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Guest Charlie The Tramp

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Gloucestershire which is my neck of the woods , repo's increase 42.5% yoy - Theres alot of chav type folks in glos, infact it can be abit hoytie toytie (how the hell do you spell that) so ive got a big bucket of "ha ha ha you f*cks" for them.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

So we're on course for 100 - 110 thousand repos this year. Any idea how this compares to the figures in the early 90s?

These figures do not show actual repossessions just actions entered.

The CML publish the true figure for repossessions enforced.

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What is interesting is that while actions have reason from 19,300 (Q3 2004) to 30,000 (Q£ 2005) actual orders made have nearly doubled from 11,893 to 19,687.

The first figure can be treated as those who have a problem. The second figures are those who cannot get out of the problem. An 80% rise is rather worrying as this points to problems that started in May at the latest and before the recent real problems started.

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A lot have been "suspended" it looks like. I know someone who was in this position a couple of years ago (business loan secured on house went bad). Had repo action entered against him but pleaded for 6 months to sell house privately rather than by repo auction (to get better price). Got it and got out skin intact.

As I understand it breathing room is almost always given - the trouble will arise if there is no prospect of the owner receiving enough from the sale to satisfy the creditors (eg as prices fall...).

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
A lot have been "suspended" it looks like

The fact that nearly 30k were actioned is quite worrying. Add on the Q3 personal Bankruptcies when published and the serious debt burdens will show how bad it really is.

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The fact that nearly 30k were actioned is quite worrying. Add on the Q3 personal Bankruptcies when published and the serious debt burdens will show how bad it really is.

Agreed.

Ages ago (last year) someone posted some of the necessary ingredients for a crash (not all of which were needed to ***** the bubble) - to the derision of the bulls who have mostly left this place. Among them were the need for inflation to climb materially, redundancies, poor retailing/consumer activity, higher interest rates, actual yoy falls in some regions, increased press awareness/commentator bearishness, increased resposessions etc.

Well, we have had over the last year most of these at levels far above even bearish hopes this time last year - I did not think repos would tick up this early in the cycle - that it is increasing at all for me is a KEY indicator. And all this without an increase in rates! Wait until that happens in March (my guess).

Edited by Tempest

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From the blog - the brief BBC report http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

All due to the last round of "interest rates"rises apparently.

J*sus, we have repossessions climbing rapidly with prevailing interest rates at only 4.5% for heavens sake!

Is this not a worry? I remember bulls/VI saying that this could not happen unless interest rates climbed to 10%+ like the last crash.

What on earth will happen in things go to 5-5.5% when we have to follow the dollar up?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
The last large rise in the nineties was driven by soaring interest rates, but the present increase is attributable to the high level of debt borrowers have on cards and loans. It also shows lenders' willingness to go to the courts to claw their cash back from defaulting borrowers. Most of the major banks admitted to growing levels of bad debts in the latest round of results reporting.

I have a feeling it is going to get very nasty in the future.

It now appears that the lenders have no intention of sitting back and taking it on the chin.

A nasty shock is about to hit indebted homeowners who think they are safe with massive unsecured debts.

Some will find themselves in negative equity even before any fall in the value of their property.

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From the blog - the brief BBC report http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

All due to the last round of "interest rates"rises apparently.

J*sus, we have repossessions climbing rapidly with prevailing interest rates at only 4.5% for heavens sake!

Is this not a worry? I remember bulls/VI saying that this could not happen unless interest rates climbed to 10%+ like the last crash.

What on earth will happen in things go to 5-5.5% when we have to follow the dollar up?

In a conversation I had with collegues about 18 months ago, I demonstrated that the 10% claim by the VI's was rubbish, because people calculate how much they can afford on current conditions and do not consider that things can take a turn for the worse. Therefore there were plenty of people out there getting mortgaged to the hilt at 3.5% base rates. These folks are now coming off the cheap fixed rate periods on to mortgages that reflect the 4.5% rate we have today.

That is nearly a 30% increase in two to three years. Wages have not risen anything like that. Add in a few credit cards and ....

Phase two of the crash is now getting under way, the forced selling phase.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

London house prices have increased by 44% in three years.

Salaries have increased by 7%.( BBC News )

Q3 London figures 5,512 actions entered into.

Estimates for 2005

10,000 homes repossessed Nationally.

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In a conversation I had with collegues about 18 months ago, I demonstrated that the 10% claim by the VI's was rubbish, because people calculate how much they can afford on current conditions and do not consider that things can take a turn for the worse. Therefore there were plenty of people out there getting mortgaged to the hilt at 3.5% base rates. These folks are now coming off the cheap fixed rate periods on to mortgages that reflect the 4.5% rate we have today.

That is nearly a 30% increase in two to three years. Wages have not risen anything like that. Add in a few credit cards and ....

Phase two of the crash is now getting under way, the forced selling phase.

Worse than that, they were on cheap discount deals for a couple of years at 2-3% in some cases in which case mortgage rates at 5-5.5% are a near doubling of the burden...

Edited by Tempest

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Gloucestershire which is my neck of the woods , repo's increase 42.5% yoy - Theres alot of chav type folks in glos, infact it can be abit hoytie toytie (how the hell do you spell that) so ive got a big bucket of "ha ha ha you f*cks" for them.

http://www.bartleby.com/62/82/H0748200.html says it's "hoity toity" (since you asked).

EDIT: "(since you asked)" added.

Edited by aclwalker

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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