Reflections On The Ni Forum

[Malthus]

I see we've managed 50,000 posts now - the most of any regional sub forum.

Reading the first post made by headmelter in the old Northern ireland thread at the top of the page .

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=37941&view=findpost&p=486604

He talked about houses up 48% and selling like hot cakes -- the opposite is true now.

He was unable to find out about house prices over here --- now we have the NI property index.

Thanks to all the posters who kept the faith when gazumping was the favourite game in town -- hopefully we can soon benefit from our patience.

This is the best natured forum on HPC - we don't waste time on flaming other posters -- and I think this is part of our success.

We may have less quantity of posts now but I think the quality is still there.

Excellent post, I haven't been posting as much over the last year as the crash is so clear that even a blind bull can see it.

The NI forum has saved so many people from the nonsense of the BT, RICS , EA's etc

IMHO there is still very little value in the market, so many owners and investors are hanging on by their finger nails that there has to be further drops.

The silver bullet that will bring the NI market back to affordability is the fact that SE England will recover frm the recession/depression years before NI and the BOE will set interest rates to reflect this IMO

Thanks again to everyone on the NI board for great information and craic over the last few years

Edited June 21, 2012 by Malthus

[tinbin]

I see we've managed 50,000 posts now - the most of any regional sub forum.

Reading the first post made by headmelter in the old Northern ireland thread at the top of the page .

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=37941&view=findpost&p=486604

He talked about houses up 48% and selling like hot cakes -- the opposite is true now.

He was unable to find out about house prices over here --- now we have the NI property index.

Thanks to all the posters who kept the faith when gazumping was the favourite game in town -- hopefully we can soon benefit from our patience.

This is the best natured forum on HPC - we don't waste time on flaming other posters -- and I think this is part of our success.

We may have less quantity of posts now but I think the quality is still there.

50,000 posts ... and countless amounts of anoanymous readers who no doubt have benefited from the forum.

[2buyornot2buy]

I would like to thank, in particular the EAs masquerading as genuine posters. You contribution to the debate has been... enlightening.

[2buyornot2buy]

If they only had the sense not to use their EA office email address then I would give them credit for intelligence. But there you go - like shooting fish in a barrel.

Says it all really.

Not the sharpest tools in the box.

[Realistic NI EA]

If they only had the sense not to use their EA office email address then I would give them credit for intelligence. But there you go - like shooting fish in a barrel.

That made me really LOL

I see so many of them still trying to talk up the market that I have to wonder about their business acumen. Our firm has proven that if you make vendors realise the full extent of the housing market crash then they will price their properties realistically or simply won't bother trying to sell, therefore not wasting anyone's time. It would be better for all EAs to openly accept where we are right now and make an effort to convince their vendors to reduce their asking prices or take their properties off the market, ending the deluge of overpriced houses on the market. They would sell more properties and make more money- simple eh? That's not going to happen though as they would have to admit that they were wrong with their astronomically high valuations that they gave just a few months ago in an attempt to sucker the vendor into putting ther house on the market with that particular EA.

Regarding the topic of this thread, I agree totally with doccyboy that the NI part of the forum has been a great little community. It is the first part of the HPC forum I click onto when coming to the site and it has helped me understand the feelings of buyers that I come in contact with every day in my job. I would like to hear more real life expereinces from potential buyers to find out what they are coming up against in their part of the province.

[johnsp]

I would like to thank all regular posters on the NI thread.

I am based in the south east (of England) but have a NI wife, so we all know what that means

this site has saved me from buying (in NI) at the peak when arguments were, 'if you don't buy now you'll never be able to buy here'

how wrong they were!

in answer to realistic NI EA above, I find many (most?) EA's are still completely delusional about prices. there really is a widespread feeling that 'it was worth x in 2007, how can it be worth x-y now'

I did find a place we liked and was told what the minimum price 'had to be'. a bit of digigng and I found out that the purchase price (in 2007) for the whole minus a couple of fields sold off, came to the 'minimum price' delusional.

thanks everyone

[tinbin]

Regarding the topic of this thread, I agree totally with doccyboy that the NI part of the forum has been a great little community. It is the first part of the HPC forum I click onto when coming to the site and it has helped me understand the feelings of buyers that I come in contact with every day in my job. I would like to hear more real life expereinces from potential buyers to find out what they are coming up against in their part of the province.

