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Smurf1976

Central Banks Target Housing

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http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2005/2141171.html

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand not only raised interest rates today, to 7.0%, but the statement which accompanied it (see link) makes no secret of the fact that they are trying to do something about housing.

So, the RBNZ has the housing market firmly in its' sights and has fired a shot with the threat of more to come and a pretty clear statement that they won't be cutting rates.

It's also no secret that the Fed (USA) is targeting housing in that country and has been raising interest rates every time it meets for quite some time now. And they're talking about still more rises.

With these two both moving and inflation right at the upper limit of the acceptable band the RBA (Australia) is certainly coming under pressure to raise rates too. Whether they raise or not it seems very unlikely that they are about to cut rates.

As for the BoE, the idea that they are going to cut rates is very much a case of running into the wind in view of world trends. Possible but increasingly unlikely IMO.

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The November rate cut seems to have been cancelled. I guess it's unlikely they're going to touch them before xmas (in the UK). However higher rates in the US / Oz in the new year and retailers bleating about poor sales will put them in a spot.

I still maintain that GB will do everything in his power to prevent a rate rise. Trouble is, because of the BofE's 'independance' others may have to put their careers on the line to apease him.

Tony Blair must be enjoying all this.

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The November rate cut seems to have been cancelled. I guess it's unlikely they're going to touch them before xmas (in the UK). However higher rates in the US / Oz in the new year and retailers bleating about poor sales will put them in a spot.

I still maintain that GB will do everything in his power to prevent a rate rise. Trouble is, because of the BofE's 'independance' others may have to put their careers on the line to apease him.

Tony Blair must be enjoying all this.

"Career" as in (i) future career working for or under the influence of a potential future prime minister (or, if things go sour, a potential egg on face scapegoat for HPC/recession) with a track record of having swallowed ones professional integrity for the sake of currying favour with Govt? or (ii) career as in future career with a track record as independent minded, robust and objective economist/anaylst?

On the MPC I would rather fail in my remit but have made the best decisions I could based on my view of the data etc rather than fail because I was seen as having been too close to Govt and allowed policy/favour to compromise my role.

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On the MPC I would rather fail in my remit but have made the best decisions I could based on my view of the data etc rather than fail because I was seen as having been too close to Govt and allowed policy/favour to compromise my role.

Me too. But I wouldn't like to risk being blamed for a recession. The best 'career move' would probably be to get out now. (Isn't that what somebody's just done?)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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