Nationwide "may" Report +0.3% - According To Bloomberg Article

[bubbleturbo]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...JpIE4I&refer=uk

Property prices in Britain rose 0.3 percent this month after falling 0.2 percent in September, the Nationwide may report, according to the median forecast of 16 economists. Retail sales climbed 0.7 percent after rising 0.2 percent in August, the statistics office said Oct. 20. House prices rose for the first month in four in October, a survey from Web site Rightmove.com showed on Oct. 17.

[Salsa]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...JpIE4I&refer=uk

I haven't got all the numbers - what would this make the YoY figure?

[property guru]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...JpIE4I&refer=uk

It has been black October for the bears with ODPM,Halifax, Right move and now Nationwide ALL showing a upward trend in house prices. Plus mortgage approvals at summer 2004 boom levels.

With all this positive momentum in the market now 2005 prices could well end YOY UP and we could be looking at up to 5% price growth in 2006.

Looks like the HPC has definitely been cancelled.

PG

[bubbleturbo]

It has been black October for the bears with ODPM,Halifax, Right move and now Nationwide ALL showing a upward trend in house prices. Plus mortgage approvals at summer 2004 boom levels.

With all this positive momentum in the market now 2005 prices could well end YOY UP and we could be looking at up to 5% price growth in 2006.

Looks like the HPC has definitely been cancelled.

PG

You really are the total fool everyone says you are - have you ever heard of a dead cat bounce? IF and that is a big IF, these figures are confirmed, it is just a few more idiots jumping off the proverbial cliff because they believed the VI spin and thought that rates would now be going down faster than a tarts drawers.

Now, what do you think is going to happen when the spin (as is starting to happen) sounds hollow and the idiots realise rates are going up. What when UK interest rates start to rise, which they will have to? ? ? ?

What yields then, if any at all to you parasites?

Edited October 27, 2005 by BubbleTurbo

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

You really are the total fool everyone says you are

Care in the Community gone wrong?

[bubbleturbo]

Care in the Community gone wrong?

Nah, I reckon he is just a bored EA.

Guru, go and get an education, or failing that, stick around in property for the next couple of years and learn the hard way.

There are many, many reasons to suggest the market will at best correct and at worst, crash. There are very few to suggest stagnation over the time period required for income to adjust.

As someone else said recently "The Economy will want it's money back"

[Tempest]

This is only a "may" based on an economists poll. "They" are thankfully not always right. Lets see. They are bound to have erred on the upside given the Halifax data.

Do not get too wound up on this - a 0.1/0.2/0.3 % either up or down on its own it not conclusive at this early stage of the game. The annual yoy figures are what we should watch. If you look at a graph of where those have gone over thelast 18 months you will feel better - we are simply crossing the boundary into negative territory and its a little choppy statswise.

If you look at the monthly figures in 1989/1990/1991 you will see monthly upwards aberrations in prices from time to time but the trend was and remained down (and not as fast as you might have thought but did continue for a long old while). Same again here I think.

Edited October 27, 2005 by Tempest

[property guru]

Care in the Community gone wrong?

It is interesting to see the denial phase of the bears that the HPC has been cancelled now turning to anger / abuse.

Its not my fault Halifax,ODPM,Rightmove and Nationwide all show upward trend in house prices.

Don't blame me I have always said there would not be a HPC in 2004,2005,2006.

Blame the ones on here who "promised" you a HPC and "guaranteed" you it was "inevitable".

All the evidence suggests the HPC has been cancelled.

PG

Edited October 27, 2005 by property guru

[Tip Top]

I think Nationwide will post a +'ve figure and it could be a big number i.e. 1%+

Prices round here in south Hertfordshire are definitely on the up and the Agents have started to tell vendors not to take offers.

A house we recently offered on sold for 10% over asking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It’s a mad (depressing) world.............

[Blue Peter]

Last October Nationwide announced a monthly change of 0%, yet their unadjusted price fell 1%.

October obviously carries a large seasonal adjustment.

A 0.3% sa rise would therefore probably equate to about a 0.7% fall.

What is a "seasonal adjustment" in a house price. Are there seasons for houses (apart from the various seasonal bounces, etc.)? and so what? Isn't the price paid the price paid, as it were?

Peter.