Most of the EA's I have dealt with have an arrogance about them. There doesn't seem to be any common ground between a buyer and an EA at the minute because most buyers are trying to drive a hard bargain (rightly so I should add) and this is not welcomed in any shape or form. EA's seem to have this misplaced idea that the buck stops with them ... i.e 'the value is correct because they said so ... disagree at your peril'

If EA's got marks out of ten for their service then i'm afraid the average mark I would give would be minus 5. I know it is a cliche but they really do need to wake up and recognise that the buyers are the lifeblood of their business. A reality check towards this would see a big change in pricing in the market.

It is hard to have respect for someone who tries to con you out of thousands of £££'s by inventing phantom bidders and many other underhand tactics.

[Ulidia]

I'm an occasional lurker and being Northern Irish (even though I don't live there currently, it will always be home), the Northern Ireland section is the one part of the forum that I would most often cast my eye over.

I sold in Northern Ireland in early 2008 - very fortunate at the time. I was living in the Far East for some time since then but am back working in the UK (London). Increasingly, I'm thinking of buying in Northern Ireland again ........ a house that will be a home, a place where I can grow old. I want to buy in North Belfast as, well, that's where I'm from and it's an incredibly underrated part of the city. More particularly, I want to buy a detached period house in Ben Madigan with direct frontal views of Belfast Lough and views at the back to Cavehill.

Interestingly, prices have come down significantly and, aided by a prospective property sale in the Far East, I'll maybe take the plunge over the next 12 months to 24 months. I've seen a few nice houses that potentially fit my requirements and I'll happily offer 80% of asking price or thereabouts and can sit and wait as, given I work and am located in London, I don't need to buy back home just yet.

Edited June 22, 2012 by Ulidia

[pajd]

As you know Doccy i went sale agreed a few week ago. Should have the mortgage sorted by end of next week. Then its up to the solicitor to get the finger out.

My wife was wanting to buy as soon as we got married in 2010. I showed her this site and she said wait 6 months. Thankfully she waited longer and we got a house at under RV in a good area. Thanks HPC

[okaycuckoo]

I raised this query on the NI forum a while back, but lost track of it and don't know if anyone responded.

What does the NI crash say about prospects for the rest of the £ zone?

I suppose alot of the bubble was inflated exclusively by borrowers from south of the border, so maybe the distinction is that simple - once they withdrew there was nobody else to keep things going (like Europeans/Chinese parking money in London RE) and so the bubble had to burst.

But I'm still unsure why Merv's monetary policy seems not to have softened the blow. Is it to do with oversupply? Or is NI a sign of things to come in Britain?

Edited June 22, 2012 by okaycuckoo

[Ulidia]

Good to hear from you again. I hope a few more of the original members will pop in on this thread. It would be good to hear how everyone is getting on.

Thanks Doccy.

Was just thinking back. I sold my house in early 2008, having bought it in mid 2006 (following sale of an apartment I'd previously had). By the time I sold my house, the "good feel factor" was out of the market - I think it had been that way since the start of the second half of 2007 although it was obviously taking many people much longer for reality to dawn on them.

The very same style of house in the same development is currently on sale with an asking price less than half of what I was able to sell it for in early 2008 and the 2008 sales price was actually a reduction of 20% from the level it went onto the market at in Q3 2007. At the time, I was very surprised that my house sale completed. As per normal, the transaction took a month or two and during that time, there were continuous very negative stories about the economy and house prices in particular. At the very least, I was surprised the buyers (a young-ish couple) didn't try to knock thousands off the originally agreed price.

Ironicially, from speaking to my solicitor, he indicated that the buyers very much wanted the transaction to proceed because they'd been approved for a mortgage and, with mortgage lending policy tightening around then when the credit crunch was starting to take effect, they were worried that, if they didn't proceed, any chance of getting another mortgage offer was limited. Therefore, an interesting and unfortunate case where some people, in panic mode to get "on the ladder", did so directly against their best interests.

Next back home in mid July and might make a viewing appointment or two. By no means impatient to buy again in Belfast (and I won't be, given I don't expect prices to go anywhere but moderately lower over the next few years) but I do want a home in my home city. I live here in one of the nicer parts of London in a 1930s art deco apartment building ..... but the apartment is extremely small and it's part of a crowded, impersonal city.

