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Residential Property Price Index exclusive thread


2buyornot2buy
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Possibly - given that Q1 was the lowest index on record. Although Q2 has returned only 1 +ve index since 2007.

I'm still hoping for a negative value though - a work colleague just bought a place reduced from £220k to £170k which they got accepted at £150k. Not sure what house number it was, but a quick scan on LPS would indicate it is at least 11% below DCV.

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Duh

Date of release given at this link

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/HousePriceIndex/hpi.html

Interesting presentation. Slide 31 - terrace houses 20% below 2005, detached at 2005.

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/presentation_on_northern_ireland_residential_property_price_index_-_23_may_2012.pptx

Watch out for a Bel Tel no show tomorrow again.

With prices falling at 7% per quarter and 13% per annum from the last report I can see nothing to halt this trend.

At the very least they don't try to spin this one, unlike the repetitive and increasingly irritating UUJ/EA sample.

This is a different animal altogether.

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I missed the date on your other post shoto.

Wait is the UU one out tomorrow?

UU seems to vary. Last year was 5 August. It just seems to appear as and when they get their fingers out. Personally I'm surprised they are continuing with it and that NIHE are still contributing to it.

DSD are over NIHE, and they have quoted RPPI in their reports or surveys which you posted earlier so there's costly duplication of scarce taxpayers resources for involvement in an inferior report. Which one do you think would be used for Govt policy making?

If UUJ do continue and release soon, they may have the wit not to issue on the same day or close to RPPI, especially if they have some "good" news about reaching the bottom or some sh*te.

I'm expecting the action to move to the middle market (closing the gap with the bottom) which will keep falls healthy for many months to come yet and more repos to come from the mid market also - I'm starting to see this already.

Reality has gone mainstream.

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Sales volumes have decreased by over 5% from Q1 to Q2 in 2012 which is the first time this has happened in the history of the figures provided in the report (since 2005) - even through the peak and crash...!

I expected that with with all the auction activity (and soundbites in the media on volumes) that sales volumes would be up - anyone have insight? Is there likely to be Q2 sales not yet included in the report?

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Another excellent and detailed report.

Q1 to Q2 drop in NI of 3% (I expected more with all the repo's)

Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's)

Volume in first 6 months of this year up 20% on same period as last year.

It really is great to see 11% drops in the past 12 months. No point jumping in when we are see these crash level drops.

7% below Q1 2005 and still dropping.

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Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's)

I did notice that and was slightly disappointed as this is the area in which I'm looking. Hopefully, the overall negativity will put some downward pressure on this particular stat, although I would not be confident of it. Next quarter will hopefully show a negative probably as it will be into the slow months for property sales.

Edited by ravedave
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I did notice that and was slightly disappointed as this is the area in which I'm looking. Hopefully, the overall negativity will put some downward pressure on this particular stat, although I would not be confident of it. Next quarter will show a negative probably as it will be into the slow months for property sales.

If it's the Newtownabbey area you are looking at I wonder what effect price props such as the Momentum Packages are having. This package offers a 100% deposit; attractive fixed rates and protection against falling house prices and it seems properties offered under this package, in the Aylesbury development in particular, are selling reasonably well at £139K.

This has the knock on effect of distorting the re-sale market - owners convinced their property is worth more than the 3 bed semi new builds. They also appear to be being used as comparables by EA's - who of course do not mention the Momentum Package as well.

I'm also finding there are very few houses on the market in the N'abbey area that could be described as "step up" houses in general.

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So the average house price in Northern Ireland has fallen £12,000 in the last year and the average yearly rent is £6,000? So the average person would save more than £6,000 a year by continuing to rent. No mortgage interest payments and rents usually include rates, insurance and maintanence. So it is still not the best time to buy.

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A 7% drop in the past 6 months (3 with stamp duty subsidy - spring bounce etc) is good enough for me.

Looking forward to the middle market and all geographic areas coming to the party properly, cuts to kick in, and other banks to follow the lead of the Northern and Santander with SVRs approaching 5% - in a very short timeframe.

As an aside, I believe NISRA are looking at identifying auction/repo sales within the figures with a view to publishing numbers/percentages which would tell a tale in respect of overall sales.

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Another excellent and detailed report.

Q1 to Q2 drop in NI of 3% (I expected more with all the repo's)

Belfast and outer Belfast recorded no drops (again I expected more with all the prop's)

Volume in first 6 months of this year up 20% on same period as last year.

Table 4

Detached -4% QonQ

Semi detached -6% QonQ

Terrace +3% QonQ

apartments -7% QonQ

Mid market coming to the party.

20% more sales (how many at auction?) = 12% drop. Long may it last.

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