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Mortgage Repossessions At Historical Low Levels.

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Bad luck bears spin the news as much as you want but read the FACTS from the BBC today and weep!!!!!

"The CML has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the end of the year.

However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early 1990s property market crash. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

So the facts tell us, mortgage repossesions are 85% LESS now than during the last HPC. Mortgage repossesions are two thirds LESS then the historical average.

More evidence that the "promised" HPC has been cancelled and most homeowners are managing more comfortably with their mortgage payments than ever before.

Record low levels of mortgage repossesions are not a symptom of a HPC (everyone can see that unless of course you fantasise about a HPC).

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Edited by property guru

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Quote from BBC webpage linked to by Property Guru:

"My house was repossessed a month ago. At the height of the property boom in early 2004 I splashed out far more than I could actually afford on a large property with the intention of selling it on at a profit. It wasn't long after that the property slowdown started but I kept hold of the property and financed the mortgage by getting myself further into debt, I was certain that the housing market would take off again and I would realise my gains. Following two years of quite harsh housing market drops in the south west I have been forced to admit defeat.

I blame myself for everything that has happened but I also think there are a lot of companies around who like to put a rosy outlook on the housing market and try to make everyone think it will always go up (estate agents, surveyors, mortgage companies), they should take part of the blame for lying to the public."

Dan, Bristol

I am sure that there are plenty of people not yet repossessed but in generally the same position, only able to hold onto their houses by maxing out credit cards until the house of cards collapses.

Edited by Young Goat

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30,000 repo cases this year sounds like a lot, but when you consider how many homes with mortgages there are in this country, it's not a lot really. However, it could also be a continuing trend, which is bad news for those mortgaged to the hilt, but good news for us mere mortals that just want somewhere to call our own, but can't afford anything at the moment.

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Personal bankruptcies are at an all time high.

Wait until legislation links unsecured debt to property and then come back and post about the house repo stats.

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Sorry to hear that YG...

I hope that all goes well and that you'll manage to piece together your life once again before long. If it's any comfort, some of the most successful people on the planet have fallen on hard times in their pasts, only to move on to greater things in the future...

All the best and a 100% respect for your honesty and pragmatism. You'll bounce back before long, I'm sure...

Sorry for the misunderstanding but this quote is from the web page Property Guru links to and is not related to my circumstances.

I am an FTB happy to rent until some sanity is restored to the market.

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_40950222_mortgage_reposses2_gra203.gif

Can we have your opinion on the trend in this graph, PG? I just can't help myself, I've tried and tried, but I can't help spinning and I need you to help me! Please stop me thinking that this graph is showing a HUGE increase in repos and that something might be wrong in the housing market.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

BBC Business Ceefax page 203.

Mortgage repossession orders during the past three months in England &

Wales were UP 66% ON A YEAR AGO to nearly 20,000, official figures

have shown.

Repossession orders have been on the increase since early 2004.

The figures show the total number of homeowners being taken to court by

lenders pursuing mortgage DEBT ROSE 55% TO NEARLY 30,000 :unsure:

Hope that helps.

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Personal bankruptcies are at an all time high.

Wait until legislation links unsecured debt to property and then come back and post about the house repo stats.

I thought the whole point of an usecured loan was that it isn't "secured" against property or other asset? The trade off being higher repayment cost of said loan? How can they legislate to change the terms of a loan retrospectively? Or am i missing something?

edit:

And if all credit had to be secured against property, a huge number of people wouldn't be able to get any credit at all, putting many finance companies out of pocket if not business. Can't see it happening.

Edited by Tentpeg

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Bad luck bears spin the news as much as you want but read the FACTS from the BBC today and weep!!!!!

"The CML has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the end of the year.

However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early 1990s property market crash. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

So the facts tell us, mortgage repossesions are 85% LESS now than during the last HPC. Mortgage repossesions are two thirds LESS then the historical average.

More evidence that the "promised" HPC has been cancelled and most homeowners are managing more comfortably with their mortgage payments than ever before.

Record low levels of mortgage repossesions are not a symptom of a HPC (everyone can see that unless of course you fantasise about a HPC).

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Hi,

That is quite correct. It is way too early to call anything on this figure alone yet. You must know yourself, falls and rises in markets like housing don't just collapse or gallop away in one month, these figures need to be observed for at least 6 months.

What you can read from this is that the rate of accleration is pretty huge in historical terms, similar to the initial take off in repocessions of the early ninities. Some people are just lazy, greedy speculators and may deserve everything they get but unfortunately, there will also be a number of people who are the classic crash victims like young families, people moving for relocation, single, stretched professionals. It is not so nice to be glib about that, it is a genuine problem.

Read into this also that we are at point now of record personal bankruptcies. HIGHEST EVER recorded and rising. One of the reasons repocessions and bankrupt actions have been held back until fairly recently is because bank balance sheets are also at some of the highest ever levels of debt risk. Did you notice how over the last year all the banks have been raising their bad debt provisions? Why do you think they did that? It has generally been thought that the banks have held off from court orders more so than in the past because of their delicate financial positions. They are the ones who vomitted this 1.2 trillion quid of delusionary money into the mortgage and credit card markets, they are also in competition with eachother not to be the worst hit in the fallout of these gathering repossessions and debt defaults.

