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Black Greekend?


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With central bankers around the world on standby, the world is holding it's breath for a round of crucial elections this weekend.

It's a very busy year in elections around the world, from revolutionary political shifts in the Middle East to economic woes driving voters to polls across Europe. And that's not even counting the Romney vs. Obama faceoff in the U.S.

A hectic year comes to a point this weekend. There's a presidential runoff in Egypt. Greeks will try again to decide which party should run the debt-laden country. And France will hold legislative elections that will probably determine how much Francois Hollande can get done during his term as the nation's new president.

Read more:

The weekend which could change the world

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/14/world/weekend-world-elections/' rel="external nofollow">

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The outcome is irrelevant.

No matter who gets in they will be forced to ask for terms consistent with Spain.

Then it's an issue for whether Germany will relent or not.

If yes then it will kick the can down the road.

If no then it will just be an issue until either a bank gets so low on cash it causes a general bank run or the government gets so low on cash it can't afford a debt repayment.

My guess is the Germans have already made their mind up on how they are going to handle this one.

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I suspect this is being over-hyped.

If the election doesn't produce the correct result the Greeks will simply be told to keep re-running it until it does.

:lol:

Yes. Like the Irish and some other countries with various other European treaties. You can say no as many times as you like, but yes is forever.

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Shame it's a weekend.

I suspect markets will show volatility, but rally when there's a known outcome. No matter what that outcome is.

Well the Greek markets were up 10% yesterday and another two today so they are expecting a good outcome.

I was actually toying with shorting the ftse today after the last few days rally. I probably would have done if I was so tight.

Edited by Pent Up
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Well the Greek markets were up 10% yesterday and another two today so they are expecting a good outcome.

I was actually toying with shorting the ftse today after the last few days rally. I probably would have done if I was so tight.

Shorting the FTSE while Merv sits there with his hand on the print button and everyone except the Germans wants to do the same at the ECB is a dangerous game.

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I suspect this is being over-hyped.

If the election doesn't produce the correct result the Greeks will simply be told to keep re-running it until it does.

Polling has been banned.

Avoids some uncomfortable inconsistencies between polling and actual results I would have thought.

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Sitting on cash or shorting the FSTE is effectively betting against the central banks and their willingness to crank the printers. As they have form on this score, I don't fancy the odds.

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Sitting on cash or shorting the FSTE is effectively betting against the central banks and their willingness to crank the printers. As they have form on this score, I don't fancy the odds.

I suspect that within days the Fed will print again.

I joked a month or so ago that we could see the DOW at 15,000 before November if the Fed printed. I am not sure it is such a joke now. Dependent upon the events of this weekend and whether they do print the sensible thing might be to ride the stock rally for 4 or 5 months and then get the heck out.

Edited by The Masked Tulip
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Polling has been banned.

Avoids some uncomfortable inconsistencies between polling and actual results I would have thought.

BBC reporting it's too close to call - how do they know this! Paul Mason didn't think it was close in his graveyard shift Newsnight item this week.

Time for a bit of ballot box stuffing?

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German club, German money, German rules.

Greeks will vote overwhelming to stay. The permanent ESM will be enlarged to allow them to default into it, that's what its been created for.

FTSE up 300 on monday.

Now what's all the fuss about?

laugh.gif

A little more debt never hurt anyone

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Isn't a lot of this hysteria just being created to scare the Greeks into voting for the pro bailout New Democracy party. Not sure why the Greeks want to vote for the party that was in power pre 2008 and created the current mess - but that's their choice I suppose.

Even if by some miracle Syriza wins (its not who votes - but who counts the votes!) there will no doubt be another fudge - they won't allow it all to collapse over Greece.

So enjoy the drama - but it will no doubt be a rather more boring reality!

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Polling has been banned.

Avoids some uncomfortable inconsistencies between polling and actual results I would have thought.

There is good logic behind this. It stops people being asked who they voted for as they leave the polls.

It prevents intimidation.

Did you vote for the elite? Are you sure? I think you lying. I'll add your name to the "probably didn't vote for the correct party and therefore a dangerous terrorist" list.

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Crunch time!

If the Right get in the Bankers win.

But If the leftys get in, what then?

Major Bank run by Monday, Return to Drachma shortly thereafter?

Bankers Lose.

1 in 8 Greeks have not made up their mind who to vote for.

Its on a knife edge.

All the PIIGS bar Ireland have a history of far Right versus far Left civil wars.

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Guest tbatst2000

Crunch time!

If the Right get in the Bankers win.

But If the leftys get in, what then?

Major Bank run by Monday, Return to Drachma shortly thereafter?

Bankers Lose.

1 in 8 Greeks have not made up their mind who to vote for.

Its on a knife edge.

It's way more complex than that as even the right wing lot have had to promise they'll renegotiate to maintain any level of support. I think it'll just end in another fudge with Greece getting slightly better terms, pretending to go ahead with some of the measures, all leading to another theoretical crunch point six months down the line.

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There is good logic behind this. It stops people being asked who they voted for as they leave the polls.

It prevents intimidation.

Did you vote for the elite? Are you sure? I think you lying. I'll add your name to the "probably didn't vote for the correct party and therefore a dangerous terrorist" list.

Possibly in countries where party politics is often accompanied by violence and intimidation of voters. But in Greece?

Exit polls can serve as a means of exposing electoral fraud when the numbers simply don't add up.

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