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teddyboy

Ftse And Dow Go Mad!

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OH dear!

All that Doom and Gloom about the economic market has gone tits up.

FTSE 100 5207.6 UP 65.50

Dax 4901.8 UP 63.39

Cac 40 4422.0 UP 55.45

Dow Jones 10385.0 UP 169.78

Nasdaq 2115.8 UP 33.62

Think this is the reason why

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4372562.stm

What do we know about him? Is he GOOD for the chances of a HPC or BAD NEWS? Answers in PLAIN english please ;)

TB

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Guest Bart of Darkness
What do we know about him? Is he GOOD for the chances of a HPC or BAD NEWS?

Makes no difference. It's happening now and will happen regardless. Unless government and public financial behavior changes drastically that is.

Don't hold your breath though.

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At worst for us he may be able to slow / delay the HPC, but he cannot stop it.

Why? Well the US consumer represents 20% of the global consumer market. If he/she stops shopping the rest of us are out of a job. The trouble is the US consumer as been MEW'ing to pay for most of the sales growth in the US, just like over here. I cannot see that continuing for much longer, not with all the bad news hitting the US at the moment. Everything from hurricanes to big household names like GM and Ford suffering huge losses and laying tens of thousands of workers off.

Confidence is taking a serious battering just at the moment. This years consumer data for Xmas in the US will be interesting. If Walmart start reporting poor figures things ain't good.

Edited by FTBagain

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Guest The_Oldie
the moral is do not base your decisions on self proclaimed experts on anonimous internet discussion boards.

Exactly why I'm not rushing out to buy a house as a result of your constant ramping of the property market :rolleyes:.

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OH dear!

All that Doom and Gloom about the economic market has gone tits up.

FTSE 100 5207.6 UP 65.50

Dax 4901.8 UP 63.39

Cac 40 4422.0 UP 55.45

Dow Jones 10385.0 UP 169.78

Nasdaq 2115.8 UP 33.62

Think this is the reason why

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4372562.stm

What do we know about him? Is he GOOD for the chances of a HPC or BAD NEWS? Answers in PLAIN english please ;)

TB

Good of you to include some charts so we can see what a trivial bounce in the markets looks like. I would never have been able to visualise a line going up a little bit - those graphs were a big help.

But, back to reality. Our economy is doomed. Throughout stock market history - stock markets over-react to any titbit of news. It's up to you matey. There are two markets my money is not going into at the moment. One's the UK property market and the other is the UK stock market.

Hope you are investing in both.

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Last week some poor fella/lady had based his decisions on DrBubb's comments about stock market crash and sold out and was saying he/she was grateful... I don't mean to be controversial but do you think that was a bad thing to do? The Dow has reversed the losses and is going back up to the level (or above) which that person sold out and the FTSE has crept back up again since last week ... oops .... the moral is do not base your decisions on self proclaimed experts on anonimous internet discussion boards.

I found that post very strange as the poster claimed he had an options account, normally the sign of a fairly sophisticated investor. I would not expect someone of that ilk that to act, rather sycophantically, on the nod from a bulletin board poster. Especially a poster who (under another name) was advising folk over on www.advfn.com ( a financial site) to sell their property in early 2001 !!

Edited by ILBB

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Last week some poor fella/lady had based his decisions on DrBubb's comments about stock market crash and sold out and was saying he/she was grateful... I don't mean to be controversial but do you think that was a bad thing to do? The Dow has reversed the losses and is going back up to the level (or above) which that person sold out and the FTSE has crept back up again since last week ... oops .... the moral is do not base your decisions on self proclaimed experts on anonimous internet discussion boards.

I agree with you, one of the basic dictum regarding investment is not to blindly take the words of posters in anonymous forums.

However, you are being unfair on Dr Bubb. He has always maintained that whatever he says is his opinion only; as far as I can remember, he has not given any one investment advices on what to do with their money. He always explains his position well with the support of graphs etc in clear terms. If some one blindly did some thing based on these without doing their own research, it is their mistake only. You should not blame Dr Bubb. You are getting free research opinions when some so called financial advisors charge you huge amounts.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Last week some poor fella/lady had based his decisions on DrBubb's comments about stock market crash and sold out and was saying he/she was grateful... I don't mean to be controversial but do you think that was a bad thing to do? The Dow has reversed the losses and is going back up to the level (or above) which that person sold out and the FTSE has crept back up again since last week ... oops .... the moral is do not base your decisions on self proclaimed experts on anonimous internet discussion boards.

Last week some poor fella/lady(apollo1966) said inflation was

going to fall due to the "sinking oil price", little did they realize

it's up about 40% y-o-y. :D:D

Edited by Time 2 raise Interest Rates

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OH dear!

All that Doom and Gloom about the economic market has gone tits up.