If I was you, I would checkout the commentaries of foreign and UK based investment banks and investment firms, those less directly involved with UK mortgage lending and housing sales, it gives a good alternative take.

Anyway, hope that helps.

Boomer

(PS, where is your jedi apprentice 'Marketeer' nowadays? Last heard him selling off his entire porfolio of BTL when he called the market top about a year ago. Do you guys still keep in contact, you used to be close man, like brothers).

Edited by boom_and_bust

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Bad luck bears spin the news as much as you want but read the FACTS from the BBC today and weep!!!!!

"The CML has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the end of the year.

However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early 1990s property market crash. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

So the facts tell us, mortgage repossesions are 85% LESS now than during the last HPC. Mortgage repossesions are two thirds LESS then the historical average.

More evidence that the "promised" HPC has been cancelled and most homeowners are managing more comfortably with their mortgage payments than ever before.

Record low levels of mortgage repossesions are not a symptom of a HPC (everyone can see that unless of course you fantasise about a HPC).

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Normally don't reply to wind up merchants but. . .what the hey!

Yep 10,000 is currently low if compared to the max of the last boom.

The only problem is that the max of the last boom occured in mid 1991, 2.5 years after house prices crashed. Don't believe me? See here for a quick graphical overview

So here we sit in 2005, 1 year on from the peak and repossessions are rising rapidly and house prices are falling - yes, historically repossessions are quite low, but that's just like they were in 1989 and we all know what happened next.

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This is a classic bit of spin.

Question: when was the last "historical low" for repossessions?

Answer: 1989

House repossessions hit a minima at the end of a boom period. The reason is simple: after a boom, people in trouble can sell or MEW their way out of difficulties.

In 1990, arrears started to ramp up sharply, peaking in 1993.

Historical low repossessions ramping up sharply is a great indicator of crash conditions. Just as it was in 1989 (it ain't so different this time after all). Thanks for pointing this out to us PG.

Edited by Rapid Descent

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I thought the whole point of an usecured loan was that it isn't "secured" against property or other asset? The trade off being higher repayment cost of said loan? How can they legislate to change the terms of a loan retrospectively? Or am i missing something?

edit:

And if all credit had to be secured against property, a huge number of people wouldn't be able to get any credit at all, putting many finance companies out of pocket if not business. Can't see it happening.

Lloyds TSB, Halifax Bank of Scotland, Nationwide, Northern Rock, Abbey, Alliance and Leicester, and Marks and Spencer Money, all said they use charging orders to turn unsecured debt into borrowing secured against the home.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/4320878.stm

Some folks want thier money back for some reason

Edited by theChuz

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
And if all credit had to be secured against property, a huge number of people wouldn't be able to get any credit at all, putting many finance companies out of pocket if not business. Can't see it happening.

It has been happening for awhile now. It`s called a charge order made by the courts in favour of the lenders when attempting to recover debts on credit cards.

Well publicised by the media the past week.

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What may make repossessions even greater this time is that financial institutions non property lending exposure is so much higher this time.

They haven't got a cat in hells chance of recovering the unsecured debt at the moment & legislation is some way off so how will they claw back their losses quickly - by being utterly ruthless on people with as soon as they get into arrears on their mortgages

Edited by van hoogstraten

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Personal bankruptcies are at an all time high.

Wait until legislation links unsecured debt to property and then come back and post about the house repo stats.

It already does. And hybrid CCJs now allow the unsecure debts to be attached very rapidly.

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hybrid CCJs now allow the unsecure debts to be attached very rapidly.

They do, but Charging Orders do not necessarily lead to a house being repo'd. They usually only allow a creditor to recover their money when the owner eventually decides to sell the property.

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So the facts tell us, mortgage repossesions are 85% LESS now than during the last HPC. Mortgage repossesions are two thirds LESS then the historical average.

Property Guru,

Since you put so much weight behind these historical averages could you please help me to understand something?

I've always thought that an average like this would be calculated from a long period of fluctuating figures. These figures would be added together then divided by the number of periods measured. Usually this means that some figures will be above the average, and some figures will be below the average. But over the long term this will even out and a trend will appear.

This suggests to me that if current figures are below average, then at some point they must rise to above average to maintain the long term trend. The reposession orders figures seem to be indicating that this is starting to happen.

I believe it is possible to apply this simple mathematical technique to all sorts of things. I suppose if I had to pick an example entirely at random, it would be house prices.

Obviously you have a different understanding of this. Please explain.

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"The CML has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the end of the year.

However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early 1990s property market crash. "

Ah, the CML. No VI there, then. <_<

And the crash has only just started (and very nicely too), so just give it another year or two to build up a nice head of steam.