[Guest consa]

28/10 Nationwide house price index (Oct) - The two main data series on national house prices continued to diverge in September. Whilst the Nationwide reported a 0.2% decline on the month (the third such fall in the last four months), the Halifax said seasonally adjusted prices rose 1.2%, the fourth successive monthly increase. Both agreed that the annual rate of increase continued to slow – the Nationwide from 2.7% to 1.8% and the Halifax from 3.8% to 3.7% - but the figures for the third quarter told very different stories with the Nationwide suggesting prices had stalled and the Halifax indicating an acceleration (1.9% from -0.3% in Q2). However, neither series is pointing to a Capital Economics-style slump in house prices. The consensus expects the Nationwide measure to have risen by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October.

Edited October 27, 2005 by consa

[Levy process]

It has been black October for the bears with ODPM,Halifax, Right move and now Nationwide ALL showing a upward trend in house prices. Plus mortgage approvals at summer 2004 boom levels.

With all this positive momentum in the market now 2005 prices could well end YOY UP and we could be looking at up to 5% price growth in 2006.

Looks like the HPC has definitely been cancelled.

PG

That has to be the most feeble minded argument I have ever heard.

[Tempest]

I think Nationwide will post a +'ve figure and it could be a big number i.e. 1%+

Prices round here in south Hertfordshire are definitely on the up and the Agents have started to tell vendors not to take offers.

A house we recently offered on sold for 10% over asking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It’s a mad (depressing) world.............

Like this area in Hertfordshire you mean: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=17991&hl=

Someone better tell Savills to tell that seller not to take offers - its only £400,000 cheaper than last year.

[Cheston Pelvis]

If you ask me, the Nationwide and Halifax can say anything they damn well please when they go and put the following at the foot of each report:

We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk.

After all this time I'm still utterly amazed that these reports are deemed newsworthy. It doesn't matter whether prices go up or down as both the Nationwide and Halifax will shoehorn their methodology into their latest strategy for getting us further in debt. And still the masses gobble up this crap like an army of frenzied faecophiles (or scat munchers, if one is to be crude)!

So I'll tell you what... pick a number, any number - you're probably going to be right. I'm going for pi.

(Mmm... pie!)

[Edited for spelling: 'proably' indeed... Tsk. ]

Edited October 27, 2005 by Cheston Pelvis

[Tip Top]

Like this area in Hertfordshire you mean: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=17991&hl=

Someone better tell Savills to tell that seller not to take offers - its only £400,000 cheaper than last year.

If they had been greedy enough to ask for £2m does that mean it would £1m cheaper now??

I hate to admit it but prices are going up round here, estate agents are in a sickenly good mood.

We have offered 5% below on three properties and been turned away even though we are cash buyers.. I don't know if its just the interest cut or the expected SIPPS giveaway.

This maybe just my area.... but the lending figures seem to reflect what I am seeing..

Soon people will be out spending again if this continues.. might be a better Christmas the retailers are expecting.

[back to the old house]

You can argue, given the figures reported by the mortgage lenders that there is recovery in the air. I've just come back from looking through the estate agents windows in Blackpool, the first time I've looked in a while. It is noticeable that 'New to the market' properties are priced on the high side I would say, probably buoyed by the EA bleating about the 'recovering market'. Then you see the properties that have been languishing unsold for months (and I mean for the best part of a year in many cases). The numbers of 'New price' and 'Reduction' properties hits you instantly. And still they aren't selling (overpriced even now?). The impact of massive property price rises between 2001 and 2004, with no corresponding wage increase, appears to be starting to bite. Council tax is up, as are gas and electricity prices; National Insurance Contributions have been increased for the last two years (in place of ‘direct’ tax rises). All these factors, and more, now seem to be having an effect. Additionally, the lack of FTB’s due to the BTL factor and high wage/mortgage ratio must have an effect at some point, if few are moving up from the first rung the rest of the chain either slows or stops. I don’t understand how FTB properties are on the market for £90,000 when the FTB average wage will be around a 10th of this.

I’m not saying there will be a crash but there is little positive news from the economy at the moment so any reported recovery is likely to be brief.

[Realistbear]

If the repo trend is anything to go by there will be a lot of homes coming to auction soon at knock down prices:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

Mortgage repossession orders during the past three months in England and Wales were up 66% on a year ago to nearly 20,000, official figures have shown.