Whilst we may often criticise it, I think the quality of life in Northern Ireland, and the beauty of its landscape, is under-appreciated. I look forward to retiring back home, even if I'm still in my 30s so retirement is maybe a few years off just yet

[JoeDavola]

Congratulations on reaching 50,000 posts - quite an achievment!

I still remember very clearly what things were like when I joined here - being told 'house prices do not fall'. I remember when a semi-detached house near my parents was on the market for £325,000 - you'd be lucky to get half that now.

Here's the thing though - even with the drops, houses in Northern Ireland are still too expensive. I believe they'll be cheaper in a years time. And cheaper again a year after that.

My current situation is that I rent a beautiful apartment, 10 minutes walk from where I work, 2 minutes walk from the city centre, and 10 mins walk from the beautiful university area, for £550 a month. It is so energy efficient that I never have to put the heating on, ever. I do not need a car as I can walk everywhere.

If I were to own his flat outright, it would still cost me about £250 a month in rates/maintenance fees and other costs. So £550 is a bargain. Prices would have to fall seriously low for me to consider buying. I've got almost £100K saved in the bank, but I'd only consider buying if the price offered real value compared to the value I'm getting by renting. I'm about to sign up for a third year in this apartment and the rent has not risen at all over three years.

The irony is that when I joined here, I was desperate to buy a house. Now I'm not too bothered either way.

Edited June 23, 2012 by JoeDavola

[PJ1977]

I raised this query on the NI forum a while back, but lost track of it and don't know if anyone responded.

What does the NI crash say about prospects for the rest of the £ zone?

I suppose alot of the bubble was inflated exclusively by borrowers from south of the border, so maybe the distinction is that simple - once they withdrew there was nobody else to keep things going (like Europeans/Chinese parking money in London RE) and so the bubble had to burst.

But I'm still unsure why Merv's monetary policy seems not to have softened the blow. Is it to do with oversupply? Or is NI a sign of things to come in Britain?

I think the influence of southern buyers is overstated - they certainly did some BTL but not as much as you might imagine.

The bigger factor was probably the southern banks who were feeding the fire at both ends both in development finance and mortgage finance. And when I say southern banks I include Ulster and BoSI in that as the boys with the impressive job titles in Donegall Square were dancing to a Dublin tune.

[Shotoflight]

I think the influence of southern buyers is overstated - they certainly did some BTL but not as much as you might imagine.

The bigger factor was probably the southern banks who were feeding the fire at both ends both in development finance and mortgage finance. And when I say southern banks I include Ulster and BoSI in that as the boys with the impressive job titles in Donegall Square were dancing to a Dublin tune.

I think you are right. There was no single factor but rather a whole crock of cr*p that played large and small parts in the tragedy that has the potential to, and is, wrecking families and the economy. Interest rates for london/SE not necessarily correct for NI (just like Dublin/Euro), more public sector jobs, immigration (to a lesser extent perhaps), feelgood factor - 50% going to uni, cheap goods (dvds, DFS sofas, 0% credit cards). Debt became credit.

At the macro level in NI we have all the old UK favourites - liar loans, lax - even aggressive - lending, property porn, high benefit dependency and introduction of tax credits (allowed by many as income), the rise of dual earners. Interest rates for london/SE not necessarily correct for NI, more public sector jobs, BTL, immigration (to a lesser extent NI perhaps), cheap goods (dvds, DFS sofas, 0% credit cards). Irrationally and unsustainably high house prices facilitated Mortgage Equity Withdrawl - ie more debt.

Micro then, we did have southern investment and involvement - hence NAMA now stretches the length and breadth of the island, we had political stability, people returning. For the most part, the good people of Ireland North and South took to debt like a duck takes to water. It seemed every shop owner and builder was at the BTL game, (most criminals - amateur and professional - and drug dealers also manage to obtain property portfolios to launder cash), swiftly followed by the man in the street and reluctant landlords. BTL is backstopped by hundreds of millions of Housing Benefit. We had Housing Associations bidding up land and property in what in many cases has been proven to be a criminal waste of public money. Garden grabbing, now restricted, was rife and houses were built in bogs and dug into the side of hills and 4 were built where one existed. We now have 5,000 unfinished properties, 1,200 ghost estates with £300m needed simply for roads, lights and sewers, as well as 50,000 vacant properties. Sales have crashed 75% from over 40,000 to less than 10,000 pa.

