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Sterling Down On Weak House Prices, Profit Warnings

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...ERLING-OPEN.XML

Sterling down on weak house prices, profit warnings

LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Sterling edged lower against the dollar and came off a four-week high versus the euro on Monday as reports of a decline in British house prices in October and rising profit warnings by listed companies dampened investor sentiment.
:lol:

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So I guess there's no chance of a rate cut then? :lol::lol:

New evidence of a slowdown in house prices comes after data last week showed British retail sales in September grew more than expected

Analysts say conflicting UK economic data means that the Bank of Englands is likely to keep interest rates on hold in the near future.

"It is unlikely that the bank is going to effect a rate cut anytime soon. Any improvement in risk appetite is going to help sterling. It's still a high-yielding currency," said Lena Komileva, market economist at Tullet Liberty.

Markets have been speculating about a possible interest rate cut in November after the BoE cut rates in August by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent, the first cut in two years.

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So I guess there's no chance of a rate cut then? :lol::lol:

Not likely in the immediate future I feel but as recent energy and commodity price rises drop out of the index next year I'm pretty sure we'll see some fairly agressive cuts, perhaps down as far as 3.25%.

Let's face it there's no pricing pressure from the labour market and, as the worlds economies slow, it's quite likely that oil (and other energy/commodity) prices may well fall by 30% - quite deflationary really and as the banks brief is to keep inflation around 2% they'll use their one tool fits all option which is to drop rates and hope for a consumer boomlet.

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Not likely in the immediate future I feel but as recent energy and commodity price rises drop out of the index next year I'm pretty sure we'll see some fairly agressive cuts, perhaps down as far as 3.25%.

Let's face it there's no pricing pressure from the labour market and, as the worlds economies slow, it's quite likely that oil (and other energy/commodity) prices may well fall by 30% - quite deflationary really and as the banks brief is to keep inflation around 2% they'll use their one tool fits all option which is to drop rates and hope for a consumer boomlet.

Oil prices are unlikely to drop.

We are told that the problems in the gulf highligted issues with growing demands on a decreasing supply.

If the pound drops as it is.. and confidence in our currency falls then rate rises will be needed to combat this.

Low rates got us here.. there is no good argument that they can undo what they have done.

the country needs investment.. whilst people have been "making" money through their homes.. they have not been investing elsewhere.. which has caused the current situation..

Instead of invested money... we have titanic debt invested against an appreciated asset that only has a percieved value and makes no money for the economy.

This sort of asset value shift cannot be sustained with the sort of money it requires

Pensions are also failing.. they need invetment..

THE COUNTRY IS DEPSERATE FOR HIGH INTEREST RATES. A MINORITY IN DEBT TO THEIR EYEBALLS DON'T..

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Oil prices are unlikely to drop.

Oil prices are already dropping and, according to Lord Browne of BP, oil is expected to trade around the $40 mark in the medium term. If the market felt this was not the case I'd imagine that BPs share price would be considerably higher. As it is it's price is no higher now than it was in July 2001.

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Oil prices are already dropping and, according to Lord Browne of BP, oil is expected to trade around the $40 mark in the medium term.

So why are oil futures above $60 out to May '07, and $55 in 2011? Obviously the people with money disagree with his 'expectations'.

The only way I can see oil dropping to $40 is if there's a global recession.

Edited by MarkG

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There is some speculation that the recent dip in oil prices may be associated witht eh fallout from Refco and the unwinding of poisitons as a result.

As for the short/medium term - apparently garages are getting prepared for the installation of new 4-digit displays, if we were looking at a short term peak in the 90p region a sticky £1 label would have sufficed and cost a lot less.

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The only way I can see oil dropping to $40 is if there's a global recession.

Well, most commentators believe that the major part of the present boom is down to the American consumer 'overconsuming', in part due to their MEWing. But there's a limit to just how long that can last especially with their savings now going negative. If no one else picks up the spending baton, such as the Japs, then we will have a slowdown at least if not a recession as such.

But if you're really convinced that oil will stay at $60 then I'd start buying the oil majors 'cause virtually every $ above $25 goes straight through to their bottom line and I don't think that's reflected in their share price!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

more deflationary pressure so good news for interest rate and inflation doves.

Oh well if you say so. :)

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Agree entirely. And if Hometrack's dropping prices are real (though I doubt it very much as it's always completely at odds with the fuller data from LR and Also FT index which still shows 3 % annual rises) then there will be more deflationary pressure so good news for interest rate and inflation doves.

WTF>? You talk really do talk utter sh1te. Global rates are rising not falling. By spring next year, world rates could have gone up significantly.

Sterling has been wobbling today because of the changing sentiment, which could lead to more inflation as import prices go up. What do you think will happen to Sterling and inflation if we reduce rates while the world is raising. Mervyn and the others have been pretty clear in recent statements.

You were probably one of the ones on the band wagon about "several rate cuts before X-Mas"

Carry on dreaming. . . . .

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WTF>? You talk really do talk utter sh1te. Global rates are rising not falling. By spring next year, world rates could have gone up significantly.

Sterling has been wobbling today because of the changing sentiment, which could lead to more inflation as import prices go up. What do you think will happen to Sterling and inflation if we reduce rates while the world is raising. Mervyn and the others have been pretty clear in recent statements.

You were probably one of the ones on the band wagon about "several rate cuts before X-Mas"

Carry on dreaming. . . . .

You appear to be a little dreamy yourself, Sterling is not 'wobbling' and in fact is rather high against a range of currencies compared to earlier in the year. HPCers have a magnificent tendency to rave about the meerest sliver of 'supportive' news whilst ignoring anything 'counter'.

Edited by BoredTrainBuilder

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You appear to be a little dreamy yourself, Sterling is not 'wobbling' and in fact is rather high against a range of currencies compared to earlier in the year. HPCers have a magnificent tendency to rave about the meerest sliver of 'supportive' news whilst ignoring anything 'counter'.

As above, this seems to be the take on it:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...ERLING-OPEN.XML

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Be nice to see opinion backed up with reasoning.

Google news "interest rates", check the global trend.

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Approximately 0.07% off the country is desparate for high interest rates (the population of HPC.co.uk).

I am not sure that is true. Not everyone has a big mortgage around their neck. Anyone with more savings than debt (lots of elderly people) and young people not in the market yet (apart from student debt - which is cheap) would like high interest rates.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I am not sure that is true. Not everyone has a big mortgage around their neck. Anyone with more savings than debt (lots of elderly people) and young people not in the market yet (apart from student debt - which is cheap) would like high interest rates.

Or a return to a sensible neutral rate.

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Guest struthitsruth

That might be something to do with ahem.. Us.

*gasp* not HPC spin, surely ??

:lol:

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So why are oil futures above $60 out to May '07, and $55 in 2011? Obviously the people with money disagree with his 'expectations'.

The only way I can see oil dropping to $40 is if there's a global recession.

$55 in 2011? That must be pricing in a global recession surely? That sounds like fantasy figures to me. Where is all this extra capacity going to come from? Especially as global warming batters the oil platforms with hurricanes.

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That might be something to do with ahem.. Us. Think there was a link posted the other night and the figures doubled in 5 minutes!!!!

Oops, missed that one. 71% now.

Edited by Tempest

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  • 331 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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