7 Million Uk Population Increase...

[penbat1]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

Edited October 26, 2005 by penbat1

[munimula]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

..are you aware that we do also build new houses in this country?

[penbat1]

..are you aware that we do also build new houses in this country?

Yes but not 7 million more over the next 25 years.

[jellybean]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

Maybe in Englandshire. In Scotland the population is forecast to decline. It is stable at the moment mainly thanks to new imigrants from the former soviet block countries. Lack of people is the problem here. Mind you, since the tech bubble burst and financial jobs starting to move over sea's I wonder what they will do. Farm haggis, breed bagpipes or work for the council I suppose.

Edited October 26, 2005 by jellybean

[Sledgehead]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

I think the important part there is "25 years". Instead of making bald assertions why not do some research and tell us what such a growth rate has done for prices @ the end of previous 10 year bull runs? After all, you are trying to prove a point aren't you? Why should bears draw all the charts? Your vested interests, your house price scenario, why not your effort?

Edited October 26, 2005 by Sledgehead

[jellybean]

Yes but not 7 million more over the next 25 years.

A house each, wayhay.

[Matt]

Perhaps you are right long term, but this website is concerned with the imminent house price crash, and no amount immigration is going to prevent that.

[munimula]

Yes but not 7 million more over the next 25 years.

House occupancy rate is 2.4 so that's 2.9 million houses or 116,000 per year which is below the current building rate

What's the problem?

Edited October 26, 2005 by munimula

[Marina]

Even at 2 to a house that's 3.5 million - over 25 years - thats 140000 a year. Isn't that about what gets built now?

We all know immigrants love to live 10 to a house etc. So no problem there then.

There is a lot of bolleaux talked about life expectancy. I read some figures somewhere that showed that very, very recently (so figures not reliable yet) it looked like we had hit a peak and were now going backwards.

It's very anecdotal - but looking around at a reasonable sample - i.e. people I know, all the parents at school etc - strikes me more and more people are dying of cancer at a young age. Maybe the microwaves, radio-waves, mobile phone waves, food with 18 layers of pesticide etc etc etc is having an effect. I have seen the phrase 'cancer epidemic' quite a few times in different places recently.

Throw in the obesity and sedentary lifestyles of the younger generation and, by 25 years time, we'll be back to 3 score years and 10. Which will be a laugh because that will no doubt be the official retirement age by then.

[Tempest]

There is a current thread on population impact on HPI http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pic=17977&st=20

The population may be increasing by 7 million over the next 25 years but a good deal of that is because less people are dying than anything else. The birth rate is still very low.

The problem is that there will only be 2 workers (paying tax) for every person of pensionable age in 2025...whereas there are 3 or so now. Work twice as hard and/or pay 50% more tax anyone?

Demographics is why sensible Govts know immigration is needed and why those Euro countries (Italy anyone?) who have negative attitudes to immgration are doomed to trouble.

[simon99]

This is indeed bad news for affordable housing. I've read before today that its more like 80% of this increase will be through immigraiton.

As for Tempests post above, any sensible government should be able to see that solving pensions by ever increasing the population is unsustainable and environmentally destructive.

Edited October 26, 2005 by simon99

[IPOD]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years

At least get your facts straight before you start a thread like this.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/

The UK’s population is projected to rise by 6.1 million from 2003 to 2031 – 5.2 million (84%) of this rise is due to immigration.[2]

Immigration can increase or decrease according to the political climate; it is not some inevitable, relentless behemoth which can only increase (like house prices ). The population projection is only an extrapolation of current trends.

If house prices don't fall I fully expect everyone under-30 to leave the country within a matter of years so like house prices, net migration to the UK can fall as well as rise.

Edited October 26, 2005 by IPOD

[munimula]

The population may be increasing by 7 million over the next 25 years but a good deal of that is because less people are dying than anything else. The birth rate is still very low.

In 20 years time there will be very few people that require the big 5-6 bedroom homes that the elderly leave behind. You can see now that there will be very few families in 20 years time with more than 2 children, if any because it is just not possible to afford larger families anymore. I don't know of anybody younger than my parents generation that is likely to have more than 2 kids if they have any at all after waiting so long to afford a family sized home.

This will have a top down effect on pushing house prices down as the prices of the largest housing stock will inevitably fall.

[OnlyMe]

There is a current thread on population impact on HPI http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pic=17977&st=20

The population may be increasing by 7 million over the next 25 years but a good deal of that is because less people are dying than anything else. The birth rate is still very low.

The problem is that there will only be 2 workers (paying tax) for every person of pensionable age in 2025...whereas there are 3 or so now. Work twice as hard and/or pay 50% more tax anyone?

Demographics is why sensible Govts know immigration is needed and why those Euro countries (Italy anyone?) who have negative attitudes to immgration are doomed to trouble.

Immigration without appropriate bulding is just increasing the cost of living forcing many couples to have fewer children, instead we are getting 20 and 30-somethings who will just add to the retirement problem!

Adding a few million people to an already over-srowded island will have some very big consequences, maybe ehough to persuade say another 5 million to retire abroad or those of working age to leave for good.

Also adding numbers can increase GDP, but it can also exert huge pressure on resourses and also at break points cuase dislocations in the working population - a jobs buffer is needed so that those out of work can quickly get alternative employment to pay for ever growing commitments - remove the buffer and when the trouble comes it causes far heavier defaults than would otherwise be the case.

