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Fooling The People Some Of The Time

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With all the talk about soft landings from lenders, many home buyers have been fooled into buying in recent weeks.

Their belief that house prices have 'stabilised' could not be more wrong. The real truth though is that prices are getting hammered in some areas. In the post code WD4 for example, the peak market price (for an average property) last year was £395K and today it is £275K (this is not a one off and there are plenty of other areas like this).

As the current statistics feed into the wider public domain, people will realise that they have been deceived. It will be much more difficult for the lenders to repeat their little propoganda coup of this autumn.

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With all the talk about soft landings from lenders, many home buyers have been fooled into buying in recent weeks.

Their belief that house prices have 'stabilised' could not be more wrong. The real truth though is that prices are getting hammered in some areas. In the post code WD4 for example, the peak market price (for an average property) last year was £395K and today it is £275K (this is not a one off and there are plenty of other areas like this).

As the current statistics feed into the wider public domain, people will realise that they have been deceived. It will be much more difficult for the lenders to repeat their little propoganda coup of this autumn.

The Land Registry disagrees with you. Go and check their figures for postcode sector WD4 8.

Q1 2004 -- Detached 358K, Semi 221K, Terrace 203K, Flat 134K, Overall 208K

Q1 2005 -- Detached 329K, Semi 224K, Terrace 242K, Flat 149K, Overall 228K

Q2 2005 -- Detached 374K, Semi 262K, Terrace 227K, Flat 150K, Overall 260K

It's a pretty small sample size, so it fluctuates rather, but the trend in actual sold prices is clearly still upwards.

(I used WD4 8 because it has a lot more transactions than the only other postcode sector in WD4, which is WD4 9.)

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whatever prices people now pay.. low or higher..

The economy knows.. the MPC knows.. we all know.. that they cannot be sustained in the larger economy.

All the signs of the damage caused by massive financial shift into debt repayments can be seen.. The economy, like a sleeping giant.. is moving back to where it should be..

Keep pulling at one bit.. and eventually something gives..

What has caused more confidence in the market are the repeated speculation in the media that interest rates will drop, that house prices won't

That it is impossible does not stop the media and VI's from spinning it.. and currently the damage that has been caused has not maifested enough for everyone to notice the connection.

Sentiment will take the market down, but only after economic forces have caused the turn.. this has happened..

But we can't pretend that people do not have access to unlimited borrowing.

We can't pretend that people are weighing up how much they can afford.

What happens now is innevitable.

So bulls.. do not rejoice when prices rise and people buy.. this will only make the eventual drop harder..

They economy is desperate for the money back.. and will not be happy if it loses more..

any bull who can argue this.. please do..

and I know that the money is still out there..

but it is not where it used to be.. and the economy is geared to where it used to be.. It cannot change to where it is now without massive impact.. and as always this massive impact causes problems.. but does not allow the shift..

So bulls.. instead of showing that house prices can still rise.. tell me how they can be sustained.

A fool and his money is soon parted.. But the Economy is not easily fooled..and the money belongs to the economy

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The Land Registry disagrees with you. Go and check their figures for postcode sector WD4 8.

Q1 2004 -- Detached 358K, Semi 221K, Terrace 203K, Flat 134K, Overall 208K

Q1 2005 -- Detached 329K, Semi 224K, Terrace 242K, Flat 149K, Overall 228K

Q2 2005 -- Detached 374K, Semi 262K, Terrace 227K, Flat 150K, Overall 260K

It's a pretty small sample size, so it fluctuates rather, but the trend in actual sold prices is clearly still upwards.

(I used WD4 8 because it has a lot more transactions than the only other postcode sector in WD4, which is WD4 9.)

Zorn

Go to this link: http://www.upmystreet.com/

Type WD4 and then hit the link for 'house prices'. Then hit the link for 'All properties - average prices'

When you have done that, have a look at what you see and then come back and apologise for being so stupid. Idiot!

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Guest Bart of Darkness
When you have done that, have a look at what you see and then come back and apologise for being so stupid. Idiot!

Zorn merely dances to the tune his NuLabour master play. There's no point in getting angry with a sock puppet.

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Zorn

Go to this link: http://www.upmystreet.com/

Type WD4 and then hit the link for 'house prices'. Then hit the link for 'All properties - average prices'

When you have done that, have a look at what you see and then come back and apologise for being so stupid. Idiot!