FTSE 100 5207.6 UP 65.50

Dax 4901.8 UP 63.39

Cac 40 4422.0 UP 55.45

Dow Jones 10385.0 UP 169.78

Nasdaq 2115.8 UP 33.62

Think this is the reason why

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4372562.stm

What do we know about him? Is he GOOD for the chances of a HPC or BAD NEWS? Answers in PLAIN english please ;)

TB

?????? FTSE DOWN 6.5% since OCT 3rd ?????

Going down, not mad.

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Good of you to include some charts so we can see what a trivial bounce in the markets looks like. I would never have been able to visualise a line going up a little bit - those graphs were a big help.

But, back to reality. Our economy is doomed. Throughout stock market history - stock markets over-react to any titbit of news. It's up to you matey. There are two markets my money is not going into at the moment. One's the UK property market and the other is the UK stock market.

Hope you are investing in both.

Marina,

I am not a `BULL' and it wasnt meant to be a bullish statement. I was mearly pointing out that I was enthralled at the rate at which the stock market has dropped in the last 4 weeks. Alls I was stating was the falls of the past week or two have been wiped out. Which I am quite pissed about to be honest.

I dont want a crash in the STOCK MARKET or HOUSES. I want CORRECTION in housing. It needs that hand to push it over the edge and the STOCK MARKET is probably the best thing we have to bring on CORRECTION. I am not investing in either stocks or housing. I just want something to bring on the 'correction' a bit quicker.

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Last week some poor fella/lady had based his decisions on DrBubb's comments about stock market crash and sold out and was saying he/she was grateful... I don't mean to be controversial but do you think that was a bad thing to do? The Dow has reversed the losses and is going back up to the level (or above) which that person sold out and the FTSE has crept back up again since last week ... oops .... the moral is do not base your decisions on self proclaimed experts on anonimous internet discussion boards.

I think he also mentioned the possibility of a rally btw the at the time of writting the ftse is down 16 to 5,191.40 .

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Hi Apollo1966,

I was probably that man! In light of the stock market bounce yesterday I thought I'd update my old portfolio spreadsheet to see how my meagre array of stocks got on, and currently I'd still be making a loss:

200 National Grid - Cost £1043.86 - Value £1031.72 - Gain (£12.14)

186 United Utilities - Cost £1248.63 - Value £1153.01 - Gain (£95.62) (Ouch!)

210 Merchants Trust - Cost £808.21 - Value £794.18 - Gain (14.03)

250 Barclays - Cost £1334.43 - Value £1386.25 - Gain £51.82

910 Legal & General Group - Cost £998.31 - Value £973.25 - Gain (£25.06)

130 Diageo - Cost £1015.68 - Value £1068.48 - Gain £52.80

230 Rexam - Cost £1134.45 - Value £1109.75 - Gain (£24.70)

Overall gain = (£66.93)

In defence of Dr Bubb, and my own investment decisions at the time, I would like to highlight some points made in my post, and provide some background on why I sold up:

(Apologies if this goes on a bit, but I would like to set the record straight on this one...)

1) Once I read Dr Bubb's thread on the US stock market I decided to set a target scenario to cash in my stocks, which was when overall purchase cost = value. The shares I held each pay above-average yields - I chose them because I ultimately wanted to beat my bank's e-savings rate (then 3.4% net) - any capital appreciation I made in the course of the exercise would have been a bonus (plus I'd have the dubious fun of watching numbers go up and down each day). The exercise itself was intended to be a short to mid-term affair as the money invested formed 2/3 of the deposit I am building, which could be called upon at any time. At the time I made the decision I was around £300 up on my shares, plus another £180 gain banked through selling my holding in BP, plus around £110 in dividends, and so selling up when my target scenario came around (for an overall loss of £9) wasn't much of a wrench, as I'd have only made £90 for the same money at the bank as opposed to the £280 I made.

2) I also made the point that investors should do their own research when putting money down on anything. If one’s decisions are made solely on the posts made on a single internet forum then, quite frankly they’re a bit of a tool. They are easy meat for the kind of scum that stuff my Inbox full of tips on crap stocks they bought on the cheap. No. One should always do some legwork (working in a stockbroking environment also helps!) While Dr Bubb's thread did inspire me to create a sale scenario, it was not the only piece I relied on. One could blame the FTSE’s drop on the usual October stock market storms, but in addition to that there was (and still is) a lot of bad news coming out about the UK economy, and even worse stuff about the US economy. The brakes have been applied to various “darling” indicators (e.g. house price inflation, economic growth), while other less savoury indicators are starting to skyrocket (e.g. CPI) or threatening to (e.g. interest rates, unemployment figures). I didn’t like the uncertainty, which bolstered my resolve to stick to my sale scenario when it rather quickly came to be!

3) I’m approaching something of a crossroads at the moment. I’m currently sharing a house with two others, but one is having to relocate after landing a job in the Midlands (shortly after being made redundant, too - have faith FaTB! :)). Therefore there is a real chance I will need to move house at the end of November. With the small gains I made in my investment exercise, plus the couple of grand I added to my savings in the interim I have reached a point where I feel I could just about to buy a place with a 5% deposit (plus fees and kitting out costs) and keep my other housemate as a lodger. Even though buying a house at the moment would be a last resort for me (I’d rather rent for another year and build up a 10-15% deposit) I would like to have as many options (and as much cash) open to me as possible for the time being. If nothing happens then that’s fine. I can then take stock of the markets and re-enter or keep in cash.