[dog]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

penbat1

Where is the link to the story? My understanding is that we are heading in the direction of Italy and we will see a substantial decline in population.

[munimula]

Adding a few million people to an already over-srowded island will have some very big consequences, maybe ehough to persuade say another 5 million to retire abroad or those of working age to leave for good.

Taken from migration watch website;

England is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. It has nearly twice the population density of Germany, 4 times that of France and 12 times that of the USA.

Transport system in this country is practically at full capacity already, at peak times it reached capacity years ago. Another 6 million residents would make this country unliveable IMO. One thing we can be sure of and that is that the transport system in this country won't be improved inline with any popluation increases.

[Tempest]

As for Tempests post above, any sensible government should be able to see that solving pensions by ever increasing the population is unsustainable and environmentally destructive.

Nonsense. It is not unsustainable and need not be ever increasing (average retirement/death ages may be increasing but I assure you we will not live forever). All it needs to do is restore the balance of workers/non workers and for those workers to bear children. The same result could be achieved by everyone having 2.5 to 3 babies for 20 years - what would be wrong with that? should it be prevented?. That is what happened in the baby booms - was that population increase unsustainable or environmentally destructive? We just built a few new towns, expanded some others, lost some green belt and hey presto increased output/GDP. We have plenty of land etc

In any event it is only one factor in a range of solutions but a necessary one. We have already assimilated a few million immigrants over the last several years if you believe the unofficial figures - I don't see the problem. As long as it happens at a measured pace we can cope with it. The real issue would be how long it took us to reach a ceiling on age of death - if that kept rising indefinitely (which I cannot believe) I agree things could break down. But if things settle down eventually and a balance is restored between births/deaths we could be ok.

Edited: This smacks of Malthusian gloom. He predicted in 1798 that population increases would spell catastrophe - we're still here! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthus

As for population density - I note the claims but look at Japan, Holand, Korea etc etc. They are far worse densities than us. Necessity would be the mother on invention as usual.

Edited October 26, 2005 by Tempest

[OnlyMe]

In any event it is only one factor in a range of solutions but a necessary one. We have alrady assimilated a few million immigrants over the last several years if you believe the unofficial figures - I don't see the problem. As long as it happens at a measured pace we can cope with it.

It hasn't happened at a controlled pace, the infrastructure hasn't been upgraded accordingly and the numbers have helped spawn the housing/debt bubble which is and will decimate many many jobs for good in a country already struggling to comepte and as I said the economic migrants will be adding to the demographic problem, not reducing it.

[Tempest]

It hasn't happened at a controlled pace, the infrastructure hasn't been upgraded accordingly and the numbers have helped spawn the housing/debt bubble which is and will decimate many many jobs for good in a country already struggling to comepte and as I said the economic migrants will be adding to the demographic problem, not reducing it.

Noted. Don't get me wrong. I live in London and in the SE I can see that the infrastructure has not been upgraded to meet this. All I am saying is that given the will/necessity it could be done (but probably won't!).

I agree immigration is not a panacea but it will help alleviate some short term pressures caused by our declining birth rate. One would hope there is a ceiling on average age of death eventually because if that keeps rising for the next 50 years (to say 100+) then we are in trouble if we cannot grow our way out of it indefinitely.

[property guru]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

Excellent point. The Uk is gaining 200,000 new people evey year according to latest figures. Which of course creates more demand which helps sustain property prices.

We need to add a city the size of Cambridge or Milton Keynes EVERY year just to keep pace.

This is not a deciding factor in why there is / will be no HPC but it certainly is a decent contributory factor.

Property Guru

[Levy process]

There was a recent story that the latest research was that the UK population was going to increase by 7 million in the next 25 years - about half through longer life expectancy and half through immigration. Therefore surely that means long term UK house price boom !

Yep, that's right. And predictions about the next 25 years are ALWAYS right aren't they?

If house prices become any more ridiculous, something will change, such that this scenario simply will not happen. Whether it is lowering immigration, more house building or what I don't know. But young people simply are not going to utterly enslave themselves in order to have somewhere to live.

[Big AL]

It doesent matter how many people live here if they cannot afford a house- (thats the issue I would say!)

[OnlyMe]

There was a report indicating that something like 10m UK nationals were contemplating leaving the country at some point in their life time. Just a few days ago there was a report of regarding the brian drain. If the UK deteriorates at anything like the pace it has done over the last few years a good proportion of those may actually leave and not just think about it.

Clarke is just about to release another load of criminals into the public domain following another failur in planning and control of who actually enters the country. Does anybody honestly believe that people will put up with a situation of increasing crime, tax, job insecurity, red tape, transport mayhem, costs (wait till there is no more oil) over the next few decades, I don't.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...70&in_a_source=

Reluctant Clarke will free more convicts

Charles Clarke is to take desperate steps to ease jail overcrowding after blaming the crisis on an increase of almost 75 per cent in foreign convicts.

Edited October 26, 2005 by OnlyMe

[jellybean]

Bloke on Radio 4 just now on about an ageing population making us poorer. He says it's a myth. Population has been gradually getting older for hundreds of years and we have been getting richer and healthier with it. Also there are a lot of other factors to concider. Worth listening to.

Edited October 26, 2005 by jellybean

[MRMX9]

In practice about 6m of these 7m migrants will end up moving to London and will live in grotty housing of multiple occupation in places like Hackney, Stockwell and Newham. Property prices in most parts of the country probably won't be affected unless London becomes such an appalling crime ridden place to live that the indigenous population moves out.