Property was seen as an investment, the professional classes and below clubbed together to buy property, facilited by the banks, building societies and sub primers. People slept outside EA's and some were paid to do so to buy their off plan investment. We had a professor for property investment. Property - apartments - was built specifically for speculative investment. Credit unions (basically a sub prime lender) and the PMS were raided by those wishing to hose the market with debt to speculate. Politicians decided the taxpayer should bail out the PMS.

The Govt pumps millions into co-ownership, the local media sucked up the advertising revenue and diversified into property advertising. Not a cheep from the govt when the average house was ten times the average salary. Now public sector and service cuts, alongside benefit cuts will have a disproportionate effect and the banks have, for the most part, wound their necks in. We are told however prices have stabilised, are at the bottom or are moving sideways. Large payoffs in the millions to police, udr, prison officers and now teachers will no doubt have found its way into houses, boats, cars and holidays. But that was also a one off.

I had two very lazy generalisations - "everyone that wanted a house got one" and "there are many people in houses they should never be in". Neither makes for a healthy housing market. We have the same bank forebearance and reluctance to reposess here and mortgage interest payments (SMI) paid by the taxpayer for those that overstretched (or are manipulating the system - my husband has left me etc.) We have the same useless EA's, in fact I would say worse, and the professional RICS is a joke and played a leading role in this.

So can NI teach the rest of the £ zone. Well it is presumably similar in most ways to areas that are similar to it (eg not london or SE) so say wales or the industrial North (with less overcrowding and more green space here). We certainly love property (and land, historically) as much if not more, can be equally greedy and financially naieve. However our underlying economic structure, £9 billion annual handout and poor prospects - into perpetuity - are what distinguishes us from the rest of GB. We are not as British as Finchley, politicians here are more interested in flags and handshakes than families and hardship, and the border is mainly just a sideshow for smugglers.

Stand back from a distance and watch as we reach our natural level in terms of house prices - which are now falling at 7% every 3 months according to difinitive government figures - and see if you can spot the bottom, and the start of the next irrational bubble whilst surveying the economic and personal damage still being wrought by the current disaster that was high prices and excessive cheap debt.

Oh, congrats on the 50,000 posts. With wider internet usage if this site has contributed to a little more reality and openness to the debate (because lack of house price transparency is the other big NI fault) and if potential buyers are better informed then it will have been worthwhile as well as fun (and somewhere, for myself, where I can pick up things or be corrected). And all this without the terms sheeple, tin foil hats or goldbugs!

BTW, why not 'out' the EA trolls?

Edited June 23, 2012 by Shotoflight

[Shotoflight]

Good summing up Shoto. I have been reading a thread on NI MSE devoted to people who can no longer pay their mortgages - some realistic others expecting a bailout from the taxpayer.

A lot of grief coming down the line. The ones I feel sorry for are the kids who will be forced to give up their home and friends and live with possibly arguing parents.

With regard to the EAs I would never out anyone on the forum. I value my admin privileges and consider anything I learn during my time as a moderator to be confidential.

Fair enough - I respect that. But they engage on false credentials and in bad faith. And can negatively impact on those that engage in good faith. I'm sure you have protocols and procedures. Something to bear in mind for the rest of us.

[tinbin]

This forum has been a good source of entertainment as well ...

I still chuckle to myself about the .. Deploy the blamethrower ... comment a while back.

[tankspeed]

Greetings to all.

This may be my first and last posting. I have felt ,on many occasions, the need to add to add a little something to the site and was finally prompted to by the 50,000 postings milestone. Congratulations to everyone involved.

I would put myself in the class of long time lurker first time poster.

When I say long time lurker I MEAN long time. My story is similar I am sure to many of the posters on this site.

I moved to Belfast in 1997. Initially I wasn't sure if I was going to stay in Belfast so like everyone else I lived in rental accommodation.

Labour came into power and everyone breathed a sign of relief that the the torys were deposed after years in government and labour, the working mans friend was now in charge. First mistake.