Part of the reason may be due to this bleak news:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4378394.stm

Thousands of UK manufacturing jobs are at risk as companies seek to cut costs, according to the CBI.

When jobs dissappear repossessions start to increase which are not healthy signs for the housing market. Like the weather we are having right now--its become a little warmer but winter is coming,

NOw is not a good time to buy a home. 2007 may be a good time to think about it.

[Tempest]

If they had been greedy enough to ask for £2m does that mean it would £1m cheaper now??

I hate to admit it but prices are going up round here, estate agents are in a sickenly good mood.

We have offered 5% below on three properties and been turned away even though we are cash buyers.. I don't know if its just the interest cut or the expected SIPPS giveaway.

This maybe just my area.... but the lending figures seem to reflect what I am seeing..

Soon people will be out spending again if this continues.. might be a better Christmas the retailers are expecting.

You can't have it both ways. Agents market at what they consider to be an achievable market value or a little above if times are good. Yes the truer "market" value is what is actually achieved. It is not just about greed - if I told my agent to market my 3 bed terraced house for £3 million he'd say get real.

The bottom line is houses all over are having to be reduced to levels PRE 2004 and often back to 2003 levels as has been highlighted in other recent threads.

Some areas are ahead on this one and others lagging I agree. I admit I was surprised by that particular house because Hertfordshire tends to benefit from London/City workers moving out and prices can be at London levels due to transport. But people I know in St Albans and Harpenden and they say say things are not quite as bouyant and they think there is a high inertia factor there but the money is running out at the top end - that is because the bottom end is suffering.

[Tip Top]

You can't have it both ways. Agents market at what they consider to be an achievable market value or a little above if times are good. Yes the truer "market" value is what is actually achieved. It is not just about greed - if I told my agent to market my 3 bed terraced house for £3 million he'd say get real.

The bottom line is houses all over are having to be reduced to levels PRE 2004 and often back to 2003 levels as has been highlighted in other recent threads.

Some areas are ahead on this one and others lagging I agree. I admit I was surprised by that particular house because Hertfordshire tends to benefit from London/City workers moving out and prices can be at London levels due to transport. But people I know in St Albans and Harpenden and they say say things are not quite as bouyant and they think there is a high inertia factor there but the money is running out at the top end - that is because the bottom end is suffering.

One of the first questions I always ask an EA about a property is what did they value it at.. Most try to avoid answering the question because nine times out of ten it’s the owners who dictate the price within reason. I have seen other properties like the one you quoted where the owner was being unrealistic but the agent thought they would 'have a go'. In the end they reduce the price back to what the agent said in the first place.

The house I mentioned that went for 10% over list was in Harpenden ....even though its likely to end up on the extended flight path for Luton!! mad....

[Tempest]

One of the first questions I always ask an EA about a property is what did they value it at.. Most try to avoid answering the question because nine times out of ten it’s the owners who dictate the price within reason. I have seen other properties like the one you quoted where the owner was being unrealistic but the agent thought they would 'have a go'. In the end they reduce the price back to what the agent said in the first place.

The house I mentioned that went for 10% over list was in Harpenden ....even though its likely to end up on the extended flight path for Luton!! mad....

I am by no means saying people are not trying it on - there are many who are (and many who are still prepared to pay offers or over). I do not agree owners dictate price 9 times out of 10 though. But I agree your area of Herts is likely to appear robust longer than others given the wealth of people buying there - but fall it will.

I don't disagree things may appear ok to you but I suggest it is masking long unsold properties and misplaced expectations - which are now about to seep into general awareness/consciousness even in AL5.

[Night Owl]

I haven't got all the numbers - what would this make the YoY figure?

It would make YoY around 2.1% I think.

October 2004 was 0% monthly change.

Figures from their last report were:

0.4 Sep 2004

0.0 Oct 2004

0.9 Nov 2004

-0.2 Dec 2004

0.3 Jan 2005

0.4

-0.2

0.7

0.3

-0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.2 Sep 2005

As the rate of house price inflation is low, we can neglect compounding, so you can pretty much add on this months figure and subtract the figure from last year... I think! The YoY figure from the September report was 1.8%, so we would be adding 0.3% and subtracting zero if the rumour is correct. Notice that 0.9% will be wiped off next month plus whatever next months figure is. I quite like the Nationwide index as it seems to be more smoothed than Halifax, which should make it easier to spot zero percent YoY.