pl1 Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 With central bankers around the world on standby, the world is holding it's breath for a round of crucial elections this weekend. It's a very busy year in elections around the world, from revolutionary political shifts in the Middle East to economic woes driving voters to polls across Europe. And that's not even counting the Romney vs. Obama faceoff in the U.S. A hectic year comes to a point this weekend. There's a presidential runoff in Egypt. Greeks will try again to decide which party should run the debt-laden country. And France will hold legislative elections that will probably determine how much Francois Hollande can get done during his term as the nation's new president. Read more: The weekend which could change the world http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/14/world/weekend-world-elections/' rel="external nofollow"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Shame it's a weekend. I suspect markets will show volatility, but rally when there's a known outcome. No matter what that outcome is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 You mean the Maya calendar got it wrong by six months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 You mean the Maya calendar got it wrong by six months? Forgot to carry the 2 over. Schoolboy abacus error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Bart' Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Black Greekend? Must be one of the best thread titles in ages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Black Greekend? Must be one of the best thread titles in ages. Greek Blackend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 The outcome is irrelevant. No matter who gets in they will be forced to ask for terms consistent with Spain. Then it's an issue for whether Germany will relent or not. If yes then it will kick the can down the road. If no then it will just be an issue until either a bank gets so low on cash it causes a general bank run or the government gets so low on cash it can't afford a debt repayment. My guess is the Germans have already made their mind up on how they are going to handle this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Greek Blackend And here's a blackened greek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonytramcar Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 I suspect this is being over-hyped. If the election doesn't produce the correct result the Greeks will simply be told to keep re-running it until it does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 I suspect this is being over-hyped. If the election doesn't produce the correct result the Greeks will simply be told to keep re-running it until it does. Yes. Like the Irish and some other countries with various other European treaties. You can say no as many times as you like, but yes is forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 (edited) Shame it's a weekend. I suspect markets will show volatility, but rally when there's a known outcome. No matter what that outcome is. Well the Greek markets were up 10% yesterday and another two today so they are expecting a good outcome. I was actually toying with shorting the ftse today after the last few days rally. I probably would have done if I was so tight. Edited June 15, 2012 by Pent Up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Well the Greek markets were up 10% yesterday and another two today so they are expecting a good outcome. I was actually toying with shorting the ftse today after the last few days rally. I probably would have done if I was so tight. Shorting the FTSE while Merv sits there with his hand on the print button and everyone except the Germans wants to do the same at the ECB is a dangerous game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 I suspect this is being over-hyped. If the election doesn't produce the correct result the Greeks will simply be told to keep re-running it until it does. Polling has been banned. Avoids some uncomfortable inconsistencies between polling and actual results I would have thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justthisbloke Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Sitting on cash or shorting the FSTE is effectively betting against the central banks and their willingness to crank the printers. As they have form on this score, I don't fancy the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 (edited) Sitting on cash or shorting the FSTE is effectively betting against the central banks and their willingness to crank the printers. As they have form on this score, I don't fancy the odds. I suspect that within days the Fed will print again. I joked a month or so ago that we could see the DOW at 15,000 before November if the Fed printed. I am not sure it is such a joke now. Dependent upon the events of this weekend and whether they do print the sensible thing might be to ride the stock rally for 4 or 5 months and then get the heck out. Edited June 15, 2012 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 German club, German money, German rules. Greeks will vote overwhelming to stay. The permanent ESM will be enlarged to allow them to default into it, that's what its been created for. FTSE up 300 on monday. Now what's all the fuss about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmf Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Polling has been banned. Avoids some uncomfortable inconsistencies between polling and actual results I would have thought. BBC reporting it's too close to call - how do they know this! Paul Mason didn't think it was close in his graveyard shift Newsnight item this week. Time for a bit of ballot box stuffing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 German club, German money, German rules. Greeks will vote overwhelming to stay. The permanent ESM will be enlarged to allow them to default into it, that's what its been created for. FTSE up 300 on monday. Now what's all the fuss about? A little more debt never hurt anyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRMX9 Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Isn't a lot of this hysteria just being created to scare the Greeks into voting for the pro bailout New Democracy party. Not sure why the Greeks want to vote for the party that was in power pre 2008 and created the current mess - but that's their choice I suppose. Even if by some miracle Syriza wins (its not who votes - but who counts the votes!) there will no doubt be another fudge - they won't allow it all to collapse over Greece. So enjoy the drama - but it will no doubt be a rather more boring reality! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RufflesTheGuineaPig Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Polling has been banned.Avoids some uncomfortable inconsistencies between polling and actual results I would have thought. There is good logic behind this. It stops people being asked who they voted for as they leave the polls. It prevents intimidation. Did you vote for the elite? Are you sure? I think you lying. I'll add your name to the "probably didn't vote for the correct party and therefore a dangerous terrorist" list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 15, 2012 Report Share Posted June 15, 2012 Meanwhile, in Egypt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 Crunch time! If the Right get in the Bankers win. But If the leftys get in, what then? Major Bank run by Monday, Return to Drachma shortly thereafter? Bankers Lose. 1 in 8 Greeks have not made up their mind who to vote for. Its on a knife edge. All the PIIGS bar Ireland have a history of far Right versus far Left civil wars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tbatst2000 Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 Crunch time! If the Right get in the Bankers win. But If the leftys get in, what then? Major Bank run by Monday, Return to Drachma shortly thereafter? Bankers Lose. 1 in 8 Greeks have not made up their mind who to vote for. Its on a knife edge. It's way more complex than that as even the right wing lot have had to promise they'll renegotiate to maintain any level of support. I think it'll just end in another fudge with Greece getting slightly better terms, pretending to go ahead with some of the measures, all leading to another theoretical crunch point six months down the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuggets Mahoney Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 (edited) All the PIIGS bar Ireland have a history of far Right versus far Left civil wars. And all, if memory serves, with the same result Always bet on black Edited June 16, 2012 by Nuggets Mahoney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted June 17, 2012 Report Share Posted June 17, 2012 There is good logic behind this. It stops people being asked who they voted for as they leave the polls. It prevents intimidation. Did you vote for the elite? Are you sure? I think you lying. I'll add your name to the "probably didn't vote for the correct party and therefore a dangerous terrorist" list. Possibly in countries where party politics is often accompanied by violence and intimidation of voters. But in Greece? Exit polls can serve as a means of exposing electoral fraud when the numbers simply don't add up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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