Having spent the next few years settling into my job I noticed house prices were beginning to rise. In the early 2000s I looked around at a few places but houses that I wanted to buy were already getting too expensive( my bank which shall remain nameless but begins with N and is a directional point on the compass) decided that I couldn't borrow more than 3.5 times my salary, ( a position I,m sure which changed as the years changed) which at the time I think was about 15 grand so I could borrow no more than about 50 grand. My first foray into the seedy underworld of estate agents and mortgage advisers, my journey into the dark side.

I looked at a few houses in Belfast that I could afford but most them were tiny terraced houses in dodgy areas. The lisburn road had already rocketed skywards and getting change out of 100 grand was impossible for the most basic property. I reasoned that prices couldn't go up forever so resigned myself to saving hard for a larger deposit so when I was finally able to buy my repayments wouldn't be so high. Second mistake.

Property porn was beginning to take off and all aspects of the media were beginning to bombard the general populace with buy buy buy propaganda. Sometimes it is mentioned that the boom took off from 2004 onwards but the fuse was lit well before that.

Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE talked about property and what a smart investment it was.. Vested interests such as chartered surveyors,( just because it says Royal in front of it doesn't mean its honest), financial advisers, mortgage advisors, estate agents,property developers, politicans,( if it says the right honorable in front of it it usually is dishonest ) reassured us that the rise in property was due to strong economic factors such as low interest rates, demand outstripping supply and never ending economic growth( and end to boom and bust). Many , many swallowed the lies.Those that didn't became figures of pity, scorn and ridicule. Social outcasts.

'You still havent bought YET '! was repeated to me until I thought I,d throw up.This was still 2004 /2005. Thankfully by this stage I had discovered House Price Crash.This site presented overwhelming evidence that we were in a bubble and at some stage the bubble would correct itself. Friends who I tried to discourage from buying

pooh poohed my strong empirical evidence gleaned from HPC with anecdotes such as 'house prices never go down', ' look at the prices in the south' , and my personal favourite, ' we've never had a housing crash in NI !'.

There were times I have to admit that I weakened, a discussion with a friend who had come into some money in 2006 nearly seen me jumping onto the ' lets buy together ' bandwagon but for whatever reason I caught cold feet and never followed it through. Maybe the HPC guardian angel was watching over me at the time.All this time ANYONE with an ounce of common sense and a basic level of literacy would have sussed that something was very very wrong with the economy . By 2006/2007 house prices were rising 50% A YEAR, prices were 6,7,8,9 times the basic salary, self certified loans were the norm, aggressive corporate takeovers were taking place on a weekly basis for ever increasing record amounts and still we were told ' alls well, move along, nothing to see here.' This was even after the well documented HPC in the US in 2005 that we were told was confined only to the US. Nothing underhand had been allowed to happen in the UK.After all we had the FSA and MPC to keep a tight rein on any dodgy looking financial dealings.Credit rating housings had marked all banks debts and credits as AAA.

Finally , after much waiting and false dawns the economic miracle that was CDO's imploded and all the banks realized that the money they were supposed to have didn't actually exist. I braced myself for the fall. NOTHING HAPPENED. The collective governments of the western world stampeded in their efforts to keep bankrupt banks , businesses and individuals afloat. Thankfully to date from 2008 in NI the drops have been greater than in many parts of the UK but then again we were the 3rd highest house price region,outside London and UK South East region ,at one stage so we had a lot higher to fall. To those who went ahead and bought contrary to my advice I hate to tell them I told them so but I do anyway.

I still feel we are overpriced with medium range houses and when people ask me now how I think property is heading( a reputation as a long term housing bear who has been proved right in the end) I tell them that houses first of all have to fall back to their long term average 3 -3.5 average earnings( a good average salary in NI is 25,000, I have fortunately climbed the ladder of promotion at work and now earn 40,000-45,000 ), interest rates have to rise at sometime and bank forbearance will not last forever so there may be a flood of cheaper houses coming onto the market, when is impossible to say. BTL mini empires that are teeteering on the edge will also fall and what goes up exponentially during a boom will and does tend to drop exponentially during a bust. I , like all my other HPC comrades have and will continue to weather the storm, large savings for deposits or outright buyers are out there in their thousands. Those that ran with the herd are now tired ,bedazzled and lost. Those individuals who stood from the sidelines in the calm and shook their head in amazement at the stupidity and lawlessness of the herd can stand tall and count themselves lucky that they are the person that they are.