No more Spring Bounces to the rescue! :D

Nomadd

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Ah, the CML. No VI there, then. <_<

And the crash has only just started (and very nicely too), so just give it another year or two to build up a nice head of steam.

No more Spring Bounces to the rescue! :D

Nomadd

The crash has only just started ???????????????? I thought the bears / missed the boaters said it began in summer 2004 ???

So the people who bought in 2004 / 2005 did the right thing after all if the HPC has not even begun yet.

PG

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The crash has only just started ???????????????? I thought the bears / missed the boaters said it began in summer 2004 ???

So the people who bought in 2004 / 2005 did the right thing after all if the HPC has not even begun yet.

PG

Hi,

*sigh* Here we go again. Look through the press releases on the site that related to the last period of house price correction in the early ninetees. All the way through there was talk about confidence returning, the soft landing on track, etc., It was not until a good 18-24 months into it that that period of market-price correction that the retrospective start of the decline was traced back to 1989-1990. Then the reporting got very bearish after that for another few years, missing the recovery when it had started. That is the nature of the beast, if anything the VI media spin is worse this time around. Please read it, you are started to sound dated now, like Mr Creme-Brulee from Royston Vasey. You are trotting off all the usual stuff that was being touted a year ago and at the market fall in the nintees press about missed boats, crowded island, new economic horizon, etc., Well, you'll no doubt come back with a load of the same estate agent one liners again. *sigh*

Ok, I didn't mean to be abrupt. It is really tedious though, new analysis is needed, something deeper to grab our attention.

How is marketeer?

Hope that helps,

Boomer

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Guest rigsby II

Well it's just been the top story on Johnnie Walkers drivetime news (so it must be true) that reposessions are at their highest (rate) since 1991-1993

But, this time the newsreader says, the mortgage lenders have learned their lesson and they won't be kicking people out on the streets like in the 1990s.

Why ?

Not because of any social concience, but because of the dramatic effect it had on house prices when a glut of properties hit the market.

So if they only threaten to reposess - hows that work then - if homeowners cant pay in the first place - and they wont get kicked out ?

Do non-payments all stack up and get paid off sometime hence and they live mortgage free/reduced payment in the mean time?

Edited by rigsby II

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Well it's just been the top story on Johnnie Walkers drivetime news (so it must be true) that reposessions are at their highest (rate) since 1991-1993

But, this time the newsreader says, the mortgage lenders have learned their lesson and they won't be kicking people out on the streets like in the 1990s.

Why ?

Not because of any social concience, but because of the dramatic effect it had on house prices when a glut of properties hit the market.

So if they only threaten to reposess - hows that work then - if homeowners cant pay in the first place - and they wont get kicked out ?

Do non-payments all stack up and get paid off sometime hence and they live mortgage free/reduced payment in the mean time?

Hi,

Well, I would imagine that as the banks gets increasingly dragged down by non-revenues from their customers, some will collapse, some will get bought off by aggressive foreign banks, and so on. Not very likely, I guess many banks will want to get out ahead of the rest and repair their balance sheets before the market dives completely. It's not a gentlemen's club with nice little agreements, the govt. doesn't have the financial muscle to bail all these lenders out at once, added to which that the UK is one of the world's most open economies and open to the threat of aggressive foreign investors etc., Given the choice between taking a hit and getting out to repair your balance sheets early, or face potential insolvency or hostile takeovers, I think the latter is more likely.

Boomer

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Guest rigsby II

Hi,

Well, I would imagine that as the banks gets increasingly dragged down by non-revenues from their customers, some will collapse, some will get bought off by aggressive foreign banks, and so on. Not very likely, I guess many banks will want to get out ahead of the rest and repair their balance sheets before the market dives completely. It's not a gentlemen's club with nice little agreements, the govt. doesn't have the financial muscle to bail all these lenders out at once, added to which that the UK is one of the world's most open economies and open to the threat of aggressive foreign investors etc., Given the choice between taking a hit and getting out to repair your balance sheets early, or face potential insolvency or hostile takeovers, I think the latter is more likely.

Boomer

Hmmm.

Way I look at it is you either get reposessed or you don't

The gist of what I understood was that the lenders will threaten to reposess you, but they wont actually kick anyone out on the streets.

So its a threat. That hasn't got any teeth. Although I wouldnt want it hanging over me.

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Bad luck bears spin the news as much as you want but read the FACTS from the BBC today and weep!!!!!

"The CML has predicted that more than 10,000 homes will be repossessed by the end of the year.

However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early 1990s property market crash. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

So the facts tell us, mortgage repossesions are 85% LESS now than during the last HPC. Mortgage repossesions are two thirds LESS then the historical average.

More evidence that the "promised" HPC has been cancelled and most homeowners are managing more comfortably with their mortgage payments than ever before.

Record low levels of mortgage repossesions are not a symptom of a HPC (everyone can see that unless of course you fantasise about a HPC).

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Do you actually believe this stuff you're churning out? It is good comedy I'll grant you. But as for being related to reality....

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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