Anyway, apologies for the long post again, but I just wanted Dr Bubb (and other readers of this forum) to know that the decisions I made were ultimately my own.

Oh, and if the guy/gal you were referring to was not me, Apollo1966, then my apologies also!

Kind regards,

Cheston

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A "higher low" between 5000-5100 is perfectly consistent with the rising trend. Panic if the FTSE falls below last May's 4800, but not before.

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Last week some poor fella/lady had based his decisions on DrBubb's comments about stock market crash and sold out and was saying he/she was grateful... I don't mean to be controversial but do you think that was a bad thing to do? The Dow has reversed the losses and is going back up to the level (or above) which that person sold out and the FTSE has crept back up again since last week ... oops .... the moral is do not base your decisions on self proclaimed experts on anonimous internet discussion boards.

It's this sort of comment that prompts me to encourage Doc to not give up posting on the short term calls, which, as far as I can make out, have been 100% correct and tradeable.

The longer term always leaves one open to criticism as indices wind their way to their eventual destination.

I hear more often than not that it is the long term that is easiest to call. Maybe. But to trade the longterm can be a nightmare for novices who watch the market closely. They see a big fall and think "here we go, it's now or never" and panic short. Next thing we get a reaction, they're in loss and closing the short.

To my mind it is this red bit that is the downfall of most new traders. Folks are constantly bombared with the view that the short term is dangerous and that you should tie money up for the long term, but here is something to consider. When you focus on the short term, you realise the market present sopportunities every day. When you realise this , you start to become immune to the braying hordes constantly telling you "not to miss out," and you lose that "now or never" attitude that charcaterises so many poor trading decisions.

Whether folks have the time to watch the markets in such detail is of course another matter. Just remember, if you can't watch the markets short term, don't expect to time the markets short term, and don't expect your longterm plays to stay on the right side of short term oscillations.

Edited by Sledgehead

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I found that post very strange as the poster claimed he had an options account, normally the sign of a fairly sophisticated investor. I would not expect someone of that ilk that to act, rather sycophantically, on the nod from a bulletin board poster. Especially a poster who (under another name) was advising folk over on www.advfn.com ( a financial site) to sell their property in early 2001 !!

Wow, early 2001.

Bubb has made many housing and SM predictions since I joined last year, none of which has come true. Also he drenches everything in caveats. No different to Tarrow card readers. He gets away with because he uses insider language that dazzles so many bears.

I get no such accolades for my correct predictions late last year; Rates will fall & the SM wasnt due to burst in Spring and that the SM would begin to attract volume retail investing once again.

Ok, I also said prices wouldnt 'crash' due to lack of a sudden catalyist (even though I was selling my B2Ls) in 2005, but I conceded I might have got that wrong.

I dont want accolades, but it does amuse me that so many 'buy - into' the words of Dr Bubb because he uses expert language and graphs.

Ive always said gut - feel and observation are far better tools.

Years ago I called Radio 5 live and predicted race riots between blacks and asians, based on my observation that most asian Women tend not to date black men. This observation made me question the reason for such behaviour as it was plain that only Asians acted in such a group - way (white / black relationships were / are clearly visible). The 'race expert' on R 5 Live, scoffed 'you have no evidence for such a ridiculous claim'. In fact my evidence (based on simple observation) was far more incisive than his academic nonsense. Such people told me 20 years ago that multi - culturalism was the way forward, yet I with no evidence realised immediately this would only serve to entrench 'difference'.

Experts are usually very detatched people. They tend to react to the past and stats rather than spot subtle trends on the street.

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If I was a betting man (and I am) I would go long on the Dow. Could be going to 10,600-10,500

Go long

....I really don't like the dow as an index.

...Nikkei is where the action is.

risk vs reward is what you have to go by......as it stands,japan is lower risk and higher potential reward than almost any other main index.

just look at the plusses in japan.

no housing boom/bust scenario

business capital spending has been increasing for a few years

domestic consumers are sppending again

technological edge of jap companies over US/Euro companies gives them a lead.

rising regional growth which japan will feed off.

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Bubb has made many housing and SM predictions since I joined last year, none of which has come true. Also he drenches everything in caveats. No different to Tarrow card readers. He gets away with because he uses insider language that dazzles so many bears.

You couldnt be more wrong if you tried. The good Dr uses science. Not fortune telling. He makes predictions within the limits of the models he is using. I think you are unhappy primarily because you dont understand what he is saying and hence are interpretting it incorrectly. You have you're own model but you lack the skills to explain or justify it and hence better or worse it is more or less useless. Opinions are just words and words are only wind. If we relied on opinions we would still be sitting round in a cave scratching our arses.

Edited by jellybean

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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