HPC,I salute you all.

[Ride_on]

What does the NI crash say about prospects for the rest of the £ zone?

I suppose alot of the bubble was inflated exclusively by borrowers from south of the border, so maybe the distinction is that simple - once they withdrew there was nobody else to keep things going (like Europeans/Chinese parking money in London RE) and so the bubble had to burst.

But I'm still unsure why Merv's monetary policy seems not to have softened the blow. Is it to do with oversupply? Or is NI a sign of things to come in Britain?

I don't think it says alot really, N.I. got a double bubble from 1995 after the ceasefire, everyone and their grandmother wanted to 'invest' here, debt was increasing and went all out in 2000 after deregulation building up to a mountain in 2007. The momentum of the 2 bubbles meant house prices here went much higher compared to wages than the mainland. This means we have had a much bigger crash, and I don't think its over yet. As for the mainland, I don't think its over either but they will see less further falls compare to us.

To be honest I don't see how it can ever be over in our life time without somehow going mad on debt again but thats another tin hatter story

[Vespasian]

HPC,I salute you all.

Nice post

I used to post a lot but rarely do now, still renting and looking - have yet to put anoffer on actually

I'll start looking again in September but asking prices are still sticky

I've got too used to paying no rates/property maintenance/buildings insurance!

pretty impressive at 50k posts - well done

Edited June 26, 2012 by Vespasian

[tankspeed]

I fear we have become the Estate agents equivalent to car sellers tyre kickers. It won,t be long before you see a sign outside estate agents windows ' No House Price Crashers allowed' . It really must piss them off but then that's as good a reason for doing it as any.

[subby]

I'm mostly a lurker now but I still give the Bel Tel/Helen Carson what for when she posts up drivel

I still pop in here for a nosey though and it's good that we managed to have this board to save people form a lifetimes misery and debt...well done all who stuck to their guns and held back

[okaycuckoo]

I don't think it says alot really, N.I. got a double bubble from 1995 after the ceasefire, everyone and their grandmother wanted to 'invest' here, debt was increasing and went all out in 2000 after deregulation building up to a mountain in 2007. The momentum of the 2 bubbles meant house prices here went much higher compared to wages than the mainland. This means we have had a much bigger crash, and I don't think its over yet. As for the mainland, I don't think its over either but they will see less further falls compare to us.

To be honest I don't see how it can ever be over in our life time without somehow going mad on debt again but thats another tin hatter story

Thanks - that's helpful. And to the others who responded.

My guess is that NI still has some secrets to reveal about the effectiveness of Merv's easing ...

[S S]

Well done NI forum, and to doccyboy for moderating. It must be hard with BelfastBoy and the others............only joking.

[Belfast Boy]

1341055003[/url]' post='909076324']

Well done NI forum, and to doccyboy for moderating. It must be hard with BelfastBoy and the others............only joking.

lol... I miss the heated discussions with the bulls

This forum was and remains an island of sanity in the madness that is the N.I. housing market.

doccyboy has been an excellent moderator.

[cynicalbuyer]

I fear we have become the Estate agents equivalent to car sellers tyre kickers. It won,t be long before you see a sign outside estate agents windows ' No House Price Crashers allowed' . It really must piss them off but then that's as good a reason for doing it as any.

Made me laugh. I put a bid on a house earlier this year which was 10% below RV and 35% off asking. When challenged by the EA I was able to quote on RV, the work required to make the house up to RV and also point that the house was showing on irishhousehunter as being on the market for 3 years, sale agreed 4 times and back on the market each time with a reduced asking price.

I could see the EA change his attitude in the instant, the smarm and bravado were gone to be replaced with a look of contempt. I genuinely thought he was going to tell me to leave the office. His smarm and attitude were back the next day when he called me to say there were other viewers, cash buyers in stronger position than me. I withdrew my offer on the phone and the contempt returned : ) Thank you to this forum and its members for helping me cut through the BS out there and provide me with the knowledge to make informed decisions! I am very glad I did not get this house or many others I thought were unmissable.