has been on the market since April.. forst it was OO175K then FP210 then FP202.500 in October and it still hasn't sold...

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As a survivor (although loser) of both Aberdeen in 86 and the UK crash a few years later I can state with 100% confidence that property prices can and do go down.

I have no doubt that what we are seeing now is exactly what we saw last time.

A couple of anecdotes re Edinburgh:

Looked at a piddly little house yesterday. Agent told me: Put on market at offers over £265k in September. "At that time we expected +30%" = £345k. No interest. Went to f/p £310 recently. Still no interest. Sellers have advised will sell for "anything that starts with a 3." £300k would represent a nominal 13% drop - - - that's IF they get £300k. Interestingly the agent was saying that potential buyers are now hesitating because "they think prices will be lower if they wait."

My landlord has served me notice. He owns 10 buy-to-let properties in Edinburgh. His bank have told him to settle some debt (incurrred through an extension on his own house) hence the sale. Before he gave me notice he came round to try and increase the rent (I refused and he accepted that.) His reason was that his property insurance was now so high (because the nominal value of the property had gone up so much.) He's offered me another of his properties - - - "the mortgage is £600 per month - - - and that's the rent." What about - - - cost of insurance, of buildings repair, of legal services, of decorating - - - -. This is a house of cards in the early stage of tumbling to the ground.

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As a survivor (although loser) of both Aberdeen in 86 and the UK crash a few years later I can state with 100% confidence that property prices can and do go down.

I have no doubt that what we are seeing now is exactly what we saw last time.

A couple of anecdotes re Edinburgh:

Looked at a piddly little house yesterday. Agent told me: Put on market at offers over £265k in September. "At that time we expected +30%" = £345k. No interest. Went to f/p £310 recently. Still no interest. Sellers have advised will sell for "anything that starts with a 3." £300k would represent a nominal 13% drop - - - that's IF they get £300k. Interestingly the agent was saying that potential buyers are now hesitating because "they think prices will be lower if they wait."

My landlord has served me notice. He owns 10 buy-to-let properties in Edinburgh. His bank have told him to settle some debt (incurrred through an extension on his own house) hence the sale. Before he gave me notice he came round to try and increase the rent (I refused and he accepted that.) His reason was that his property insurance was now so high (because the nominal value of the property had gone up so much.) He's offered me another of his properties - - - "the mortgage is £600 per month - - - and that's the rent." What about - - - cost of insurance, of buildings repair, of legal services, of decorating - - - -. This is a house of cards in the early stage of tumbling to the ground.

goodness me, does your landlord not realise that rental value is a function of supply and demand of tenants versus available properties to rent, ie not strictly related to his mortgage at all. ie if the local free-market rent for similar properties is £500/mnth then it doesn't matter one jot that his mortgage is £600. or rather £500/mnth is a better income than £0 so what is he holding out for! Guffaw! (for example)

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Guest magnoliawalls

Hopefully they will be changing the title of this press release from

- THIRD QUARTER PROPERTY STATISTICS -

SALES VOLUME AND VALUE INCREASES[/b]

:P

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well the ESPC never put the 3rd quarter results onto their website!!

Anyway round where I am in Morningside there is nothing happening at all. Most on at fixed price and nothing selling. Though i expect that is normal for this time of year. Have to see what happens in the spring.

Conflicting YoY data for Edinburgh though, Land Registers reports YoY up to 5.3% after a 6.5% rise in the last quarter. Can't say I've noticed a 6.5% rise round here.

Anyone got any ideas??

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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