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Tempest

Hard Evidence Of Price Falls At The Top/luxury End

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My contribution to "who has the biggest falls" - beat this:

I just love the way Google grabs and caches pages from the web and saves them for posterity.

Current property for sale now Oct 2005 in Hertfordshire for £1,000,000 ("guide price" too!):

http://www.savills.co.uk/residentialSearch...9202&pID=106902

Nice. I like it.

Using Google to search for the same property and accessing the "cached" result (rather than the current search result) gives me a previous attempt to sell it grabbed by Google in Feb 2004:

http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:YPzv5...+uk+house&hl=en

Oh dear, it was for sale for £1,400,000.

:blink:

Almost 30% off asking in 18 months. I am reassured once more. Wait until I tell the wife.

What happened to the market since spring 2004? Can somebody tell me? please? I though the market was stabilising....

;)

Edited: Just noticed the downloadable brochure from Savills has a previous price still in it too! (£1,250,000 - Good old observant EAs). So it has tracked down from £1.4m to £1.25m and now to £1m.

Another 20% off and I might buy it!

Looks like they've had to convert the loft rooms to "bedrooms" too to try and get rid.

Edited by Tempest

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How dya searched cached on Google?

TB

Search for anything and, if Google has grabbed something on it before a (pale blue highlighted) reference to "Cached - Similar Pages" will appear at the bottom of the particular search result. Not always but depends on what you are looking for. Click on the "Cached" one.

Seems to work well with house prices particularly. I just type in the postcode of the area I am looking at and "sale", "house", the "street name" if I know it, "uk" and sometimes "estate"

eg "SW11 house sale Bloggs Road uk" up should pop a bunch of results some of which will link to current estate agents sites/find a property/prime location etc - if you are lucky will have a cached result below indicating the search terms has thrown up something on it before - don't click the top line search result but click below on "cached" - the date of the grab will be near the top of the page somewhere.

I track lots of local and national asking prices that way. It is also fun in a detective type way trying to piece the information together! Sad I know.

Good luck.

Edited by Tempest

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400,000/1,400,000~29% not 40%.

It's one natural key that the foolish bull advertisers have over the bears. I'm sure you know this, and it was an inadvertant slip, but maths makes 50% rises equal to 33 1/3% falls, without nary a whisper from the FSA or Advertising Standards, and it has always driven me nuts. But when you 'get' the maths in your gut, talk of 50% falls finally comes into sharp focus (ie. the obliteration of 100% rises).

As for me, I believe in 90% real falls at the absolute worse moment of panic a few years hence (might only last days), those few tragic 'wrong' sales, at which point houses would be massively undervalued, but I have no nominal predictions.

Damn! It was a slip - I was focusing on the new £1m price and was too hasty. Good pick up. I have picked others up on this before so am doubly miffed! Post now corrected.

It actually goes to show that one does not need a huge "crash" in nominal terms to get huge retreats, particulalry if inflation is thrown in. A 30% reduction plus several years of inflation (real world inflation) as the stall and then decline occurs and you are looking at clawing back more than a 50% increase in real terms (eg near 60+% rise). As an example, I live in a good area in SW London where prices have been flat (and now starting to decline) since late 2003/early 2004. A 22% reduction in nominal terms from those levels would take our house back to 2000 levels when we bought it (without taking inflation into account). I bought once at 2000 (real) levels and would do so again in trading up.

As for max/min falls I agree, there will be places where there will be huge real falls (see the Llanelli thread for a likely candidate).

Edited by Tempest

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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