What you're seeing there is an artifact of the Land Registry's lack of mix-adjustment, and nothing more. In Q1, they have 22 transactions in WD4 8 (at an average of £228K) and 10 in the very much more expensive WD4 9 (at an average of £635K). In Q2, they have 30 in WD4 8 (average of £260K) and only 3 in WD4 9 (average of £427K). The drop they're reporting is an artifact of the increase in transactions in the cheaper area and the decrease in the more expensive area. And yes, that's a big drop in WD4 9, but on only three transactions it proves nothing.

If you look at Watford as a whole, in search of a decent sample size, there are 333 transactions in Q1, average price £215K and 374 transactions in Q2 (with more to come), average price £213K. So there's around a 1% drop in the area as a whole, except that the higher value transactions tend to take a little longer to come in, and so the more recent figures are a bit understated. To avoid this problem, compare the Land Registry figures from their quarterly reports, which are a true like-for-like comparison. You have to look at all of Hertfordshire, and it has insufficient granularity to see just Watford. Q1, 3207 transactions, £249K. Q2, 4,274 transactions, £250K. This is not an area with a collapsing market -- it's not really going up or down significantly.

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What you're seeing there is an artifact of the Land Registry's lack of mix-adjustment, and nothing more. In Q1, they have 22 transactions in WD4 8 (at an average of £228K) and 10 in the very much more expensive WD4 9 (at an average of £635K). In Q2, they have 30 in WD4 8 (average of £260K) and only 3 in WD4 9 (average of £427K). The drop they're reporting is an artifact of the increase in transactions in the cheaper area and the decrease in the more expensive area. And yes, that's a big drop in WD4 9, but on only three transactions it proves nothing.

If you look at Watford as a whole, in search of a decent sample size, there are 333 transactions in Q1, average price £215K and 374 transactions in Q2 (with more to come), average price £213K. So there's around a 1% drop in the area as a whole, except that the higher value transactions tend to take a little longer to come in, and so the more recent figures are a bit understated. To avoid this problem, compare the Land Registry figures from their quarterly reports, which are a true like-for-like comparison. You have to look at all of Hertfordshire, and it has insufficient granularity to see just Watford. Q1, 3207 transactions, £249K. Q2, 4,274 transactions, £250K. This is not an area with a collapsing market -- it's not really going up or down significantly.

I anticipated that a vested interest would attempt to respin the numbers. That is why I pointed out that the same effect can be seen elsewhere. There are literally hundreds of post codes showing similar profiles.

Bart of Darkness was right - You are just a mouthpiece for the new labour spin machine.

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I anticipated that a vested interest would attempt to respin the numbers. That is why I pointed out that the same effect can be seen elsewhere. There are literally hundreds of post codes showing similar profiles.

Bart of Darkness was right - You are just a mouthpiece for the new labour spin machine.

There are postcodes going up, there are postcodes going down. What do the national figures show?

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There are postcodes going up, there are postcodes going down. What do the national figures show?

Zorn

You are like an engineer on the Titanic giving a damage report and telling the skipper that 95% of the ships hull appears to be in perfect condition after the iceburg collision.

If you look at the trends on upmystreet, you will find hundreds of areas where wild downward swings have occurred in recent weeks. There is nothing on the chart history (back to 1996) that resembles the price movements that we are currently seeing in many areas. Prices simply do not lurch downwards in healthy markets. It is madness that you even try to go on spinning in the face of such evidence.

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Take Salford as an example of a large (generally poor) metropolitan area and look at the data from land registry ; it gives you a much larger sample size..

Q1 2004.. Overall £97K --- 1392 sales

Q2 2004.. Overall £106k --- 1754 sales

Q3 2004.. Overall £122K --- 1647 sales

Q4 2004.. Overall £123k --- 1354 sales

Q1 2005.. Overall £124K --- 934 sales

Q2 2005.. Overall £115K --- 906 sales

Highlighted is the combined peak period for both sales and price achieved. - It was last summer. A year on prices are falling and activity is little over half of what it was.

If Q3 continues this trend ...

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Why are people being so hard on zorn? This thread just illustrates the difficulty of determining an average price for property. At least zorn has objective figures to back up his argument.

What I think is interesting here is that lower-end property is being pushed down in value, while upper-end property is not. This suggests the bottom of the market is falling away. And what happens when the bottom end of a bubble market falls away?

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Why are people being so hard on zorn? This thread just illustrates the difficulty of determining an average price for property. At least zorn has objective figures to back up his argument.

What I think is interesting here is that lower-end property is being pushed down in value, while upper-end property is not. This suggests the bottom of the market is falling away. And what happens when the bottom end of a bubble market falls away?

Number 6

I would entirely accept that there is conflicting evidence out there but Zorn does not endear himself to people with responses like this:

The Land Registry disagrees with you. Go and check their figures for postcode sector WD4 8.

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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